MDB Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beat with 10.5% Surprise, Shares Edge Lower - Post-Earnings Drift
Google News: MongoDB · 2026-07-09 · earnings
MongoDB reported Q2 2026 EPS that beat estimates by 10.5%, though shares edged lower afterward.
AI applications & software · Industry Index 10 (rank #128) ·
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-09-01 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
MongoDB provides a NoSQL document database delivered primarily as the managed Atlas cloud service, increasingly used to power AI and vector-search applications.
Industry exposure 0.4 (A general-purpose database increasingly powering AI and vector-search workloads, but most usage remains conventional application data.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:FOMC Rate Decision in 5 days
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $390 CALL | 71 | mid-market · no side | +5 | 827 | 11.7× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $342.5 PUT | 65 | buy-side | — | 500 | 10.4× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $370 CALL | 56 | mid-market · no side | +1 | 196 | 2.6× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $375 CALL | 45 | mid-market · no side | 0 | 212 | 2.6× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $315 PUT | 43 | buy-side | 0 | 154 | 77.0× |
15 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 1.5× its 13-day baseline
59% calls / 41% puts (by premium)
Structural carried this call — it supplied almost the entire lean; the other voters nearly net out.
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.58.
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.20 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
MongoDB monetizes developer mindshare that began as open source: the 10-K notes 'we own the intellectual property of our offerings since we are the creators of the software,' which lets it run a 'proprietary software subscription business model' and control the roadmap. The durable asset is the document-model install base and Atlas's managed multi-cloud workloads, positioned for AI as 'the underlying database … capable of processing queries against rich and complex data structures.' The counterweight, in the filing's own words, is that the large cloud providers it depends on for Atlas hosting are also its best-resourced competitors.
Rating: narrow
The FY2026 10-K frames a 'rapidly evolving and highly competitive' database market where the principal rivals — 'legacy database providers and large cloud providers' — hold explicit advantages: 'longer operating histories, more established relationships … significantly greater financial, technical, marketing or other resources … broader global distribution,' and can offer competing products 'at a low cost or no cost.' A developer-mindshare and switching-cost position is defensible but not wide against that field.
Type: switching costs
A database is the system an application is built on: the 10-K states 'a database directly impacts an application's performance, scalability, flexibility and reliability,' and Atlas is 'our managed multi-cloud database-as-a-service' running the customer's live workloads — re-platforming a database is a rewrite, not a swap.
Leadership: co leader
The 10-K positions MongoDB as the leading document database by developer mindshare but names 'legacy database providers and large cloud providers' as better-resourced rivals across the broader database market — a category leader within a market it does not lead overall.
Pricing power: moderate
Owning the IP and the roadmap ('the determination of which features are included in our free or paid offerings') gives real list-price control, but the same filing flags competitors offering database products 'at a low cost or no cost basis,' which caps it.
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: AI applications & software
Layer-10 application-layer data platform — the operational database under AI and general software workloads.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.13 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score 0.18, conviction 2).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas Vector Search · AI / vector database Integrates an operational database and vector search in a unified, fully managed platform. | Challenger The 10-K names Atlas Vector Search as the AI-workload capability ('the integration of an operational database and vector search in a unified … platform') in a new, contested category; it states no position, and none is claimed. | Moderate Bundling vector search into the operational database is the differentiator, but the large cloud providers named as competitors ship their own vector offerings. |
| MongoDB Atlas (managed multi-cloud DBaaS) · Database-as-a-service Hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service with integrated search, vector search and time-series capabilities. | Leader The 10-K describes Atlas as the company's flagship managed offering running customers' live workloads in the public cloud; it states leadership by developer mindshare, not a market share, and none is asserted here beyond that basis. | Deep Live operational workloads on a managed platform — the filing calls a database's impact on an application's performance and reliability direct, so migration is a rewrite. |
| MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (self-managed) · Self-managed database software Proprietary self-managed commercial offering for enterprises, run in cloud, on-premises or hybrid. | Top 3 Positioned in the 10-K as the self-managed complement to Atlas for enterprises; the competition section names legacy database providers as the field, with no share stated for either side. | Moderate Deployment flexibility (cloud/on-prem/hybrid) is a differentiator the legacy providers also offer, per the filing's own competitive-factor list. |
These charts plot MongoDB's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-09-01. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, revenue grew 3675% to $2.5B (FY2016→FY2026); gross margin moved 68% → 72%; net income at a loss of $71.2M in FY2026.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 1.61 (USD 1.54–USD 1.78) · 36 | USD 761812730.00 (USD 752800000.00–USD 785410480.00) · 34 | +21% |
| FY 2027 | USD 6.54 (USD 6.12–USD 7.10) · 38 | USD 3.0B (USD 3.0B–USD 3.1B) · 36 | +23% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-12-01.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 6,342,387 | $2.1B | 616,960 | 0.0% | 7.87% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 3,660,780 | $1.2B | 1,467,897 | 0.1% | 4.54% |
| State Street Passive / index | 1,934,054 | $649.6M | 89,936 | 0.0% | 2.40% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 36,467 | $12.2M | -13,027 | 0.1% | 0.05% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
Google News: MongoDB · 2026-07-09 · earnings
MongoDB reported Q2 2026 EPS that beat estimates by 10.5%, though shares edged lower afterward.
2026-10-31 PR Newswire Tech · MongoDB Investigation Continued: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Continues to Investigate the Officers and Directors of MongoDB, Inc. - MDB
2026-10-24 Yahoo Finance: MDB · MongoDB (MDB) Stock May Be Fully Priced Despite Fiduciary Duty Probe
2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance: MDB · MongoDB (MDB) Advances While Market Declines: Some Information for Investors
2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance: MDB · MongoDB (MDB) Could Be 20% Undervalued On Its Agentic AI Foundation Move
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: MDB · Can MongoDB's Subscription Model Drive Sustainable Long-Term Growth?
2026-10-15 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - MongoDB, Inc. (0001441816) (Filer)
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: META · MongoDB lets apps pay only for what they use
2026-10-14 Yahoo Finance: MDB · MongoDB Falls 11% YTD: Here's Why You Should Buy the Stock Now
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: MDB · Why MongoDB (MDB) Stock Is Trading Up Today
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: MDB · MongoDB wins Bank of America backing on AI growth prospects
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: MDB · MongoDB gains as BofA highlights long-term AI strategy potential
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: MDB · Is MongoDB (MDB) Fully Priced After Raised Growth Targets?
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: MDB · MongoDB (MDB) Unveils New AI Tools While Investors Ask If The Stock Is A Bargain
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-01 | earnings | MongoDB earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. estimated | Medium |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | MongoDB earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · -13.5% |
| 2026-05-28 | MongoDB earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · +3.0% |