AmbarellaShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-09Bearish
Structural carried this call — it supplied almost the entire lean; the other voters nearly net out.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.56
.30
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 5.7 (falling -9.6 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.379
Industry Index falling -9.6 [no link]−0.27556%
Industry Index level 5.7 [no link]−0.10421%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.379
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.17, confidence 0.23 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.069
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]−0.0194%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0184%
OBV (short) [no link]−0.0102%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0082%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0051%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0031%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0031%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0010%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0010%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0000%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]+0.0000%
ADX 11 (trend strength 0.28) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.50 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 48 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.069
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 68% / put 32% (net skew 0.35), unusualness 35/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 5 days.
+0.041
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.041
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.56.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.407
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.56
→
Conviction
0.30
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.30 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-09 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26