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Duolingo (DUOL) ☆

AI applications & software · Industry Index 7 (rank #177) · $136.39 (+0.90%) · mkt cap $6.4B

ⓘ Data freshness

price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-08-06 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)

Duolingo operates the world's most popular language-learning app, with premium AI-powered tutoring features in Duolingo Max.

Signal

signal: as of 2026-10-13

Short (~2 weeks)

28%
Bearish
Conviction 28
  • Options positioning— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 63% / put 37% (net skew 0.26), unusualness 32/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 1 day.[options]
  • Price momentum— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.06, confidence 0.24 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Structural— Industry Index 6.8 (falling -8.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Medium (~3 months)

70%
Bearish
Conviction 70
  • Growth trend— Revenue 18% YoY (decelerating), net margin contracting.[filing]
  • Price momentum— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.06, confidence 0.24 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Smart money— 0 filer(s) accumulating, 1 trimming in 2026Q2 (value-weighted net -1.00).[holding]
  • Structural— Industry Index 6.8 (falling -8.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Long (~6 months)

32%
Bearish
Conviction 32
  • Growth trend— Revenue 18% YoY (decelerating), net margin contracting.[filing]
  • moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): narrow moat / clear_leader / weak pricing ⇒ wider/leading long-horizon tilt 0.13. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — duolingo — narrow moat, clear_leader, weak pricing (as of 2026-05-04)]
  • Structural— Industry Index 6.8 (falling -8.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Show Details

Relationship network

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  • Amazon — supplier
  • OpenAI — supplier

Key relationships

  • Amazon — supplier · Duolingo runs its app infrastructure on Amazon Web Services and discloses reliance on AWS. source: sec.gov
  • OpenAI — supplier · Duolingo licenses OpenAI's GPT-4 to power the Role Play and Explain My Answer features in Duolingo Max. source: openai.com

Options positioning

delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-10-29
  • Call vs put volume: 1,591 calls · 1,320 puts — tilt +9.3% toward calls
  • Vol/OI turnover: 0.15×
  • Premium ($ notional proxy): $699664 calls · $1.3M puts — tilt -31.4% toward puts
  • OTM tilt: +35.1% toward OTM calls
  • IV skew (put − call): -1.1%