AI applications & software · Industry Index 18 (rank #22) · $184.11 (-6.30%) · mkt cap $442.4B
ⓘ Data freshness
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-08-04 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Palantir builds data-integration and AI decision-making platforms (Gotham, Foundry, and the AI Platform/AIP) for government and commercial customers.
Industry exposure 0.8 (The AI Platform (AIP) is now Palantir's core growth engine and central to nearly all new deployments, though legacy data-integration work remains.)
Signal
signal: as of 2026-10-13
Short (~2 weeks)
29%
Bullish
Conviction 29
▲News— Recent sentiment 0.40 vs 120d baseline 0.33 across 1 story.[news]
▲Options positioning— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 70% / put 30% (net skew 0.40), unusualness 34/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 1 day.[options]
▲Price momentum— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.77, confidence 0.83 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
▼Structural— Industry Index 17.1 (falling -6.0 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally
Medium (~3 months)
59%
Bullish
Conviction 59
▲Growth trend— Revenue 93% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
▲Price momentum— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.77, confidence 0.83 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
▲Smart money— 2 filer(s) accumulating, 0 trimming in 2026Q2 (value-weighted net 0.99).[holding][holding][holding]
▼Structural— Industry Index 17.1 (falling -6.0 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally
Long (~6 months)
17%
Low-confidence · Neutral
Conviction 17
▲Growth trend— Revenue 93% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
Anthropic — partner · Anthropic, Palantir, and AWS partnered to make Claude models available within Palantir's AIP for U.S. defense and intelligence customers. source: investors.palantir.com
C3.ai — competitor · C3.ai and Palantir compete as enterprise-AI software platforms, including for U.S. government and defense contracts. source: fool.com
NVIDIA — partner · NVIDIA and Palantir partnered to build an integrated operational-AI stack, embedding NVIDIA CUDA-X libraries, Nemotron models, and GPU computing into Palantir's Ontology and AIP. source: nvidianews.nvidia.com
Options positioning
delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-10-30
Call vs put volume: 237,872 calls · 214,509 puts — tilt +5.2% toward calls
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
no vote
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
no vote
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
no vote
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.47.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
+0.333
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.47
→
Conviction
0.29
A clear bullish score; conviction 0.29 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-13 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26
Signal history
Moat
moat: latest change 2026-02-17
Customers who deploy Foundry model their operations in the Ontology and build workflows on top of it, so displacement means rebuilding that layer rather than swapping a vendor — which is why the 10-K frames its main competitor as the customer's own internal build effort. Ten-year average tenure among the top three customers is the filing's own evidence that those deployments persist.
The FY2025 10-K competition section concedes that some competitors have 'greater name recognition, longer operating histories, and larger customer bases', 'larger and more mature intellectual property portfolios', and 'substantially greater financial, technical, and other resources' — and that Palantir is 'fundamentally competing with the internal software development efforts of our potential customers'. A real moat exists but the filing's own disclosure caps it below wide.
The 10-K reports that 'our top three customers by revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, have been with us for an average of ten years' and that a significant portion of revenue comes from existing customers expanding their relationships. The filing explicitly disclaims patent dependence — 'we are not dependent on any particular patent or application' — so the durable source is embedded deployment, not IP.
The 10-K claims only that 'we believe we generally compete favorably with our competitors', while conceding rivals' greater scale, recognition and resources. The filing does not assert market leadership, so a leader band is not groundable from it.
FY2025 gross profit of $3.7 billion on a gross margin of 82% (84% excluding stock-based compensation), up from 80% (83% ex-SBC) in FY2024 — a sustained and rising 80%+ gross margin.
Application-layer software sitting above the cloud and model providers; AIP connects to third-party LLMs rather than supplying them.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
Signal contribution editorial prior
The moat prior voted +0.11 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score 0.32, conviction 17).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Product lineup
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
Product
Market share
Technical barrier
Palantir Apollo · Continuous delivery platform
Continuous delivery platform that orchestrates daily upgrades of services and assets and manages the underlying infrastructure hosting the other platforms.
Unknown
The 10-K discloses no market share for Apollo, which it describes as infrastructure supporting the other platforms rather than a separately positioned product.
Moderate
Described in the filing as the delivery layer that manages the infrastructure hosting the other platforms — valuable as internal plumbing, but the filing makes no claim of standalone differentiation.
Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) · Generative AI platform
Provides secure connectivity to third-party large language models, a toolchain for building AI agents and automations, AI-enabled end-user applications, and an evaluations framework for governing AI workflows in production.
Unknown
The 10-K discloses no market share for AIP.
Moderate
The filing describes AIP as providing 'secure connectivity to third-party-provided large language models', so the model layer itself is not owned; the defensible parts are the governance and evaluations framework and AIP's coupling to Foundry's Ontology.
Palantir Foundry · Data operations platform
Foundational data operations platform providing data management, logic authoring, systemic mapping through the Palantir Ontology, analytics, and workflow development.
Unknown
The 10-K discloses no product-level market share for Foundry, and no share figure is inferable from the filing.
Deep
Foundry carries the Ontology, the systemic mapping layer customer workflows are authored against; the filing's ten-year average tenure among top-three customers indicates these deployments are not readily displaced.
Palantir Gotham · Defense and intelligence platform
Integrates with the other platforms and Palantir's broader defense offerings to power missions across allied defense and intelligence operations.
Unknown
The 10-K discloses no share figure for Gotham within defense or intelligence software.
Deep
The filing states Gotham has surfaced insights for global defense agencies and the intelligence community 'for over a decade', indicating accredited, mission-integrated deployments that are slow to replace.
Palantir owns the customer relationship and the workflow, holds a partial position on evaluations, and deliberately owns neither the data nor the models. It sells direct to 954 customers and positions its platforms as the central operating system for their daily work, while acting as a data processor over corpora walled off per engagement and routing to third-party or open-source LLMs. The edge is the Ontology, permissioning and deployment layer between those customer-owned inputs and the operational decisions.
Palantir sells through a "Direct Sales Force": the FY2025 10-K says it has "invested and may continue to invest in an account-based sales force to identify and capture new customers" and that "We embed directly with customers across numerous industries", with AIP bootcamps that "deliver real workflows on actual customer data in days". It reported 954 customers as of December 31, 2025, a customer being "an organization from which we have recognized revenue during the trailing twelve-month period". Two caveats sit against full first-party control: Japan and Korea joint ventures that "limit our ability to independently sell our platforms", and "channel sales relationships and strategic alliances with various global system integrators" whose partners may take on "some portion of sales, marketing, implementation services". source: sec.gov
Palantir disclaims ownership of customer data: "With regards to customer data, we act as a data processor, not a data controller", "We do not collect, store, or sell personal data", and "We don't use personal data to train proprietary AI or machine learning models to share or resell to other customers." That post dates from 11 November 2020, but the current AIP security documentation says the same today: Palantir "secures strict technical and contractual guarantees from third-party-hosted model service providers to ensure that no customer data submitted in prompts or contained in completions is used for model training". The FY2025 10-K is consistent — the platforms "integrate our customers' data" and deploy "in customer networks, on-premises at customer sites, on edge devices". Any retraining stays in the customer's deployment. source: blog.palantir.com
Palantir ships a real first-party evaluation harness, named in the 10-K as "a broad evaluations framework for governing AI workflows in production", but the criteria are authored per customer. Users "Set up tests manually to create an empty evaluation suite" in a test editor "where you can configure inputs for each test case", and the shipped evaluator is generic: teams "use the built-in Exact string match evaluator", while "depending on the nature of your function, you may need to use other evaluators or write custom ones." AIP can bootstrap a starting point — "select Generate evals, if your Logic function is eligible, to have AIP bootstrap useful tests and evaluators for you" — but that is scoped to one customer's function rather than a published domain standard. source: palantir.com
The Q2 FY2026 10-Q, for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2026, states that "The Company builds and deploys software platforms that serve as the central operating systems for its customers", and the FY2025 10-K says "our platforms have become central operating systems for entire industries and sectors". The product description backs this at the level of daily work: "data engineers can integrate new data sources, analysts can clean and transform data, data scientists can write models, business users can conduct daily workflows, and senior leaders can make critical decisions". Gotham "facilitates the hand-off between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world mission plans." "Central operating system" is the filing's own characterisation, so the band rests on that task list rather than the phrase. source: sec.gov
AIP routes to models Palantir did not train: it "supports a wide range of LLMs (large language models) and text embedding models from leading providers, including xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Google", covering Grok, GPT, Claude and Gemini alongside an "Open source (Palantir-hosted)" tier including Llama 3.1/3.3, Mixtral 8x7B, Whisper Large V3 and Document Information Extraction. The 10-K describes AIP as providing "secure connectivity to third-party-provided large language models (“LLMs”), a development toolchain for building AI-powered agents and automations", with no reference to fine-tuning or proprietary training data. Customers can also connect "their own LLMs or accounts". The value sits in the Ontology, permissioning and deployment layer rather than in weights. source: palantir.com
Palantir's quarter ended June 30, 2026 shows 1,049 trailing-twelve-month customers, up from 849 a year earlier, on quarterly revenue of $1.94 billion, a 93% increase, with US commercial revenue of $764 million up 149%. The depth sits in expansion rather than logo count: average trailing-twelve-month revenue across the top twenty customers reached $124 million, up 67%, and $407 million of the $495 million commercial revenue increase came from customers already on the books at December 31, 2025. AIP, deployed since 2023, adds an agent and automation toolchain and an evaluations framework for governing AI workflows in production atop the Foundry Ontology. The installed base stays narrow at roughly a thousand customers, and remaining performance obligations stood at $4.9 billion. source: sec.gov
A paired axis, not a sixth band: it is never counted in the pattern above and the two are never averaged into one score.
revenue: Growth is overwhelmingly expansion inside the installed base, not new-logo: of the $437M Q2 government revenue increase, $428M came from customers already existing as of Dec 31, 2025, and $407M of the $495M commercial increase likewise; no customer exceeded 10% of total revenue ($428M of $437M gov; $407M of $495M commercial from existing customers) 2026-06-30source: sec.gov
revenue: Q2 FY2026 total revenue of $1.935B, up 93% YoY from $1.004B; government $990M (+79%) and commercial $945M (+110%), with US commercial revenue $764M vs $306M a year earlier (+149%) ($1.935B, +93% YoY) 2026-06-30source: sec.gov
customer: 954 customers as of December 31, 2025, up from 711 a year earlier (+34%); a customer is defined as an organization from which revenue was recognized in the trailing twelve months, with separately contracting government sub-agencies counted individually (954 customers (from 711)) 2025-12-31source: sec.gov
Scouted against the condition: a company that simultaneously owns the customer relationship, the data, the evals, the workflow, and a domain-specific model. Weightless — this profile never affects a signal, and it is not a forecast of returns.
What you're looking at
These charts plot Palantir Technologies's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-08-04. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, revenue grew 652% to $4.5B (FY2018→FY2025); gross margin moved 72% → 82%; net income at $1.6B in FY2025.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
Period
EPS (est.)
Revenue (est.)
YoY
Q/E Sep 2026
USD 0.41 (USD 0.38–USD 0.48) · 24
USD 2.2B (USD 2.2B–USD 2.3B) · 24
+85%
FY 2026
USD 1.62 (USD 1.51–USD 1.75) · 29
USD 8.2B (USD 8.2B–USD 8.6B) · 29
+84%
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-11-02.
Our model leans Bullish on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Income statement
Cash flow & liquidity
Balance sheet
Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.
Passive index filers are not gurus. Their 13F changes are index flows, and they are excluded from TradingPilot’s smart-money signal.
Quant caveat. A quant filer’s 13F (e.g. Renaissance) is a long-only quarter-end snapshot and does NOT reflect its actual high-turnover, short-horizon strategy.
Guru pages and holdings never feed a signal (weightless).
Ondas and Palantir Technologies announced the formation of Regna AI, a standalone private company powered by Palantir and bootstrapped by Ondas, to help governments and enterprises develop and deploy mission-specialized fine-tuned AI models within their own sovereign environments. Ondas will be Regna AI's first customer, and Palantir will provide model-training infrastructure and support delivery.
