Silicon Motion TechnologyShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-09Bearish
Structural carried this call — it supplied almost the entire lean; the other voters nearly net out.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.64
.35
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
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Structural Driver
Industry Index 8.8 (falling -8.3 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.400
Industry Index falling -8.3 [no link]−0.29650%
Industry Index level 8.8 [no link]−0.10418%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.400
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.06, confidence 0.24 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.028
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]+0.06010%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0427%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0234%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0152%
OBV (short) [no link]+0.0122%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0102%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0081%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]+0.0061%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0041%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0020%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0000%
ADX 15 (trend strength 0.37) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.41 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 47 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.028
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 58% / put 42% (net skew 0.16), unusualness 25/100. Context: earnings in 19 days.
+0.010
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.010
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
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📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
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Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.64.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.417
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.64
→
Conviction
0.35
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.35 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-09 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26