Semiconductor Manufacturing International CorporationShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-05Bearish
Structural led a bearish call; the other agents split, so conviction reflects the disagreement.
Coverage
2/7
Agreement
0.50
.24
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
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Structural Driver
Industry Index 9.8 (falling -6.6 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.320
Industry Index falling -6.6 [no link]−0.22637%
Industry Index level 9.8 [no link]−0.09415%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.320
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.48, confidence 0.34 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.296
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]−0.10717%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.06110%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0386%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0173%
OBV (short) [no link]−0.0152%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0142%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0142%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0091%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0081%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0071%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0051%
ADX 15 (trend strength 0.38) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.27 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 40 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.296
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
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⚖️
Options positioning Abstained
no liquid options snapshot
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📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
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🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
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Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.50.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.615
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.50
→
Conviction
0.24
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.24 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-05 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26