EMCOR GroupShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-09Neutral
Structural set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a negative tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.24
.01
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 9.3 (falling -6.5 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.322
Industry Index falling -6.5 [no link]−0.22644%
Industry Index level 9.3 [no link]−0.09619%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.322
📉
Price momentum Bullish
Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.23, confidence 0.26 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
+0.109
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]+0.0377%
Momentum (short) [no link]+0.0194%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]+0.0194%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]+0.0153%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]+0.0143%
OBV (short) [no link]−0.0122%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]+0.0092%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]+0.0071%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0061%
RSI trend (short) [no link]+0.0031%
Stochastic (short) [no link]+0.0031%
ADX 14 (trend strength 0.36) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.80 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 55 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to +0.109
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 76% / put 24% (net skew 0.51), unusualness 24/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 5 days.
+0.041
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.041
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.24.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.172
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.24
→
Conviction
0.01
A clear neutral score; conviction 0.01 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-09 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26