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Super Micro Computer (SMCI) ☆

servers & ODM · Industry Index 13 (rank #70) · $34.43 (-3.90%) · mkt cap $22.6B

ⓘ Data freshness

price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-08-31 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)

Builds GPU server systems and rack-scale liquid-cooled AI infrastructure.

Signal

signal: as of 2026-10-13

Short (~2 weeks)

0%
Low-confidence · Neutral
Conviction 0
  • News— Recent sentiment -0.09 vs 120d baseline -0.30 across 3 stories.[news][news][news]
  • Options positioning— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 56% / put 44% (net skew 0.13), unusualness 31/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 1 day.[options]
  • Price momentum— Technical flat across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.01, confidence 0.38 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Structural— Industry Index 13.6 (falling -5.4 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Medium (~3 months)

11%
Low-confidence · Neutral
Conviction 11
  • Growth trend— Revenue 123% YoY (decelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • Price momentum— Technical flat across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.01, confidence 0.38 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Structural— Industry Index 13.6 (falling -5.4 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Long (~6 months)

9%
Low-confidence · Neutral
Conviction 9
  • Growth trend— Revenue 123% YoY (decelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): narrow moat / at_parity / weak pricing ⇒ narrowing/lagging long-horizon tilt -0.01. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — smci — narrow moat, at_parity, weak pricing (as of 2026-08-31)]
  • Structural— Industry Index 13.6 (falling -5.4 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Show Details

Relationship network

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  • Dell Technologies — competitor
  • xAI — customer
  • NVIDIA — supplier · 80% · editorial estimate

Key relationships

  • Dell Technologies — competitor · Super Micro competes directly with Dell and HPE in the AI/GPU server market. source: matrixbcg.com
  • xAI — customer · Super Micro supplied more than half of the liquid-cooled racks and high-density GPU systems for xAI's Colossus supercomputer, built in 122 days. source: fortune.com
  • NVIDIA — supplier · 80% dependency editorial estimate · Super Micro's AI server systems are built around NVIDIA GPU baseboards (HGX/GB200); its AI revenue depends on NVIDIA allocation. source: sec.gov

Options positioning

delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-10-29
  • Call vs put volume: 61,767 calls · 39,698 puts — tilt +21.8% toward calls
  • Vol/OI turnover: 0.16×
  • Premium ($ notional proxy): $6.3M calls · $8.9M puts — tilt -16.6% toward puts
  • OTM tilt: +45.5% toward OTM calls
  • IV skew (put − call): -2.7%