Cipher MiningShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-05Bearish
Structural led a bearish call; the other agents split, so conviction reflects the disagreement.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.64
.40
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 7.6 (falling -8.8 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.364
Industry Index falling -8.8 [no link]−0.26742%
Industry Index level 7.6 [no link]−0.09715%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.364
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.60, confidence 0.25 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.259
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]−0.07612%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0437%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0335%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0315%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0163%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0152%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0132%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0122%
OBV (short) [no link]−0.0112%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0051%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0041%
ADX 11 (trend strength 0.28) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.20 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 42 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.259
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 56% / put 44% (net skew 0.11), unusualness 34/100. No known catalyst (unexplained — not proof of informed trading).
+0.012
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.012
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.64.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.610
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.64
→
Conviction
0.40
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.40 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-05 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26