Nova Ltd (NVMI) ☆

equipment & EDA · Industry Index 9 (rank #149) · $304.00 (-2.60%) · mkt cap $9.7B

ⓘ Data freshness

price: as of 2026-11-02 index: as of 2026-11-02 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-03-31 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)

Israeli metrology company specializing in optical critical-dimension (OCD), materials and chemical metrology for advanced semiconductor process control.

Industry exposure 0.4 (Leading-edge OCD/materials metrology benefits from AI-driven logic and HBM, but Nova also serves broad process-control markets.)

Signal

signal: as of 2026-10-13

Short (~2 weeks)

42%

Bearish

Conviction 42

Options positioning— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 10% / put 90% (net skew -0.79), unusualness 28/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 1 day.[options]
Price momentum— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.70, confidence 0.46 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
Structural— Industry Index 8.5 (falling -8.7 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Medium (~3 months)

75%

Bearish

Conviction 75

Growth trend— Revenue 10% YoY (decelerating), net margin contracting.[filing]
Price momentum— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.70, confidence 0.46 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
Smart money— 1 filer(s) accumulating, 2 trimming in 2026Q2 (value-weighted net -0.99).[holding][holding][holding]
Structural— Industry Index 8.5 (falling -8.7 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Long (~6 months)

66%

Bearish

Conviction 66

Growth trend— Revenue 10% YoY (decelerating), net margin contracting.[filing]
moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): narrow moat / fast_follower / moderate pricing ⇒ wider/leading long-horizon tilt 0.06. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — nova-ltd — narrow moat, fast_follower, moderate pricing (as of 2026-02-17)]
Structural— Industry Index 8.5 (falling -8.7 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Show Details

Relationship network

Loading relationship graph…

TSMC — customer
Onto Innovation — competitor

Key relationships

TSMC — customer · Nova supplies dimensional and materials metrology (including OCD) to TSMC for advanced-node process control. source: en.wikipedia.org
Onto Innovation — competitor · Onto Innovation identifies Nova as a competitor in optical metrology and process control. source: sec.gov

Options positioning

delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-11-02

Call vs put volume: 433 calls · 365 puts — tilt +8.5% toward calls
Vol/OI turnover: 0.19×
Premium ($ notional proxy): $204291 calls · $627940 puts — tilt -50.9% toward puts
OTM tilt: +34.0% toward OTM calls
IV skew (put − call): -68.5%

Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.

Call/put premium?

8% C / 92% P

Side (inferred)?—

Active flags

20 (5 unexplained)

Standout

$280 PUT · 75.0× vol/OI

Recent flags

Why flagged:earnings in 9 days

Date	Contract	Score	Side (inferred)?	OI Δ?	Volume	Vol/OI
2026-10-27	$800 PUT	29	—	—	62	62.0×
2026-10-23	$800 PUT	29	—	—	62	62.0×
2026-10-19	$800 PUT	26	—	0	62	62.0×
2026-10-16	$800 PUT	26	—	0	62	62.0×
2026-10-16	$290 PUT	21	mid-market · no side	+83	100	0.8×
2026-10-15	$800 PUT	26	—	0	62	62.0×
2026-10-15	$290 PUT	22	buy-side	0	100	2.4×
2026-10-14	$800 PUT	26	—	0	62	62.0×

12 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.

Daily options volume vs baseline

latest session: 0.6× its 13-day baseline

Call/put premium

92%

8% calls / 92% puts (by premium)

See how this feeds the swarm's options vote →

Moat

moat: latest change 2026-02-17

Nova makes metrology systems that measure dimensions, films, materials and chemistry during chip manufacturing. Its 20-F groups the portfolio as integrated and standalone dimensional (optical CD) metrology, materials metrology (VeraFlex XPS/XRF, Metrion in-line SIMS, Elipson Raman), chemical metrology for plating baths (Ancolyzer, AncoScene, DMR, from the 2022 ancosys acquisition), and modeling software. The January 2025 Sentronics acquisition added modular dimensional metrology for wafer-level packaging. Nova sells 'substantially all' its products directly to chipmakers and serves 'all leading manufacturers in the logic, foundry, memory and packaging sectors'. 2025 revenue was a record $880.6 million, up 31%, and Q2 2026 revenue a record $255.0 million. The Q2 2026 release credits 'continued market share gains' and record revenue from advanced logic and advanced packaging. The 20-F names Onto Innovation and KLA as its main competitors, with process-equipment makers developing in-situ sensors and 'the recent emergence of local competitors in China'. On the Q1 2026 call (https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-14-nova-measuring-instruments-ltd-stock/), the CEO said Nova is 'seeing emerging XPS and material metrology competition', including from 'a local vendor in China'. The exposures are concentration (the five largest customers were 51% of 2025 revenue, one of them 23%), China (33% of 2025 revenue) and patent expiries on main-stream products.

Rating: narrow

Nova is gaining share and earning steady margins, but in a market another vendor dominates. On the Q1 2026 call (2026-05-14, https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-nova-semiconductors-beats-q1-2026-forecasts-stock-rises-93CH-4688858), the CEO said 'The latest Gartner market share report' shows 'an additional 400 basis points share gain in Film SIMS and critical dimension metrology', the 'second consecutive year of significant share growth, cementing Nova's position as this market's second-largest vendor'. The 2025 20-F (filed 2026-02-17) says Nova's product revenues grew at a CAGR of approximately 27.5% over 2020-2025, while Gartner estimates the process-control sector's CAGR at approximately 16.0%. Gross margin was 57.4% in 2025 and 57.6% in 2024. But the leader is KLA: Castellano of The Information Network (2025-09-10) writes that his non-metal thin film share table shows how KLA 'has entrenched its dominance' and how Nova 'has built a steady secondary position'. The 20-F also warns that 'a number of patents which relate to our main-stream products have already expired or are expected to expire in the coming years', which 'may add significant competition'. One customer took 23% of 2025 revenue and China 33%. Durable but second-place, so narrow.

Type: intangibles ip

The 20-F grounds Nova's position in measurement technology and know-how. Its patents cover optical measurement, integrated process-control concepts, X-ray measurement systems and chemical metrology, and it says 'Our in-house know-how is an important element of our intellectual property', adding that 'duplication of this coordination by competitors or individuals seeking to copy our products would be difficult' and that 'most of the core technology operating on our systems is not exposed to a user or to our competitors'. R&D staff numbered about 682, approximately 163 with Ph.D.s. Switching friction is real too: the 20-F says that once a manufacturer selects a vendor's equipment it 'generally relies upon that equipment for the specific production line application and frequently will attempt to consolidate its other capital equipment requirements with the same vendor'. But Nova is the share gainer against an incumbent, which points to technology rather than lock-in as the primary source. Patent expiries on main-stream products are a stated weakness.

Leadership: fast follower

The share evidence puts Nova second. On the Q1 2026 call the CEO said the latest Gartner market share report cements Nova's 'position as this market's second-largest vendor' in film and critical dimension metrology. That ranking comes from Gartner but reaches us through Nova's own call. Castellano (The Information Network, 2025-09-10, https://drrobertcastellano.substack.com/p/onto-innovations-strategic-drift) independently writes that his non-metal thin film share table shows how KLA 'has entrenched its dominance' and how Nova 'has built a steady secondary position'. Nova is stronger in sub-segments: SemiAnalysis (2022-09-06) writes that Nova has 'a high share in integrated optical critical dimension (OCD) inspection tools and materials metrology tools', though 'little success outside these sub-segments'.

Pricing power: moderate

Gross margin was 57.4% in 2025 and 57.6% in 2024 (Q4 2025 release), 57.7% in Q1 2026 and 56.5% in Q2 2026 (Q2 2026 release, https://www.novami.com/investors/press-releases/nova-reports-record-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/). The 20-F credits the shift to selling directly to chipmakers with improving 'our products gross margins and net profitability'. Buyers are concentrated: the five largest customers took 51% of 2025 revenue, with Customer A at 23%, and the 20-F warns that dependence on 'few process control product lines' exposes Nova to anything 'adversely affecting the pricing' of those lines.

Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov

Compare with…

Value-chain position

Layer: equipment & EDA

Upstream (suppliers): —
Downstream (customers): TSMC
Competitors: Onto Innovation

Upstream metrology supplier to logic, foundry, memory and packaging chipmakers, selling directly to manufacturers. Its integrated systems are built into process tools. China was 33%, Taiwan 29% and Korea 16% of 2025 revenue.

Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.

Signal contribution editorial prior

The moat prior voted +0.06 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is bearish (score -0.47, conviction 66).

Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →

Product lineup

Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.

Product	Market share	Technical barrier
Advanced-packaging dimensional metrology (Sentronics, Nova WMC) · Wafer-level packaging metrology Modular multi-sensor tools from the January 2025 Sentronics acquisition measuring thickness, roughness, topography and critical dimensions for wafer-level packaging and specialty devices; Nova WMC supports 2.5D and 3D packaging processes.	Challenger The 20-F says the Sentronics acquisition 'positions us in direct competition with companies such as Merck and Camtek'. The Information Network's 2021 SemiWiki post calls Camtek 'the leader in inspection and metrology in advanced packaging'. The Q2 2026 release reports record sales of 'our Sentronics dimensional metrology solutions for advanced packaging'. No source gives Nova's share.	Low Nova entered this market by acquisition in January 2025 against established rivals, and no source describes a barrier protecting its position yet.
Chemical metrology (Ancolyzer, AncoScene, DMR) · Plating-bath chemical analysis and replenishment Automated analysis and replenishment platforms for electroplating baths in front-end damascene interconnects, wafer-level packaging, TSV, PCB and IC-substrate processes.	Top 3 The 20-F calls this 'a market-leading portfolio', and the Q1 2026 release reports 'Record sales of Nova AncoScene front-end chemical metrology solution, attributable to market share gains and new customer wins'. Both are Nova's own statements and no independent share source was found, so the band is held at top_3 rather than leader. The 20-F notes that KLA acquired ECI Technology in 2022.	Moderate The 20-F says the growing number of front-end plating steps and organic compounds in advanced packaging drive demand for chemical process control, and its patents cover aspects of chemical metrology. No source describes what keeps a competitor out.
Integrated metrology (Nova i-platform) · Integrated optical metrology OCD and thin-film metrology built directly into process equipment to enable wafer-to-wafer advanced process control on advanced logic, memory and packaging lines.	Top 3 SemiAnalysis (2022-09-06) writes that Nova has 'a high share in integrated optical critical dimension (OCD) inspection tools'. Onto Innovation's 10-K names Nova as its 'primary competitor for integrated metrology systems'. The Q4 2025 release says the integrated portfolio was 'selected by a global leading logic customer to support CMP applications across Gate-All-Around (GAA) processes'. 'High share' is not a ranking, so the band is held at top_3.	Moderate The 20-F says integrated systems are 'directly integrated with manufacturing process equipment', which ties a position to a qualified process line. It also names ASML, Lam Research and Applied Materials as process-equipment makers that develop, or may acquire companies that develop, in-situ sensors and metrology products.
Materials metrology (VeraFlex, Metrion, Elipson) · X-ray, SIMS and Raman materials metrology VeraFlex uses XPS with an optional low-energy XRF channel for film composition and thickness, Metrion applies in-line SIMS for compositional depth profiling, and Elipson uses Raman spectroscopy for strain, crystallinity and composition.	Top 3 SemiAnalysis (2022) writes that Nova has 'a high share in' materials metrology tools. Nova's Q1 2026 release reports 'Record sales of Nova Metrion platform, driven by increased adoption in memory and logic advanced nodes manufacturing'. No source ranks the segment, so the band is held at top_3.	Moderate The 20-F calls materials 'the next frontier' and says Nova intends to increase its focus on the materials engineering market. But on the Q1 2026 call the CEO said 'We are also seeing emerging XPS and material metrology competition', from 'a local vendor in China as well as other potential growing competition in years to come'.
Standalone dimensional metrology (Nova Prism, T-platform, VeloCD, MMSR) · Optical CD and thin-film metrology Free-standing in-line tools that measure critical dimensions, profile, topography, thin films and roughness on the most advanced logic, memory and packaging steps, combined with Nova's modeling and machine-learning software.	Top 3 On the Q1 2026 call the CEO cited 'The latest Gartner market share report' showing 'an additional 400 basis points share gain in Film SIMS and critical dimension metrology', 'cementing Nova's position as this market's second-largest vendor'. Castellano (2025) independently places Nova in 'a steady secondary position' behind KLA in non-metal thin film metrology. Neither ranking separates standalone from integrated tools, and the Gartner figure reaches us only through Nova's CEO.	Moderate The 20-F says Nova Prism combines its 'exclusive SI technology with advanced modeling and machine-learning capabilities'. But the market leader holds the incumbency advantage: Castellano writes that 'KLA's decades of accumulated recipe libraries make it the default choice' for leading-edge ramps, and Nova's own 20-F warns of patent expiries on main-stream products.

What you're looking at

These charts plot Nova Ltd's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-03-31. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.

Over the reported window, net income at $259.2M in FY2025.

Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-11-02. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com

Period	EPS (est.)	Revenue (est.)	YoY
Q/E Sep 2026	USD 2.78 (USD 2.71–USD 2.84) · 8	USD 282809840.00 (USD 282000000.00–USD 286000000.00) · 6	+26%
FY 2026	USD 10.67 (USD 10.55–USD 10.78) · 8	USD 1.1B (USD 1.1B–USD 1.1B) · 7	+22%

Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.

Next report ~2026-11-05.

Our model leans Bearish on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.

Income statement

Cash flow & liquidity

Balance sheet

Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.

Filings

2026Q1 · filed 2026-03-31 source: finance.yahoo.com
FY2023 · filed 2026-02-17 source: sec.gov
FY2024 · filed 2026-02-17 source: sec.gov
FY2025 · filed 2026-02-17 source: sec.gov
2025Q4 · filed 2025-12-31 source: finance.yahoo.com

Show 39 older filings

2025Q3 · filed 2025-09-30 source: finance.yahoo.com
2025Q2 · filed 2025-06-30 source: finance.yahoo.com
2025Q1 · filed 2025-03-31 source: finance.yahoo.com
FY2022 · filed 2025-02-20 source: sec.gov
FY2023 · filed 2025-02-20 source: sec.gov
FY2021 · filed 2024-02-20 source: sec.gov
FY2022 · filed 2024-02-20 source: sec.gov
FY2020 · filed 2023-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2021 · filed 2023-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2019 · filed 2022-03-01 source: sec.gov
FY2020 · filed 2022-03-01 source: sec.gov
FY2019 · filed 2021-03-01 source: sec.gov
FY2018 · filed 2021-03-01 source: sec.gov
FY2018 · filed 2020-03-12 source: sec.gov
FY2017 · filed 2020-03-12 source: sec.gov
FY2016 · filed 2019-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2017 · filed 2019-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2014 · filed 2018-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2015 · filed 2018-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2016 · filed 2018-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2013 · filed 2017-03-03 source: sec.gov
FY2014 · filed 2017-03-03 source: sec.gov
FY2015 · filed 2017-03-03 source: sec.gov
FY2012 · filed 2016-02-29 source: sec.gov
FY2013 · filed 2016-02-29 source: sec.gov
FY2014 · filed 2016-02-29 source: sec.gov
FY2011 · filed 2015-02-25 source: sec.gov
FY2012 · filed 2015-02-25 source: sec.gov
FY2013 · filed 2015-02-25 source: sec.gov
FY2014 · filed 2015-02-25 source: sec.gov
FY2010 · filed 2014-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2011 · filed 2014-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2012 · filed 2014-02-28 source: sec.gov
FY2009 · filed 2013-03-11 source: sec.gov
FY2010 · filed 2013-03-11 source: sec.gov
FY2011 · filed 2013-03-11 source: sec.gov
FY2008 · filed 2012-03-28 source: sec.gov
FY2009 · filed 2012-03-28 source: sec.gov
FY2010 · filed 2012-03-28 source: sec.gov

Key ratios vs peers

Comparing against peers…

Institutional holders (13F, 2026Q2)

3 tracked gurus hold Nova Ltd: 1 accumulating, 2 trimming — net position-size tilt -0.99. Passive index filers are excluded.

Institution	Shares	Value	Δ shares QoQ	% of 13F	% shares out
FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index	2,671,472	$1.5B	-87,721	0.1%	8.40%
BlackRock Passive / index	720,830	$391.4M	94,988	0.0%	2.27%
Renaissance Technologies Guru	448,586	$243.6M	-62,280	0.3%	1.41%
ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood) Guru	4,220	$2.3M	-862	0.0%	0.01%
State Street Passive / index	3,027	$1.6M	-142	0.0%	0.01%
Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru	1,488	$807895	1,488	0.0%	0.00%

TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.

What a 13F can’t show you

Delayed 45+ days. Positions are as-of the quarter-end shown, filed up to 45 days later.
Long-only, US-listed. No shorts, cash, bonds, FX, foreign, or private holdings; listed options are reported at notional and excluded from per-position equity value.
$100M threshold. Smaller managers never file.
“% of 13F” is not “% of AUM”. A 13F is a partial book.
“Sold out” means “no longer reported” — not necessarily sold.
One CIK can aggregate multiple sub-entities. Confidential treatment can omit positions.
Passive index filers are not gurus. Their 13F changes are index flows, and they are excluded from TradingPilot’s smart-money signal.
Quant caveat. A quant filer’s 13F (e.g. Renaissance) is a long-only quarter-end snapshot and does NOT reflect its actual high-turnover, short-horizon strategy.
Guru pages and holdings never feed a signal (weightless).

Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.

Upcoming

Date	Type	Event	Impact
2026-11-05	earnings	Nova Ltd earnings — Company-confirmed date. confirmed	Medium

Past

Date	Event	Impact	Outcome
2026-08-06	Nova Ltd earnings confirmed	Medium	EPS beat · +3.1%

See the full calendar →

Nova Ltd (NVMI) ☆

Signal

Short (~2 weeks)

Medium (~3 months)

Long (~6 months)

Relationship network

Key relationships

Options positioning

Recent flags

Daily options volume vs baseline

Call/put premium

Signal history

Moat

Value-chain position

Signal contribution editorial prior

Product lineup

What you're looking at

Income statement

Cash flow & liquidity

Balance sheet

Filings

Key ratios vs peers

Institutional holders (13F, 2026Q2)

Nova (NVMI) Lands Tool Of Record Win At Global Foundry For Advanced Packaging

Headlines

Upcoming

Past