AI applications & software · Industry Index 13 (rank #78) ·
price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-07-23 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
ServiceNow provides a cloud workflow-automation platform for IT, HR, and customer service, augmented with the Now Assist generative-AI assistant.
Industry exposure 0.4 (The Now Assist generative-AI suite is a growing upsell layered on a large workflow-automation business.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:earnings today
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | $139 PUT | 79 | mid-market · no side | +68 | 3,588 | 11.4× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $165 CALL | 65 | buy-side | +515 | 4,821 | 2.6× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $131 PUT | 64 | sell-side | +30 | 1,426 | 5.5× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $138 PUT | 59 | mid-market · no side | +32 | 1,504 | 2.8× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $136 PUT | 59 | mid-market · no side | +66 | 1,705 | 2.6× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $140 PUT | 56 | mid-market · no side | +7,189 | 6,832 | 0.8× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $145 PUT | 56 | sell-side | +3,384 | 3,683 | 0.8× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $155 CALL | 54 | buy-side | +358 | 2,007 | 1.2× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $132 PUT | 53 | mid-market · no side | +51 | 1,149 | 2.0× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $130 PUT | 51 | sell-side | +245 | 3,211 | 1.6× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $175 CALL | 50 | mid-market · no side | +214 | 3,167 | 1.3× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $133 PUT | 50 | mid-market · no side | +33 | 667 | 1.7× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $135 PUT | 48 | sell-side | +4,337 | 3,630 | 0.7× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $147 PUT | 48 | buy-side | +84 | 449 | 1.4× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $157.5 CALL | 48 | buy-side | +164 | 1,025 | 0.9× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $144 PUT | 48 | sell-side | +77 | 490 | 1.2× |
4 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 5.6× its 13-day baseline
44% calls / 56% puts (by premium)
News set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a positive tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.28.
A mildly-positive score, but weak agreement — so the engine returns a no-conviction Neutral rather than overclaim. This is the system refusing to force a call it doesn’t have.
ServiceNow sells a workflow platform that sits on top of, rather than replaces, an enterprise's existing systems. Each customer gets a dedicated application layer and database, ITOM maintains a single record of all IT configurable items, and products integrate with existing workflows rather than replace them; once that record and its integrations span IT, HR and customer service, displacement becomes a re-platforming exercise. The evidence is in large commitments: $5 million-plus ACV customers rose from 420 to 502 to 603, and RPO reached $28.2 billion, up 27%, against $13,278 million of FY2025 revenue. The moat is bounded by a market the company itself calls fragmented with low barriers to entry, by larger rivals that can bundle or cut price, and by falling subscription gross margin, 82% to 80%.
Rating: narrow
The FY2025 10-K shows RPO of $28.2 billion, up 27%; customers above $5 million of ACV at 603, 502 and 420 as of December 31 2025, 2024 and 2023; revenue of $13,278 million, up 21%; and a 98% renewal rate for three years. That rate cannot prove durability: the filing computes it excluding "changes in price or users," says it "does not reflect increased or decreased purchases," and warns "period-to-period comparison of renewal rates may not be meaningful." The company also calls its market "characterized by fragmentation, low barriers to entry." Real switching costs plus compounding large accounts support narrow; wide would need durability proof this filing lacks.
Type: switching costs
The binding force is architecture and configuration. The filing describes "a multi-instance architecture that provides each customer with a dedicated application layer and database," an ITOM product that "maintains a single record of all IT configurable items," and products built to "integrate with existing workflows rather than replace them." Once that record and its integrations are configured, replacement becomes a re-platforming program — our inference, as the filing quantifies no switching cost. Not IP: it holds "over 2,000 issued U.S. and foreign patents" but is not "materially dependent on any single patent." Not network effects.
Leadership: clear leader
The call is scoped to IT service management. Apps Run The World's 2024 ITSM ranking (page dated 23 July 2025) places ServiceNow first at 44.4% share, ahead of Atlassian, BMC, GoTo and Ivanti, in an $11.4 billion market where the top ten hold 83.3%. Scale corroborates: about 8,700 customers, 29,187 employees, $13,278 million of revenue, $28.2 billion of RPO. References to "two decades partnering with enterprise customers" and process knowledge "that cannot be readily replicated" are the filing's own characterisation. Outside ITSM it is weaker: one of six Leaders in the 2025 Gartner LCAP quadrant, and tenth of ten in CRM behind Salesforce at 26.1%.
Pricing power: moderate
The filing discloses no average selling price, no net revenue retention and no pricing data, and the renewal rate is no proxy — it "does not reflect increased or decreased purchases" and excludes "changes in price or users." Revenue up 21%, the $5 million-plus cohort up about 20% annually and RPO up 27% are all consistent with expansion at flat pricing. Margins cut the other way: subscription gross profit fell to 80% from 82% with no stated cause, and professional services gross loss widened to 5% from 2%. One real lever is that "certain AI and data solutions include a consumption-based pricing component."
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: AI applications & software
Enterprise workflow platform layered on top of customers' existing systems of record. It consumes public cloud capacity (named relationships with AWS, Google, Microsoft and NVIDIA) plus its own data centers, and reaches customers through a direct sales force, global system integrators (Accenture, Deloitte, EY, Infosys, KPMG) and resale partners. Microsoft is named as both partner and competitor.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.20 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score -0.08, conviction 0).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| App Engine (Creator and Other) · Enterprise low-code application platform (LCAP) Per the FY2025 10-K, App Engine "enables organizations to create enterprise-class workflows using low-code and no-code development tools, supported by AI" and "does not require formal coding experience." It sits in the filing's "Creator and Other" product group. | Unknown No share source is available. The cited Pretius page summarises the 2025 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Enterprise LCAP and contains no market-share data; a Magic Quadrant position measures completeness of vision and ability to execute, not share, so it cannot support a share band. The same page places ServiceNow among six Leaders, with Mendix, OutSystems, Microsoft PowerApps, Appian and Salesforce. | Moderate The cited page describes App Engine as "a solid option for companies that already use the company's SaaS tools — so, usually big corporations," meaning the barrier is platform pull-through from an existing ServiceNow footprint rather than anything intrinsic to the low-code tool. The same page names distribution weakness as the main downside ("many customers aren't aware that ServiceNow can be used for projects not related to Business Process Automation"), and the category has five other Leaders including Microsoft and Salesforce. Pretius is a low-code consultancy and discloses on that page that it is an official Mendix partner, so it is commercially interested in a competing platform. |
| Customer Service Management (CSM) · Customer service management within the broader CRM market Per the FY2025 10-K, CSM "provides customer self-service support across channels, centralizes customer interactions, and directs requests to the appropriate customer representative, all within a unified workspace," automating cross-functional processes to improve resolution times. | Niche Apps Run The World's 2024 CRM ranking places ServiceNow tenth of the top ten, behind Salesforce (26.1%), Adobe, HubSpot, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, Zendesk, Cox Automotive and Genesys, in an $80 billion market (+10.5% year over year); ServiceNow's own share figure is paywalled, though the page notes it posted the highest growth in the top ten at 34.0%. Two limits apply: the ranking covers the broad CRM market rather than customer service management specifically, so it understates position in the narrower category ServiceNow sells into, and the share figure itself is not published. Tenth place with an undisclosed share behind a 26.1% leader supports niche and rules out any higher band. | Moderate The platform and configuration mechanics are the same as the rest of the portfolio, but the category has far larger, better-established incumbents — Salesforce, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP and Zendesk all rank above it, and the first four are named as competitors in the 10-K's competition section. The switching-cost argument is weaker here because CSM is more often the second or third workload landed on an existing footprint than the anchor. |
| HR Service Delivery (HRSD) · HR service delivery / employee workflow Per the FY2025 10-K, HRSD products "help provide employees and HR teams with quick answers, targeted guidance and streamlined actions on our unified Platform," automating routine HR tasks across onboarding, leave management, transfers, offboarding, service requests and career development. | Unknown No share source is available. The 10-K discloses no share or product-level revenue for HRSD and no independent HR service delivery ranking was located, so the band is left unknown rather than inferred. The competitive context the filing does supply is that Workday and SAP, both named competitors, are established in adjacent HR software. | Moderate The 10-K's worked example describes a customer deploying HRSD together with Workplace Service Delivery and Now Assist on the existing platform, so the barrier is again pull-through from an installed ServiceNow footprint and integration with surrounding enterprise systems rather than a standalone HR moat. HRSD competes against dedicated HCM suites that own the employee system of record. |
| IT Operations Management (ITOM) · IT operations management / infrastructure discovery Per the FY2025 10-K, ITOM "identifies, monitors and manages a customer's physical and cloud-based IT infrastructure" and "maintains a single record of all IT configurable items, providing organizations better control over on-premises or cloud-based infrastructures while orchestrating key processes and tasks." | Unknown No share source is available. The 10-K contains no market-share data of any kind and no ITOM-specific revenue disclosure, since ServiceNow reports a single reportable segment and splits revenue only into subscription and professional services. No independent ITOM-specific ranking was located, so the band is left unknown rather than inferred from ITSM adjacency. | Deep The single record of all IT configurable items is the deepest configuration asset in the portfolio: it is populated per customer against that customer's actual infrastructure and, per the filing, is what other products such as ITSM integrate against. The quotations are the filing's; the durability inference drawn from them is ours and is unquantified in the document. |
| IT Service Management (ITSM) · IT service management software Per the FY2025 10-K, ITSM "provides predictive intelligence, incident management and response, routine task and request automation, performance analytics and process optimization," with real-time tracking and validation enabling controlled IT service deployment. | Leader Apps Run The World's 2024 ITSM vendor ranking (page dated 23 July 2025) lists ServiceNow first at 44.4% share, ahead of Atlassian, BMC Software, GoTo, Ivanti, Microsoft, Broadcom, Kaseya+Datto, Freshworks and ManageEngine, in an $11.4 billion market (+14.8% year over year) where the top ten hold 83.3% combined. This is a vendor-research firm's estimate rather than an audited figure, and the underlying detail sits behind a paid subscription; only the headline rank and share are published free. | Deep ITSM is where the configuration burden concentrates. The 10-K describes a "multi-instance architecture that provides each customer with a dedicated application layer and database," the companion ITOM product "maintains a single record of all IT configurable items," and solutions designed to "integrate with existing workflows rather than replace them." The inference that displacement becomes a re-platforming program is ours; the filing quantifies no switching cost. It is bounded by the company's own statement that it operates in a market "characterized by fragmentation, low barriers to entry." |
3 owns · 2 partial of 5 — a pattern, not a score
ServiceNow owns the customer relationship, the workflow execution layer and the evaluation standard for agents on its platform, and the economics reflect it: $13.28B FY2025 revenue at 97% subscription, $28.2B RPO up 27%, and 603 customers above $5M ACV against a roughly flat ~8,700 logo base. The softer dimensions are data, where a multi-instance architecture keeps the operating corpus per-tenant by design, and models, where in-house LLMs stay available but lose the default inference path to third-party providers from July 2026.
| Customer relationship | owns | ServiceNow sells directly: "We sell our products and services to enterprises across a wide variety of industries through subscription agreements facilitated by our global direct sales organization," and "As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately 8,700 customers across a wide variety of industries." The relationship is quantified, not asserted — "Revenues from our direct sales organization represented 78% of our total revenues for each of the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024." The remaining ~22% is indirect: "We also sell through managed service providers and resale partners," plus integrator ties with "Accenture, Cognizant, Deloitte, EY, Infosys and KPMG," and a risk factor noting "we and our customers rely on our partners to provide professional services, including custom implementations." source: sec.gov |
|---|---|---|
| Proprietary data | partial | The operating corpus is per-tenant customer data that ServiceNow deliberately does not centralize: "We operate a multi-instance architecture that provides each customer with a dedicated application layer and database," and Workflow Data Fabric works by "connecting to real-time external data without copying or moving the data from its source." What ServiceNow does own is structure rather than corpus — the CMDB, workflow schema and process taxonomy — plus first-party telemetry from the "Now on Now" program, which the filing describes as using "our own products to collect real-time feedback on new and existing features," a product-feedback loop rather than a training corpus. The filing discloses no cross-customer aggregated training set. On that evidence this sits at the generous end of partial. source: sec.gov |
| Evals | owns | WorkArena is a peer-reviewed artifact, not a product name: "a remote-hosted benchmark of 33 tasks based on the widely-used ServiceNow platform" measuring agents on "the typical daily work of knowledge workers utilizing enterprise software systems," by 12 ServiceNow Research staff, shipped with BrowserGym as a "unified testing ground for MiniWob, WebArena, WorkArena" (arXiv 2403.07718; ICML 2024, PMLR v235). ServiceNow also gates production models: "all integrated models are regularly evaluated on Platform-representative data," "models vetted for reliability and performance," and "ServiceNow product teams test and validate OOTB skills against the assigned third-party provider before any default changes." The scope limit is real: this defines good on and for the ServiceNow platform, not an industry-wide support standard. source: servicenow.github.io |
| Workflow | owns | The 10-K frames the platform as the execution layer AI models lack: they "cannot independently execute transactions, route approvals, update systems of record, or support compliance with business rules and regulatory requirements. Our platform addresses this fundamental gap by providing the underlying infrastructure that connects AI-generated insights to the operational systems and processes where work actually gets done," and "AI agents developed using our solutions follow a human-in-the-loop governance model." Subscription revenues were $12,883M of $13,278M total — 97% of revenue, growing 21%; the auditor cites "subscription revenues of $12.9 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025." The moat rests on "expertise in the operational processes specific to different industries, functional areas and user roles." source: sec.gov |
| Domain-specific model | partial | ServiceNow offers its own models but is moving them off the default inference path: "Beginning July 9, 2026, ServiceNow will begin rolling out third-party model providers as the default for out-of-the-box (OOTB) Now Assist skills and AI agents," and "If you've set the Now LLM Service as your instance level model provider, we recommend starting the process of getting at least one third-party model provider approved." Any skill "still running OOTB default of Now LLM Service will switch to the new third-party defaults when you update," against a table of "deprecation targets, and retirement targets." In-house models remain selectable — "organizations can choose to leverage ServiceNow's language models or integrate third-party or proprietary models" — but third-party providers are becoming the defaults. source: servicenow.com |
ServiceNow's AI business crossed $1 billion in annual contract value in the second quarter of 2026, and the company reported that agentic deployments of ServiceNow AI rose ninefold over the preceding nine months. The footprint is broad rather than confined to lighthouse accounts: nearly all 50 U.S. states run the ServiceNow AI Platform, with state agencies citing outcomes such as a 66% service desk cost reduction, and the quarter closed with 658 customers above $5 million in annual contract value. Set against quarterly subscription revenues of $3,877 million, that $1 billion AI base remains a modest slice of the installed estate; management's Financial Analyst Day target of 30% of ACV from AI by 2030 measures how much of its own customer base it treats as unconverted. source: sec.gov
A paired axis, not a sixth band: it is never counted in the pattern above and the two are never averaged into one score.
Scouted against the condition: a company that simultaneously owns the customer relationship, the data, the evals, the workflow, and a domain-specific model. Weightless — this profile never affects a signal, and it is not a forecast of returns.
These charts plot ServiceNow's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-07-23. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at $1.7B in FY2025.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 1.02 (USD 0.91–USD 1.17) · 39 | USD 4.1B (USD 4.1B–USD 4.2B) · 36 | +20% |
| FY 2026 | USD 4.07 (USD 3.84–USD 4.36) · 44 | USD 16.2B (USD 16.2B–USD 16.4B) · 45 | +22% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-10-28.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 96,057,763 | $9.5B | -1,443,831 | 0.1% | 9.29% |
| State Street Passive / index | 49,038,218 | $4.9B | 979,726 | 0.1% | 4.74% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 11,395,881 | $1.1B | -889,118 | 0.0% | 1.10% |
| Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman) Guru | 873,485 | $86.7M | -626,515 | 0.4% | 0.08% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 635,381 | $63.1M | 635,381 | 0.3% | 0.06% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
| Investee | What | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scale AI | ServiceNow Ventures joined Scale's $1B Series F at a $13.8B valuation as a new investor (individual amount undisclosed) | 2024-05-21 | active |
ServiceNow · 2026-10-06 · product
ServiceNow announced AI Workflow Factory and Autonomous Engineer, solutions that discover where AI can improve work and build, run and extend AI workflows across the enterprise under its AI Control Tower governance. AI Workflow Factory is globally available, while Autonomous Engineer is in early access on request.
2026-10-29 PR Newswire Tech · ServiceNow Investigation Notice: SueWallSt Notifies Investors of Pending Investigation Into ServiceNow (NOW)
2026-10-29 PR Newswire Tech · SERVICE PROS AUTO GLASS NOW OFFERING WINDSHIELD REPAIR
2026-10-29 CNBC Top News · ServiceNow shares plunge 27% to worst day ever after earnings revive AI disruption fears
2026-10-29 MarketWatch Top Stories · ServiceNow’s stock is on track for its worst day ever. Here’s what went wrong.
2026-10-29 PR Newswire Energy · Envision Marks First International Application of SAFc at Global Citizen NOW, Providing Environmental Attributes Corresponding to 10 Tonnes of CO₂ Emissions Reductions
2026-10-29 PR Newswire Energy · Envision Marks First International Application of SAFc at Global Citizen NOW, Providing Environmental Attributes Corresponding to 10 Tonnes of CO₂ Emissions Reductions
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: NOW · ServiceNow (NOW) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: NOW · What ServiceNow (NOW) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: NOW · NOW Stock Declines Double Digits After Hours On Earnings Miss And AI Concerns
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · ServiceNow (NOW) Rolls Out Secure Agentic AI Across Retail, Telecom, Sales And IT
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · ServiceNow Fans AI Fears on Quarterly Subscription Sales Outlook
2026-10-28 MarketWatch Top Stories · ServiceNow’s stock slides as earnings miss overshadows a raised AI outlook
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · Carvana and Chipotle Soar After Earnings While Ford and ServiceNow Sink
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · ServiceNow Earnings Miss Amid Acquisitions, Revenue Beats
2026-10-28 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K/A - ServiceNow, Inc. (0001373715) (Filer)
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · ServiceNow (NOW) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
2026-10-28 PR Newswire Tech · Kong Joins ServiceNow Control Tower Alliance Aimed At Helping Enterprises Safely Adopt AI
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · Kong Joins ServiceNow Control Tower Alliance Aimed At Helping Enterprises Safely Adopt AI
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · ServiceNow shares slide as investors weigh slowing backlog growth against AI ambitions
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NOW · ServiceNow shares sink on earnings miss, weak Q4 revenue outlook
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-27 | earnings | ServiceNow earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — estimated from EDGAR filing cadence (last periodic filing + 91/365 days); confirm via IR. estimated | Medium |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | ServiceNow earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS miss · Rev beat |
| 2026-07-22 | ServiceNow earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · -3.7% |
| 2026-04-22 | ServiceNow earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · -17.7% |
