Nova LtdShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-09Bearish
Structural led a bearish call; the other agents split, so conviction reflects the disagreement.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.65
.41
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 8.5 (falling -8.7 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.318
Industry Index falling -8.7 [no link]−0.23438%
Industry Index level 8.5 [no link]−0.08313%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.318
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.48, confidence 0.36 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.265
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]−0.09616%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0559%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0376%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0274%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0203%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0163%
OBV (short) [no link]+0.0142%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0102%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0081%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0051%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0041%
ADX 18 (trend strength 0.44) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.31 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 40 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.265
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 56% / put 44% (net skew 0.11), unusualness 25/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 5 days.
+0.008
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.008
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.65.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.575
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.65
→
Conviction
0.41
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.41 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-09 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26