chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU) · Industry Index 20 (rank #20) ·
price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-07-29 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Arm Holdings licenses the CPU instruction-set architecture and core designs used in most smartphones and, increasingly, data-center and AI chips.
Industry exposure 0.5 (Arm cores underpin data-center chips like NVIDIA Grace and AWS Graviton and virtually every AI SoC, though much of its royalty base is still mobile.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:earnings in 7 days
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | $260 CALL | 67 | sell-side | +69 | 3,529 | 7.3× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $260 CALL | 59 | mid-market · no side | +3 | 1,704 | 4.6× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $250 CALL | 52 | buy-side | +284 | 2,616 | 1.4× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $245 CALL | 41 | mid-market · no side | +76 | 953 | 0.5× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $260 CALL | 37 | mid-market · no side | +1 | 120 | 30.0× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $250 CALL | 37 | mid-market · no side | +3 | 88 | 3.5× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $265 CALL | 36 | buy-side | +1 | 97 | 24.3× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $235 CALL | 32 | mid-market · no side | +13 | 1,377 | 1.8× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $230 CALL | 31 | sell-side | +195 | 1,061 | 1.3× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $205 PUT | 30 | buy-side | +3 | 299 | 1.9× |
10 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 0.7× its 13-day baseline
43% calls / 57% puts (by premium)
News set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a positive tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; price momentum dissented. Directional agreement 0.52.
A clear neutral score; conviction 0.18 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
Arm's durable advantage is its proprietary CPU architecture plus the software ecosystem locked to it: as of March 31, 2026 more than 350 billion Arm-based chips had shipped cumulatively, the platform "supports a global community of more than 22 million developers" and "runs the vast majority of the world's software," which underpins its greater-than-99% share of mobile application processors held "for many years."
Rating: wide
Arm's FY2026 20-F states it "maintained market share in the mobile applications processor market of greater than 99% for many years," and describes the Arm platform as "the most pervasive architecture in the world," with "more than 350 billion Arm-based chips reported as shipped cumulatively" as of March 31, 2026 — a durable, dominant position.
Type: intangibles ip
Per the 20-F, Arm's advantage rests on its proprietary CPU architecture (ISA), which "is essentially a common language for software developers" and "sets the foundation for a large library of compatible software," reinforced by switching costs: customers "likely would incur significant costs in switching to competitors' architecture."
Leadership: clear leader
20-F: >99% share of the mobile applications processor market for many years and "the most pervasive architecture in the world"; principal contested arena is the fast-growing data-center CPU market, where Arm is still a challenger to x86.
Pricing power: strong
GAAP gross margin was ~98% in FY2026 ($4,799M gross profit on $4,920M revenue), up from 97% (FY2025) and 95% (FY2024), and royalty growth was driven by "an improved mix of products with higher royalty rates per chip, such as Armv9 technology" — evidence of per-chip pricing power. Caveat: the 20-F notes ASPs decline over a chip generation and royalty per chip generally falls as volume rises.
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU)
Arm licenses the CPU architecture and core IP that sit at the foundation of nearly all mobile SoCs and a growing share of AI/cloud data-center CPUs (CSP in-house Grace/Graviton-class designs and Arm's own AGI data-center CPU), placing it upstream of much of the AI compute stack.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.42 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score 0.16, conviction 1).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive CPU IP (IVI / ADAS) · CPU architecture / IP licensing Arm CPU IP for in-vehicle infotainment, ADAS, engine management and body/chassis control chips. | Top 3 20-F: "Today, our market share in the automotive market is highest in more technologically advanced functional areas such as IVI and ADAS" — strong position in advanced automotive compute, though the overall automotive market is more contested. | Moderate 20-F: automotive is a named growth focus area but faces competition from x86, RISC-V and customers designing their own automotive architectures; software/tooling ecosystem provides a moderate barrier. |
| Cloud / data-center compute CPU IP · CPU architecture / IP licensing Arm CPU IP used in server chips, DPUs and smart NICs, including cloud providers' in-house designed data-center CPUs. | Challenger 20-F: data center is "our fastest growing market for revenue," and "Arm-based chips have been gaining market share as CSPs have started to deploy Arm products in their own in-house designed chips used in their data centers" — i.e., Arm is gaining on the incumbent x86 architecture but is not yet the leader. | Moderate 20-F: competes against the established x86 architecture and free, open-source RISC-V; the data-center software ecosystem (e.g. Kleidi libraries) is improving but less locked-in than mobile, and several customers are building bespoke AI accelerators that may sit alongside or displace the CPU. |
| Mobile application processor CPU IP · CPU architecture / IP licensing Arm CPU cores and Armv9 architecture licensed into the application processors of virtually all smartphones. | Leader 20-F: Arm has "maintained market share in the mobile applications processor market of greater than 99% for many years, by virtue of all key mobile operating systems depending on Arm processors"; this market was ~43% of total royalty revenue in FY2026. | Deep 20-F: all key mobile operating systems depend on Arm processors and customers "would incur significant costs in switching to competitors' architecture," with a 22M+ developer software ecosystem locked to the architecture. |
These charts plot Arm Holdings's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-07-29. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, revenue grew 82% to $4.9B (FY2022→FY2026); gross margin moved 95% → 98%; net income at $904.0M in FY2026.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 0.48 (USD 0.46–USD 0.50) · 29 | USD 1.4B (USD 1.3B–USD 1.4B) · 28 | +21% |
| FY 2027 | USD 2.23 (USD 2.06–USD 2.38) · 39 | USD 6.1B (USD 5.6B–USD 6.2B) · 39 | +23% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-11-04.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 4,062,977 | $1.4B | 1,613,947 | 0.1% | 0.38% |
| BlackRock Passive / index | 2,035,975 | $721.9M | 793,291 | 0.0% | 0.19% |
| Alphabet Corporate | 1,960,784 | $695.2M | 0 | 0.7% | 0.18% |
| State Street Passive / index | 359,440 | $127.4M | 79,824 | 0.0% | 0.03% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 4,924 | $1.7M | -588,437 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
CNBC · 2026-10-13 · regulation
A federal jury in Delaware found that Arm Holdings breached a licensing agreement with Qualcomm and intentionally interfered with Qualcomm's business relationship with Meta Platforms, but awarded Qualcomm nominal damages of just $2. The verdict followed a five-day trial, the second between the companies in two years.
Reuters · 2026-10-09 · regulation
A Delaware federal jury did not reach a verdict on Friday in Qualcomm's lawsuit alleging Arm breached licensing agreements by withholding software patches and tools and by violating an agreement meant to ensure Qualcomm paid within 10% of the lowest price for Arm's processor designs. Qualcomm also alleges Arm tried to torpedo its dealings with Meta Platforms by leaking a 2024 letter to Bloomberg; Arm argued Qualcomm suffered no harm.
Arista Networks · 2026-10-07 · product
Arista Networks announced an open Ethernet rack-scale portfolio for scale-up and scale-out AI infrastructure, engineered in partnership with AMD, Arm, Broadcom, d-Matrix, Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm. Its Etherlink SU-144 architecture supports up to 144 accelerators in a single-hop network and scales to 1,024 XPUs through cross-rack topologies.
MSN · 2026-07-06 · product
Arm expanded its AI data center push with the launch of its AGI CPU aimed at agentic AI workloads.
Stocktwits · 2026-07-05 · earnings
Arm's CEO flagged supply risks that could constrain sales of its new chips in the first quarter.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-01 · partnership
Arm expanded its AGI CPU ecosystem through support on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Coherent vs. Arm Holdings: Which Tech Stock Offers More Upside Now?
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm Holdings (ARM) Faces Jury Breach Ruling As It Unveils Server Security Tie Up
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Wells Fargo, Arm Holdings And Intuit Object To Stock Tokenization Trading Platform
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Can ARM's 13% Contract Value Growth Sustain Momentum in Q2?
2026-10-14 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Why Arm Holdings Stock Was Falling Today
2026-10-14 Yahoo Finance: ARM · ARM Stock Is Up 123% This Year. Is It Too Late to Get In?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Heavy Unusual Call Option Activity in Chip Designer Arm Holdings Plc - Are Investors Still Bullish?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: ARM · What Does Arm Holdings (ARM) Winning An AI Ecosystem Award Really Signal?
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm Holdings (ARM) Is Helping Reshape the Future of Computing: Here’s Why
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm Holdings plc (ARM) is Positioned as Specialized Computing Demand Outlasts Near-Term Shortages
2026-10-11 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm Holdings Has a $4.9 Billion Business Model on Trial. Here’s What It Means for ARM Stock.
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: ARM · ARM Stock Rebounds 11.5% in a Month: Is it a Buy Right Now?
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm Holdings (ARM): Semiconductor Sector Sell-Off and Supply Execution Questions Weigh on Stock
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm Holdings (ARM) Heads To Trial Over Billions In Royalty Payments
2026-10-07 PR Newswire Energy · ARM & HAMMER™ BAKING SODA ROCKET DAY BLASTS OFF FOR YEAR THREE, INSPIRING THE NEXT GENERATION OF INNOVATORS
2026-10-04 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm Holdings Stock Closed Above Wall Street’s $289 Target. Here’s the Margin Math That Decides What Comes Next
2026-10-01 PR Newswire Tech · ARM & HAMMER™ BAKING SODA AND LEGOLAND® RESORTS BUILD THE FUN WITH LIMITED-EDITION PACK AND CHANCE TO WIN A FAMILY GETAWAY
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Munro Partners Sees Arm Holdings (ARM) as a Key Beneficiary of Agentic AI
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | earnings | Arm Holdings earnings — Company-confirmed date. confirmed | High |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Arm Holdings earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · +7.4% |
