护城河对比

The FY2026 10-K competition section describes tool-level qualification lock-in as the structural fact of the industry: 'semiconductor manufacturers must make a substantial investment to qualify and integrate new capital equipment into semiconductor production lines. As a result, once a semiconductor manufacturer has selected a particular supplier's equipment and qualified it for production, the manufacturer generally maintains that selection for that specific production application and technology node as long as the supplier's products demonstrate performance to specification in the installed base.' The filing then sizes what that incumbency is worth: of 23,232,690 thousand dollars of FY2026 revenue, 8,347,202 thousand - about 36% - was customer-support-related revenue and other, which the same document defines as 'sales of customer services, spares, upgrades, and non-leading-edge equipment' sold back into the installed base. A qualified position plus a third of revenue annuitised against it is a durable barrier rather than a cyclical one.

来源：sec.gov

The FY2025 20-F positions Nebius as 'one of the few global, at scale, multi-tenant clouds purpose built for AI,' but the same filing names its central dependency plainly: 'We currently rely on Nvidia for the GPU chips we use' — a purpose-built neocloud renting a supply the hyperscalers it competes with also control, which is a real but narrow position.

来源：sec.gov

2025 年年报（发布于 2026-03-12）称 'ASM is the leader in the fast-growing single-wafer ALD market – with a market share of 55%+ (ASM estimate, Investor Day 2025)'。报告称，随着行业从 FinFET 转向 GAA，ASM 'maintained leadership with our market share surpassing 55%'。报告还称 'Based on the breadth of our R&D engagements and critical production-tool-of-record (PTOR) selections already secured in 2025, we expect to at least maintain our market share'，并延续至 1.4nm 节点。Q2 2026 业绩（https://www.asm.com/media/y0mkxj21/20260728-asm-reports-second-quarter-2026-results.pdf）称，1.4nm 节点有望按计划在 2026 年下半年首次带来有意义的贡献，'reflecting increased market share gains in both ALD and Epi'。2025 年毛利率为 51.8%。这是一个强势且盈利的地位，但其背后的每一个份额数字都是 ASM 自己的估计或预期，没有独立的份额来源佐证，因此评级为窄而非宽。风险敞口同样构成压力：前五大客户约占 2025 年营收的 53.6%，中国超过 30%，而报告将主要竞争对手描述为 'much larger companies from the United States and Asia'。

来源：asm.com

The 10-K grounds the advantage in the cost of requalification, not in scale or patents: a customer that has qualified a competitor's tool is hard to win, and conversely Lam's own qualified positions persist for that application and node. The same section adds that the company must keep serving 'our installed base of customers through the delivery of high-quality and cost-efficient spare parts', naming the installed base as the asset being defended.

来源：sec.gov

The moat the filing describes is engineering: designs that 'optimize power and cooling efficiency, lower latency' plus 'a consistent track record of being one of the first-to-deploy the latest generation of NVIDIA GPU chips' — density and time-to-deploy at scale, not a switching lock.

来源：sec.gov

报告将 ALD 领先地位建立在积累的工艺诀窍和专利之上，而非单位成本：'ASM has the broadest portfolio of ALD products with innovative ALD reactor designs. Our strength in chemistries and applications using new materials means our customers can meet advanced node technology challenges.' 报告还引用一项 LexisNexis PatentSight 研究，其结论为 'ASM holds a strong and impactful patent portfolio on its core strength of ALD as measured by both Competitive Impact and Patent Asset Index'。转换摩擦进一步强化了这一点。设备通过 PTOR 选型进入晶圆厂，报告指出 'Failing a customer during a production ramp could create significant problems for them'，且已安装的系统会获得支持，'with a view to having them in production 24/7 for 20+ years'。但 ASM 是凭借工艺能力逐个节点赢得这些 PTOR 席位的，这使知识产权成为主要来源。

来源：asm.com

The 10-K claims position but not primacy: 'We believe we are in a strong position with our leadership and expertise in deposition, etch, and clean markets.' The same document names Applied Materials as primary competitor in deposition and Applied Materials, Hitachi and Tokyo Electron as primary competitors in etch, which is a shared-leadership structure rather than a clear single leader.

来源：sec.gov

The 20-F's own claim is 'one of the FEW global, at scale' AI clouds — a differentiated challenger to the hyperscalers it names as the competitive field, not a claimed leader of it; the first-to-deploy record is a follower's speed advantage, not category leadership.

来源：sec.gov

In single-wafer ALD, which is more than half of equipment sales, the report calls ASM 'the leader' with a 55%+ share. That share is ASM's own estimate; the Investor Day 2025 deck (https://www.asm.com/media/m3jhkm12/asm_investor_day_2025.pdf) sources it to 'ASM internal analysis and TechInsights'. With no independent share source, the band is held at co_leader rather than clear_leader. ASM does not lead every line: 'ASM has the number two share in the Epi equipment market', and in PECVD and vertical furnaces it is 'focused on niche portions of the market'.

来源：asm.com

Real but bounded, and the filing is explicit that the recent gain was mix rather than price. Gross margin as a percent of total revenue rose 180 basis points to 50.5% in fiscal 2026 from 48.7% in fiscal 2025 (gross margin of 11,725,308 thousand dollars on revenue of 23,232,690 thousand, against 8,979,059 on 18,435,591; 7,052,791 on 14,905,386 in fiscal 2024), and the MD&A attributes that: 'Gross margin as a percentage of revenue increased in fiscal year 2026 compared to fiscal year 2025 largely due to favorable customer mix, partially offset by aluminum and steel tariff-related spend.' Against it, the same filing says manufacturers evaluate suppliers on 'overall cost of ownership', that the spares business competes with third-party spare parts providers, and that the customer list is a handful of very large buyers (Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC named as the most significant customers).

来源：sec.gov

The filing frames a 'highly competitive' market with 'frequent introduction of new or improved solutions' and a GPU cost base set by a single supplier (NVIDIA) — a renter of compute competing on efficiency has little list-price control.

来源：sec.gov

Gross margin rose from 50.5% to 51.8% in 2025 and was 51.9% in Q2 2026. But the report attributes the 2025 gain to 'a very strong mix, including a continued solid contribution from the Chinese market' and to efficiency programs, not to price. It targets a range of 47% to 51% for 2026-2030, and the Q2 2026 release expects full-year 2026 gross margin 'to be around 51%'. Buyers are concentrated: the 10 largest customers were about 72.3% of 2025 revenue, the five largest about 53.6%, and two customers each contributed more than 10% of total revenue.

来源：asm.com

Upstream wafer-fabrication-equipment supplier; the 10-K names Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC as its most significant customers across FY2024-FY2026, so Lam sits one step above the memory and foundry capacity that AI compute depends on.

Layer-8 neocloud — a purpose-built AI compute provider reselling NVIDIA silicon at scale.

Upstream wafer-fab-equipment supplier to logic/foundry and memory chipmakers. 'The leading-edge logic/foundry market was the main growth driver for ASM, on the back of 2nm investments' in 2025, advanced-node DRAM was the largest part of memory sales, and Asia was 80% of revenue.

• Clean systems (EOS, DV-Prime, Da Vinci, SP Series, Coronus families) 挑战者 · 中等 来源：sec.gov
• Customer Support Business Group (spares, upgrades, service, Reliant) 领先 · 中等 来源：sec.gov
• Deposition systems (ALTUS, SABRE, VECTOR, Striker families) 前三 · 深 来源：sec.gov
• Etch systems (Kiyo, Flex, Vantex, Syndion, Argos families) 前三 · 深 来源：sec.gov

• Nebius AI cloud (GPU compute + managed AI/ML platform) 挑战者 · 中等 来源：sec.gov
• Toloka / Avride / TripleTen (non-cloud segments) 未知 · 低 来源：sec.gov

• PECVD and vertical furnaces 细分市场 · 低 来源：asm.com
• Silicon carbide epitaxy systems 未知 · 中等 来源：asm.com
• Silicon epitaxy systems (Intrepid, Epsilon) 前三 · 中等 来源：asm.com
• Single-wafer ALD systems 前三 · 深 来源：asm.com

编辑先验，未经回测。

查看它究竟如何投票 →

编辑先验，未经回测。

查看它究竟如何投票 →

编辑先验，未经回测。

查看它究竟如何投票 →