Nanya TechnologyShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-13Bearish
News led a bearish call; the other agents split, so conviction reflects the disagreement.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.67
.25
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
📰
News Driver
Recent sentiment 0.70 vs 120d baseline 1.00 across 1 story.
−0.166
Nanya Technology Q3 2026 revenue up 61.9% quarter on quarter; expects DRAM prices to rise further in Q4 [src]+0.38835%
Nanya Technology Posts Stunning Q2 Profit of Nearly 1.5 Times Equity Per Share; Capex Next Year Could Reach NT$200 Billion [src]−0.27725%
Taiwanese Memory Giant Nanya Technology Plans Massive T$200 Billion Expansion to Fuel the AI Boom [src]−0.27725%
3 item(s) · sums to -0.166
🧭
Structural Bearish
Industry Index 13.8 (falling -2.0 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.103
▸Industry Index level 13.8 [no link]−0.0575%
Industry Index falling -2.0 [no link]−0.0464%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.103
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.06, confidence 0.15 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.011
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]+0.0131%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0071%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0071%
Momentum (medium) [no link]+0.0071%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0050%
OBV (short) [no link]+0.0050%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0040%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0040%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0030%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0030%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0020%
ADX 9 (trend strength 0.23) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.24 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 44 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.011
⚖️
Options positioning Abstained
no liquid options snapshot
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; news dissented. Directional agreement 0.67.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.280
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.67
→
Conviction
0.25
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.25 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-13 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26