How the signal is computed

Eli Lilly and CompanyShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-05Neutral

News set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a negative tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.

Coverage

4/7

Agreement

0.73

.14

Conviction

How the swarm reasoned

✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict

📰

News Bearish

Recent sentiment 0.21 vs 120d baseline 0.34 across 5 stories.

−0.079

▸

U.S. FDA approves Inluriyo (imlunestrant) in combination with Verzenio (abemaciclib) for adults with ER+, HER2-, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer [src]+0.09014%

Eli Lilly (LLY) Wins Full FDA Approval For Retevmo In RET Fusion Tumors [src]−0.06811%

Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro gets approval for a new use [src]−0.0589%

Lilly breaks ground in Houston, one of ten U.S. manufacturing sites announced since 2020 [src]+0.0589%

Lilly presents early data supporting GLP-1/GIP candidate's potential in depression, alcohol use disorder [src]+0.0366%

Florida AG sues Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and three PBMs over insulin pricing [src]−0.0355%

Eli Lilly to buy AtaiBeckley (Nasdaq: ATAI) in $2.8B cash, CVR deal [src]−0.0295%

Lilly to Acquire AtaiBeckley in Up to $3.8 Billion Mental Health Deal [src]−0.0295%

Eli Lilly now owns all of AtaiBeckley [src]−0.0223%

Pfizer to Share Revenue With HHS in Deal on Overseas Drug Prices [src]−0.0213%

Novo Nordisk escalates false-advertising fight with Eli Lilly over obesity-drug comparisons [src]+0.0152%

Eli Lilly to buy Sangamo's gene-editing platforms and prion program in bankruptcy asset sale [src]−0.0152%

12 item(s) · sums to -0.079

🧭

Structural Driver

Industry Index 18.9 (falling -48.6 over window) — structural headwind.

−0.120

Industry Index falling -48.6 [no link]−0.09415%

Industry Index level 18.9 [no link]−0.0254%

2 item(s) · sums to -0.120

📉

Price momentum Bearish

Technical flat across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.05, confidence 0.33 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).

−0.010

▸

Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]+0.0142%

Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0081%

Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0071%

OBV (short) [no link]−0.0051%

ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]+0.0051%

RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0020%

Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0020%

Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0020%

Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0020%

MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0010%

MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0010%

ADX 18 (trend strength 0.45) [no link]0.0000%

Bollinger %B 0.41 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%

RSI 43 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%

14 item(s) · sums to -0.010

⚖️

Options positioning Bullish

Delayed per-contract options — call premium 54% / put 46% (net skew 0.07), unusualness 29/100. No known catalyst (unexplained — not proof of informed trading).

+0.002

▸

Unusual-activity net skew [src]+0.0020%

1 item(s) · sums to +0.002

📈

Growth Abstained

Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.

—

🏦

Smart money Abstained

13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.

—

🏰

Moat Abstained

The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.

—

Consensus · did they agree?

Most voters leaned one way; news dissented. Directional agreement 0.73.

The gate · score → conviction → verdict

Raw score

−0.206

Agree·cover·strength

0.73

→

Conviction

0.14

A clear neutral score; conviction 0.14 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.

as of 2026-10-05 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26

Signal history

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How the signal is computed — Eli Lilly and Company

Signal history