Hut 8Short · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-09Bearish
Structural led a bearish call; the other agents split, so conviction reflects the disagreement.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.62
.39
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 8.7 (falling -10.3 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.333
Industry Index falling -10.3 [no link]−0.24643%
Industry Index level 8.7 [no link]−0.08715%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.333
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.43, confidence 0.30 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.204
▸Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0488%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0488%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0234%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0214%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0183%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0143%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0143%
OBV (short) [no link]−0.0122%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0071%
Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]+0.0071%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0041%
ADX 15 (trend strength 0.37) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.20 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 44 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.204
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 61% / put 39% (net skew 0.21), unusualness 35/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 5 days.
+0.022
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.022
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.62.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.515
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.62
→
Conviction
0.39
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.39 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-09 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26