AmbarellaShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-05Bearish
Structural carried this call — it supplied almost the entire lean; the other voters nearly net out.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.56
.33
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 6.0 (falling -9.3 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.479
Industry Index falling -9.3 [no link]−0.34861%
Industry Index level 6.0 [no link]−0.13123%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.479
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 63% / put 37% (net skew 0.26), unusualness 37/100. No known catalyst (unexplained — not proof of informed trading).
+0.040
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.040
📉
Price momentum Bullish
Technical flat across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.02, confidence 0.11 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
+0.004
▸Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0102%
Momentum (short) [no link]+0.0081%
Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]−0.0081%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]+0.0071%
OBV (short) [no link]+0.0061%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0061%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]+0.0061%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]+0.0020%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0010%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0000%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0000%
ADX 11 (trend strength 0.27) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.57 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 48 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to +0.004
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.56.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.436
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.56
→
Conviction
0.33
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.33 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-05 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26