Constellation Energy (CEG) ☆

datacenters, power & cooling · Industry Index 13 (rank #75) · $262.38 (-0.80%) · mkt cap $93.0B

ⓘ Data freshness

price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-08-06 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)

Constellation Energy is the largest US operator of carbon-free nuclear generation and sells power under long-term contracts.

Industry exposure 0.4 (Largest US nuclear operator whose growth thesis leans on data center PPAs, though most output still serves the broader grid.)

Signal

signal: as of 2026-10-13

Short (~2 weeks)

21%

Bullish

Conviction 21

News— Recent sentiment 0.70 vs 120d baseline 0.35 across 2 stories.[news][news]
Options positioning— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 69% / put 31% (net skew 0.37), unusualness 26/100. Context: Consumer Price Index in 1 day.[options]
Price momentum— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.59, confidence 0.52 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
Structural— Industry Index 13.9 (falling -4.1 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Medium (~3 months)

Low-confidence · Neutral

Conviction 0

Growth trend— Revenue 13% YoY (decelerating), net margin contracting.[filing]
Price momentum— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.59, confidence 0.52 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
Smart money— 0 filer(s) accumulating, 1 trimming in 2026Q2 (value-weighted net -0.00).[holding][holding]
Structural— Industry Index 13.9 (falling -4.1 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Long (~6 months)

10%

Low-confidence · Neutral

Conviction 10

Growth trend— Revenue 13% YoY (decelerating), net margin contracting.[filing]
moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): wide moat / clear_leader / moderate pricing ⇒ wider/leading long-horizon tilt 0.38. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — ceg — wide moat, clear_leader, moderate pricing (as of 2026-02-24)]
Structural— Industry Index 13.9 (falling -4.1 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Show Details

Relationship network

Loading relationship graph…

Microsoft — customer
Vistra — competitor

Key relationships

Microsoft — customer · Constellation Energy signed a 20-year PPA to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island Unit 1), dedicating about 835 MW of nuclear power to Microsoft's data centers. source: constellationenergy.com
Vistra — competitor · Vistra, the largest US competitive power generator (~41 GW incl. ~6.4 GW nuclear and the world's-largest Moss Landing battery storage), competes with Constellation Energy, owner of the largest US nuclear fleet, in wholesale power markets. source: sec.gov

Options positioning

delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-10-30

Call vs put volume: 3,780 calls · 3,470 puts — tilt +4.3% toward calls
Vol/OI turnover: 0.09×
Premium ($ notional proxy): $1.6M calls · $2.9M puts — tilt -28.2% toward puts
OTM tilt: +18.4% toward OTM calls
IV skew (put − call): -16.0%

Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.

Call/put premium?

36% C / 64% P

Side (inferred)?mid-market · no side

Active flags

Standout

$287.5 CALL · 23.1× vol/OI

Recent flags

Why flagged:earnings in 6 days

Date	Contract	Score	Side (inferred)?	OI Δ?	Volume	Vol/OI
2026-10-30	$275 CALL	41	sell-side	+485	531	0.6×
2026-10-30	$285 PUT	33	mid-market · no side	-56	84	84.0×
2026-10-30	$265 PUT	23	buy-side	+1	72	1.9×

17 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.

Daily options volume vs baseline

latest session: 0.8× its 13-day baseline

Call/put premium

36%

64%

36% calls / 64% puts (by premium)

See how this feeds the swarm's options vote →

Moat

moat: latest change 2026-02-24

Constellation pairs the largest US nuclear fleet with the largest competitive retail book, which lets it sell around-the-clock carbon-free power under long-term contracts such as the 20-year Microsoft PPA restarting Three Mile Island Unit 1 as the 835 MW Crane Clean Energy Center.

Rating: wide

The FY2025 10-K describes the nation's largest nuclear fleet — approximately 22 GW across 14 stations producing 68% of 2025 electric supply — running at a 94.7% capacity factor that 'has been approximately four percentage points better than the industry average annually since 2013', with NRC licences extending to 2054 and an IRA nuclear production tax credit floor from 2024.

Type: cost scale

The cited edge is operating cost at scale: average refuelling outages of 22 days in 2025 against industry averages of 33 and 38 days in 2024 and 2023, a capacity factor about four points above the industry every year since 2013, and 'significant economies of scale' in what the filing calls the largest US customer-facing energy platform.

Leadership: clear leader

The 10-K states Constellation is 'the largest nuclear energy company in the U.S.', is 'the nation's largest energy supplier for C&I and residential power volumes' based on EEI data, and has 'over 32% of the C&I market share of direct customer business'.

Pricing power: moderate

The 10-K states 'While providing customers with a competitive price is a key focus' in retail, on roughly two-year average C&I contract terms with 77% power and 84% gas renewal rates in 2025, and the nuclear fleet's downside is set by the IRA nuclear PTC 'as unit revenues decline below levels established in the IRA'; SEC-reported operating income was 13.6% of revenue in 2025.

Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov

Compare with…

Value-chain position

Layer: datacenters, power & cooling

Upstream (suppliers): —
Downstream (customers): Microsoft
Competitors: Vistra

Generator and retailer in one — the fleet is the physical supply behind the long-term carbon-free contracts it sells to large corporate buyers.

Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.

Signal contribution editorial prior

The moat prior voted +0.38 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score -0.21, conviction 10).

Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →

Product lineup

Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.

Product	Market share	Technical barrier
Carbon-free energy products (CORe+, Hourly CFE, long-term nuclear agreements) · Energy solutions Hourly-matched carbon-free supply and long-term nuclear energy, capacity and attribute contracts for large corporate buyers.	Unknown The 10-K reports growing demand and 'a strong pipeline of interested prospects' for Hourly CFE and interest from large C&I customers in long-term nuclear contracting, but discloses no share position.	Deep The filing states many customers converting to 100% hourly carbon-free power rely on 'existing nuclear filling in the gaps of the hours renewable generation is not producing' — a product that requires owning around-the-clock carbon-free generation.
Competitive retail energy supply · Customer-facing Electric and gas supply to C&I, public sector and residential customers, serving approximately 147 TWh of retail electric load and 800 Bcf of gas in 2025.	Leader The 10-K states Constellation is 'the nation's largest energy supplier for C&I and residential power volumes' based on EEI data and 'the market leader in direct C&I sales with over 32% of the C&I market share of direct customer business'.	Moderate The filing reports 2025 renewal rates of 77% for C&I power and 84% for C&I gas on roughly two-year contracts with about six-year customer duration, while noting competitive price is a key focus.
Natural gas and geothermal generation (including Calpine) · Generation Approximately 7 GW of owned gas and oil generation plus 21 GW of Calpine gas capacity and the Geysers geothermal portfolio.	Leader The 10-K states Calpine, acquired January 7, 2026, 'is the nation's largest generator of electricity from natural gas and geothermal resources, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence', and that the Geysers Assets are 'the largest geothermal power generation portfolio in the U.S.'.	Moderate The filing states natural gas and oil plants 'are generally not licensed, and therefore, the decision on when to retire plants is, fundamentally, a commercial one' — entry and exit are commercial rather than regulatory.
Nuclear generation fleet · Generation Approximately 22 GW across 14 stations and 25 units producing 183 TWh of zero-emissions electricity in 2025.	Leader The 10-K states 'Our nuclear fleet is the nation's largest' and that Constellation is 'the largest nuclear energy company in the U.S.'.	Deep The filing states all units received 20-year licence renewals, that Peach Bottom and Dresden have subsequent renewals extending to an 80-year term, and that the NRC renewal process alone 'takes approximately three years from commencement'.
Wholesale power and gas marketing · Customer-facing Sales to utilities, municipalities and cooperatives plus gas trading, transport, storage and physical supply.	Unknown The 10-K reports approximately 57 TWh of power load served in 2025 across competitive utility load procurement and bilateral sales, but discloses no share.	Low The filing describes this as a channel-to-market for monetising its own generation and sourcing contracted supply, competing in spot and bilateral markets across all domestic power regions.

What you're looking at

These charts plot Constellation Energy's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-08-06. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.

Over the reported window, net income at $2.3B in FY2025.

Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com

Period	EPS (est.)	Revenue (est.)	YoY
Q/E Sep 2026	USD 3.74 (USD 3.33–USD 4.06) · 11	USD 9.3B (USD 7.8B–USD 11.3B) · 7	+42%
FY 2026	USD 12.11 (USD 11.77–USD 12.45) · 21	USD 35.8B (USD 29.5B–USD 43.0B) · 15	+40%

Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.

Next report ~2026-11-09.

Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.

Income statement

Cash flow & liquidity

Balance sheet

Filings

2025Q2 · filed 2026-08-06 source: sec.gov
2025Q4 · filed 2026-08-06 source: sec.gov
2026Q2 · filed 2026-08-06 source: sec.gov
2025Q3 · filed 2026-08-06 source: sec.gov
2025Q1 · filed 2026-05-11 source: sec.gov

Show 41 older filings

2026Q1 · filed 2026-05-11 source: sec.gov
FY2023 · filed 2026-02-24 source: sec.gov
FY2024 · filed 2026-02-24 source: sec.gov
FY2025 · filed 2026-02-24 source: sec.gov
2024Q3 · filed 2025-11-07 source: sec.gov
2024Q4 · filed 2025-11-07 source: sec.gov
2025Q3 · filed 2025-11-07 source: sec.gov
2024Q2 · filed 2025-08-07 source: sec.gov
2025Q2 · filed 2025-08-07 source: sec.gov
2024Q1 · filed 2025-05-06 source: sec.gov
2025Q1 · filed 2025-05-06 source: sec.gov
FY2022 · filed 2025-02-18 source: sec.gov
FY2023 · filed 2025-02-18 source: sec.gov
2023Q3 · filed 2024-11-04 source: sec.gov
2023Q4 · filed 2024-11-04 source: sec.gov
2024Q3 · filed 2024-11-04 source: sec.gov
2023Q2 · filed 2024-08-06 source: sec.gov
2024Q2 · filed 2024-08-06 source: sec.gov
2023Q1 · filed 2024-05-09 source: sec.gov
2024Q1 · filed 2024-05-09 source: sec.gov
FY2021 · filed 2024-02-27 source: sec.gov
FY2022 · filed 2024-02-27 source: sec.gov
2022Q3 · filed 2023-11-06 source: sec.gov
2022Q4 · filed 2023-11-06 source: sec.gov
2023Q3 · filed 2023-11-06 source: sec.gov
2021Q4 · filed 2023-08-03 source: sec.gov
2022Q2 · filed 2023-08-03 source: sec.gov
2023Q2 · filed 2023-08-03 source: sec.gov
2022Q1 · filed 2023-05-04 source: sec.gov
2023Q1 · filed 2023-05-04 source: sec.gov
FY2019 · filed 2023-02-16 source: sec.gov
FY2020 · filed 2023-02-16 source: sec.gov
FY2021 · filed 2023-02-16 source: sec.gov
2020Q4 · filed 2022-11-08 source: sec.gov
2021Q3 · filed 2022-11-08 source: sec.gov
2021Q4 · filed 2022-11-08 source: sec.gov
2022Q3 · filed 2022-11-08 source: sec.gov
2021Q2 · filed 2022-08-04 source: sec.gov
2022Q2 · filed 2022-08-04 source: sec.gov
2021Q1 · filed 2022-05-12 source: sec.gov
2022Q1 · filed 2022-05-12 source: sec.gov

Key ratios vs peers

Comparing against peers…

Institutional holders (13F, 2026Q2)

2 tracked gurus hold Constellation Energy: 0 accumulating, 1 trimming — net position-size tilt -0.00. Passive index filers are excluded.

Institution	Shares	Value	Δ shares QoQ	% of 13F	% shares out
BlackRock Passive / index	24,555,970	$6.1B	1,046,771	0.1%	6.93%
State Street Passive / index	19,411,636	$4.8B	615,248	0.1%	5.48%
FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index	6,538,601	$1.6B	-3,643,043	0.1%	1.85%
Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont) Guru	4,632,475	$1.2B	0	2.4%	1.31%
Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru	23,123	$5.7M	-183,216	0.0%	0.01%

TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.

What a 13F can’t show you

Delayed 45+ days. Positions are as-of the quarter-end shown, filed up to 45 days later.
Long-only, US-listed. No shorts, cash, bonds, FX, foreign, or private holdings; listed options are reported at notional and excluded from per-position equity value.
$100M threshold. Smaller managers never file.
“% of 13F” is not “% of AUM”. A 13F is a partial book.
“Sold out” means “no longer reported” — not necessarily sold.
One CIK can aggregate multiple sub-entities. Confidential treatment can omit positions.
Passive index filers are not gurus. Their 13F changes are index flows, and they are excluded from TradingPilot’s smart-money signal.
Quant caveat. A quant filer’s 13F (e.g. Renaissance) is a long-only quarter-end snapshot and does NOT reflect its actual high-turnover, short-horizon strategy.
Guru pages and holdings never feed a signal (weightless).

Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.

Upcoming

Date	Type	Event	Impact
2026-11-09	earnings	Constellation Energy earnings — Company-confirmed date. confirmed	Medium

Past

Date	Event	Impact	Outcome
2026-08-06	Constellation Energy earnings confirmed	High	EPS beat · Rev miss · +3.4%
2026-05-11	Constellation Energy earnings confirmed	High	EPS beat · -2.0%

See the full calendar →