AI applications & software · Industry Index 14 (rank #56) ·
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2018-02-28 Reports annually (20-F XBRL; no quarterly filings)
SAP is the world's largest enterprise resource planning (ERP) software vendor, adding generative AI across its portfolio through the Joule copilot and Business AI.
Industry exposure 0.3 (Joule and Business AI add AI across the portfolio but represent a small slice of a massive ERP franchise.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:FOMC Rate Decision in 5 days
20 small flags (under $100000 premium) — none large enough to highlight.
latest session: 1.1× its 13-day baseline
40% calls / 60% puts (by premium)
News set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a positive tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.31.
A clear neutral score; conviction 0.00 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
SAP monetizes the stickiest software estate in enterprise computing twice over: a declining on-premise support stream and a growing cloud one, with the 20-F's 'flywheel' — Business AI enhancing Cloud ERP, which feeds Business Data Cloud, which fuels the AI — as the argument that the transition compounds rather than cannibalizes. The caveat is regulatory, in the filing's own words: the European Commission opened formal proceedings over on-premise maintenance and support policies, with suggested remedies market-tested in 2025 and 'pending final EC approval in 2026' — the moat's support-pricing half is under review.
Rating: wide
The 20-F describes a migration market made of SAP's own customers: RISE with SAP 'is targeted at our installed base customers and helps them on their journey from legacy ERP systems to SAP Business Suite' — an installed base so entrenched that moving WITHIN the vendor is a multi-year journey, with the Q2 2026 statement showing €22.9 billion of contractually committed cloud backlog, up 27%.
Type: switching costs
ERP is the system of record for a company's core processes; the 20-F's own strategy language — SAP Business Suite as 'the destination for all our customers,' with AI-enabled migration tools easing the journey off SAP's own legacy systems — is a switching-cost moat described from the inside.
Leadership: clear leader
Grounded in scale and position rather than an asserted share: the 20-F describes a market segment consisting of SAP's own legacy estates (RISE), and the Q2 statement shows Cloud ERP Suite revenue of €5.5 billion in a single quarter, up 25% — no competitor filing this site tracks describes an installed-base market of its own.
Pricing power: moderate
Q2 2026: total revenue up 9% with non-IFRS operating profit up 7% — profit growing slightly behind revenue, and the 2026 profit outlook 'updated to reflect dilutive impact from Dremio and Prior Labs acquisitions' rather than raised.
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: AI applications & software
Layer-10 application incumbent embedding AI (Joule, Business AI) into the enterprise system of record.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.38 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score -0.31, conviction 9).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| Business AI (Joule, Joule Agents, Business Data Cloud) · Enterprise AI layer | Unknown The 20-F describes the architecture — Joule as the AI experience layer, Joule Agents executing workflows, Business Data Cloud as the data platform — but states no market position for it, and none is asserted. | Moderate The barrier is the suite it is embedded in: AI 'grounded in their most critical business processes and data,' per the CEO's Q2 statement. |
| Cloud ERP Suite (S/4HANA Cloud, BTP, LoB solutions) · Cloud ERP | Leader The filings state scale, not share — €5.5 billion of Cloud ERP Suite revenue in Q2 2026, up 25% — and the 20-F positions Business Suite as the destination for the world's existing SAP estates; the band is editorial judgment on that cited basis. | Deep System-of-record entrenchment: RISE migrations move customers from SAP legacy to SAP cloud per the 20-F. |
| On-premise software support · Legacy support estate | Unknown Q2 software support revenue of €2.4 billion, down 8% as the base migrates; the statement gives scale and direction, not share. | Deep Running estates that predate the cloud transition — sticky enough that the European Commission opened formal proceedings over the maintenance and support policies, with remedies pending 2026 approval per the 20-F. |
These charts plot SAP's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2018-02-28. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at $4.8B in FY2017.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Dec 2026 | EUR 2.18 (EUR 2.14–EUR 2.27) · 5 | EUR 10.8B (EUR 10.6B–EUR 11.0B) · 13 | +11% |
| FY 2026 | EUR 8.06 (EUR 7.89–EUR 8.45) · 10 | EUR 40.4B (EUR 40.1B–EUR 40.9B) · 26 | +10% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Annual XBRL only (20-F filer) — no quarterly series.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 1,991,923 | $307.0M | -4,589,157 | 0.0% | 0.17% |
| BlackRock Passive / index | 1,249,520 | $192.6M | 96,424 | 0.0% | 0.11% |
| State Street Passive / index | 12,178 | $1.9M | 0 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
SAP News Center · 2026-10-06 · partnership
SAP agreed to acquire TechWolf, an AI work-intelligence provider based in Ghent, Belgium, which is expected to become part of the SAP SuccessFactors portfolio. Terms were not disclosed and the deal is expected to close in Q4 2026.
PR Newswire · 2026-10-06 · product
At SAP Connect in Las Vegas, SAP said Joule Work, a new AI user interface, is beginning its customer rollout and is already live with 110,000 SAP employees, with the company seeing 20% productivity gains across finance, HR and procurement. SAP also said it is entering the payments market with SAP Pay, powered by its Tereina unit and embedded in SAP Cloud ERP, and announced a partnership with Moody's to embed supplier risk monitoring data into SAP Ariba.
SAP · 2026-09-28 · partnership
SAP described ongoing engineering contributions to NVIDIA OpenShell and its planned integration with SAP Business AI Platform and Joule Studio runtime. The work connects agent isolation with enterprise authorization and audit controls.
Google News: SAP · 2026-07-15 · partnership
SAP and Giotto.ai launched pilot projects aimed at making SAP's Joule AI agents smarter.
Google News: SAP · 2026-07-15 · regulation
An EU competition decision reportedly gives SAP's customers more leverage in contract negotiations.
SAP News Center · 2026-06-30 · partnership
Microsoft entered a strategic multi-year agreement with Nokia and SAP to advance cloud- and AI-driven business transformation.
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Tech · Definity and dab Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand SAP Data Integration Solutions across LATAM
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: SAP · Definity and dab Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand SAP Data Integration Solutions across LATAM
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Tech · Infosys accompagne Syngenta dans sa transformation mondiale vers SAP S/4HANA
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Tech · Infosys schließt die weltweite SAP-S/4HANA-Umstellung für den Pflanzenschutzbereich von Syngenta erfolgreich ab
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Tech · Infosys Successfully Delivers Syngenta's Global SAP S/4HANA Transformation for Crop Protection Business
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Tech · Infosys Successfully Delivers Syngenta's Global SAP S/4HANA Transformation for Crop Protection Business
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: SAP · Infosys Successfully Delivers Syngenta's Global SAP S/4HANA Transformation for Crop Protection Business
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: SAP · SAP Empowers AI Developers to Build What Matters and Turn Intent into Autonomous Execution
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: SAP · SAP Stock And 2 GRC Software Names Facing The AI Governance Test
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: SAP · Strong Q2 Results and Cloud Momentum Reinforce SAP SE’s (SAP) Investment Thesis
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: SAP · Elavon to Deliver Seamless Embedded Payments Across SAP Applications
2026-10-26 PR Newswire Aerospace/Defense · Parloa's Agent Management Platform now sold as an SAP Solution Extension for agentic customer interactions
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: SAP · Parloa's Agent Management Platform now sold as an SAP Solution Extension for agentic customer interactions
2026-10-26 PR Newswire Aerospace/Defense · Docusign Intelligent Agreement Management to Be Sold as SAP Solution Extensions
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: SAP · Docusign Intelligent Agreement Management to Be Sold as SAP Solution Extensions
2026-10-26 PR Newswire Tech · New Offering Developed by Redwood Software to Be Sold as an SAP Solution Extension
2026-10-26 PR Newswire Tech · Nouvelle offre mise au point par Redwood Software, commercialisée en tant qu'extension de solution SAP
2026-10-26 PR Newswire Tech · Neues Angebot von Redwood Software wird als SAP-Lösungserweiterung vertrieben.
2026-10-26 PR Newswire Aerospace/Defense · Nueva oferta desarrollada por Redwood Software que se comercializará como una SAP Solution Extension
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: SAP · New Offering Developed by Redwood Software to Be Sold as an SAP Solution Extension
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | SAP earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · +3.4% |
| 2026-07-23 | SAP earnings confirmed | High | EPS miss · +9.3% |
