Compare moats

The FY2025 10-K shows a moat that still pays but no longer compounds: total gross margin of 64.9% and remaining performance obligations of $43,533 million (up 6%) against a Networking product category that fell from $34,570 million in fiscal 2023 to $29,229 million in fiscal 2024 to $28,304 million in fiscal 2025, and a product gross-margin bridge in which 'Product pricing' subtracted 1.6 percentage points. All of the reported category growth came from Splunk-carrying lines - Security +59% and Observability +26%. Real and durable, but bounded: narrow, not wide.

source: sec.gov

The FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) shows contracted revenue, not a demonstrated competitive edge. About 1,410 MW is leased under 15-year take-or-pay, non-cancellable base terms worth about $36.2 billion, but only about 100 MW of the roughly 1.5 GW that is contracted and either operating or under construction was operating and earning revenue at May 31, 2026, and Item 1A says "lessees may have the right to terminate applicable leases if there are significant delays in construction." Item 1A also concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time," and the Competition section names 13 power-advantaged developers the company competes with. Signed leases give revenue visibility, but the filing does not show a durable advantage.

source: sec.gov

The advantage is narrow and confined to one small unit. In the FY2025 20-F (filed 2026-03-05), Nokia Technologies turned EUR 1 501m of net sales into EUR 1 059m of operating profit (70.6%) while the group earned EUR 885m on EUR 19 889m (4.4%) — licensing out-earned the whole company on 7.5% of sales. Mobile Networks ran a 2.8% margin, down 270bps from 5.5% in 2024, against risk factors citing "equipment price erosion and aggressive price competition". Nokia Technologies net sales fell 22% from EUR 1 928m and operating profit 30% on 2024 catch-up, yet it is not eroding: over EUR 800m of contracted recurring revenue runs through 2030 and Technology Standards grew 12% cc in H1'26.

source: sec.gov

The durable piece is the contracted annuity attached to installed equipment: total remaining performance obligations of $43,533 million, of which $21,961 million is services and $21,810 million is long-term (recognised beyond twelve months), carried at a services gross margin of 68.5% that has risen for three consecutive years from 66.4% and 68.1%. Customers keep paying for support on gear they already run.

source: sec.gov

The 10-K claims three advantages: power-advantaged sites (it believes securing power and interconnection ahead of demand is 'the principal constraint on new HPC capacity and a core differentiator for us from many of our competitors'), a standardized 'franchise-style' design, and hyperscaler master service and master telecom service agreements 'that are difficult to obtain.' The filing does not show any of them to be durable. Its Competition section says competition 'centers on securing and developing sites with access to large-scale, reliable, and cost-competitive power and interconnection' and names 13 power-advantaged developers going after the same leases, and Item 1A concedes it lacks the resources to compete with larger providers. Signed leases are take-or-pay and non-cancellable, so a tenant leaving for convenience owes 'the full remaining contractual value,' but that is contractual lock-in on each lease rather than a moat source, so no moat type is assigned.

source: sec.gov

The advantage is standard-essential cellular patents, and it lives in one unit. Nokia Technologies conducts "cellular, multimedia and WiFi research and standardization, protects Nokia's innovation by securing patents" and "monetizes Nokia's innovation through patent licensing", across "more than 26 000 families, including over 8 000 essential to 5G" and "more than 250 licensees" including Apple, Samsung and Mercedes-Benz. It is not network effects or switching costs: customers "may also consolidate their supplier base to our disadvantage - all the way to a one-supplier model". From 1 January 2026 the unit reports as Technology Standards inside Mobile Infrastructure.

source: sec.gov

The 10-K names no competitor and discloses no market share anywhere in Management's Discussion and Analysis. The positional facts it does give are scale and direction: Networking product revenue of $28,304 million in fiscal 2025 - by far the largest of its four categories - but down $6.3 billion from fiscal 2023, with channel partner financing volume falling from $32.1 billion to $27.1 billion to $24.9 billion across fiscal 2023-2025.

source: sec.gov

The 10-K makes no leadership claim and gives no ranking or share figure. Item 1A concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time" and that some rivals have "substantially greater liquidity and financial resources than we do." Its Competition section places APLD against established operators (Digital Realty, Equinix), hyperscalers that build their own capacity, independent developers and 13 named power-advantaged developers (IREN, Cipher Digital, TeraWulf, Hut 8, Riot, CleanSpark, HIVE, Core Scientific, Bitdeer, Galaxy Digital, Fermi, Keel Infrastructure, MARA).

source: sec.gov

Nokia is top-three almost everywhere and decisive only in slices. The 20-F reports that "Dell'Oro and Omdia ranked Nokia third in global Mobile RAN market share for the first three quarters", and Radio Networks is the largest single business unit (EUR 1 765m of EUR 4 815m group, Q2'26). It also holds #2 in global optical, #1 in IP edge routing and #1 in xPON OLT for a sixth year (Dell'Oro/Omdia Q3'25), while in data centers it competes "against large incumbent players" and calls expansion "challenging". 2025 segment sales were Network Infrastructure EUR 7 986m vs Mobile Networks EUR 7 806m; the Q2'26 6-K shows Optical +20%, IP +16% cc, AI & Cloud EUR 446m vs 220m, Radio +7%.

source: sec.gov

The product gross-margin bridge attributes fiscal 2025's 0.2-point improvement to productivity (+2.0 points) and mix (+1.1 points) while 'Product pricing' subtracted 1.6 points; a legal dispute with a supplier cost a further 0.8 points. Total gross margin of 64.9% (product 63.7%, services 68.5%) is held by cost and mix, not by price.

source: sec.gov

Item 1A says "Due to the limited number of hyperscalers, we expect that a limited number of customers will continue to account for a high percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future," and that if customers' equipment usage declines or they discontinue use of its facilities, APLD "may be compelled to lower our lease prices in some instances or risk losing a significant customer." One customer was 59% of FY2026 revenue from continuing operations. Take-or-pay, non-cancellable terms protect contracted revenue over the base term, and Note 19 reports a $39.1M HPC Hosting segment profit on $385.3M of segment revenue in FY2026, but those terms are agreed with a small group of concentrated buyers.

source: sec.gov

Pricing power is weak at the consolidated grain, in the filing's own words. The 20-F risk factors describe a market "characterized by maturing industry technologies... equipment price erosion and aggressive price competition", customers "reverting to vendors to compensate" for their own unit-revenue erosion, and warn Nokia "may increasingly be required to agree to less favorable contractual terms in order to remain competitive". Group operating margin was 4.4% in 2025. This band covers equipment, ~92% of sales, not licensing, whose FRAND-bound royalties ran a 70.6% margin; supply-tight optical is our inference, not filing text.

source: sec.gov

Supplies networking into AI datacenters: the 10-K ties Americas service provider and cloud growth to 'AI infrastructure revenue from webscale customers' and to Cisco Silicon One manufacturing commitments.

Developer and landlord of power-advantaged, liquid-cooled AI data-center capacity, leased long-term to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers.

• Cisco Silicon One and webscale AI infrastructure Challenger · Low source: sec.gov
• Collaboration (Webex Suite, devices, Contact Center, CPaaS) Challenger · Low source: sec.gov
• Networking (switching, routing, wireless, servers) Leader · Moderate source: sec.gov
• Observability (Splunk Observability Suite, ThousandEyes) Niche · Moderate source: sec.gov
• Security (Splunk TDR, SASE, network security) Top 3 · Moderate source: sec.gov
• Technical support and services Leader · Deep source: sec.gov

• Blockchain data center hosting (Jamestown / Ellendale) Niche · Low source: sec.gov
• HPC data center leasing (Polaris Forge / Delta Forge AI factories) Challenger · Moderate source: sec.gov

• Core Software (mobile core and autonomous networks) Leader · Moderate source: sec.gov
• Fixed Networks Leader · Moderate source: sec.gov
• IP Networks Challenger · Moderate source: sec.gov
• Optical Networks Top 3 · Moderate source: sec.gov
• Radio Networks (Mobile RAN) Top 3 · Moderate source: sec.gov
• Technology Standards (patent licensing, formerly Nokia Technologies) Unknown · Deep source: sec.gov

Editorial prior, not backtested.

see exactly how it voted →

Editorial prior, not backtested.

see exactly how it voted →

Editorial prior, not backtested.

see exactly how it voted →