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Microsoft (MSFT) ☆

cloud & hyperscalers · Industry Index 31 (rank #8) · $530.14 (-0.20%) · mkt cap $3.9T

ⓘ Data freshness

price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-10-28 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)

Hyperscaler (Azure), OpenAI's key partner and distributor of frontier models into enterprise software.

Signal

signal: as of 2026-10-13

Short (~2 weeks)

54%
Bullish
Conviction 54
  • News— Recent sentiment 0.30 vs 120d baseline 0.24 across 8 stories.[news][news][news]
  • Options positioning— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 77% / put 23% (net skew 0.53), unusualness 39/100. Context: matches: Microsoft to scale Azure Maia to multi-gigawa….[options]
  • Price momentum— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.70, confidence 0.90 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Structural— Industry Index 33.0 (rising 5.8 over window) — structural tailwind.[index] · derived internally

Medium (~3 months)

40%
Bullish
Conviction 40
  • Growth trend— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • Price momentum— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.70, confidence 0.90 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Smart money— 1 filer(s) accumulating, 5 trimming in 2026Q2 (value-weighted net -0.12).[holding][holding][holding][holding][holding]
  • Structural— Industry Index 33.0 (rising 5.8 over window) — structural tailwind.[index] · derived internally

Long (~6 months)

64%
Bullish
Conviction 64
  • Growth trend— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): wide moat / co_leader / strong pricing ⇒ wider/leading long-horizon tilt 0.35. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — msft — wide moat, co_leader, strong pricing (as of 2026-07-29)]
  • Structural— Industry Index 33.0 (rising 5.8 over window) — structural tailwind.[index] · derived internally

Show Details

Relationship network

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  • Harvey — partner
  • Legora — partner
  • Luminance — partner
  • Datadog — competitor
  • Synopsys — partner
  • Palo Alto Networks — competitor
  • Coca-Cola — customer
  • Walmart — customer
  • AMD — supplier
  • Applied Optoelectronics — supplier
  • Constellation Energy — supplier
  • CoreWeave — supplier · 62% · disclosed
  • Credo Technology — supplier
  • IREN — supplier
  • Lambda — supplier
  • Anthropic — partner
  • C3.ai — partner
  • Cloudflare — partner
  • d-Matrix — portfolio company
  • Mistral AI — partner
  • Nebius Group — supplier
  • NetApp — partner
  • Wiwynn — supplier
  • OpenAI — supplier · 50% · editorial estimate
  • NVIDIA — supplier · 60% · editorial estimate
  • OpenAI — portfolio company
  • OpenAI — customer · 50% · editorial estimate
  • Arista Networks — supplier · 40% · editorial estimate

Key relationships

  • Harvey — partner · Harvey runs on Azure OpenAI Service infrastructure and fine-tunes models jointly with Microsoft to customise them per customer. source: microsoft.com
  • Legora — partner · Legora runs on Microsoft Azure using Azure OpenAI Service, and integrates into Microsoft Word and SharePoint as its working surface. source: microsoft.com
  • Luminance — partner · Luminance delivers AI-powered contract review and negotiation inside Microsoft Word, making a Microsoft surface its primary negotiation entry point. source: luminance.com
  • Datadog — competitor · Datadog names Microsoft among the diversified technology and systems management vendors it competes with in on-premise infrastructure monitoring. source: sec.gov
  • Synopsys — partner · Synopsys Cloud's EDA Software-as-a-Service solution was developed in partnership with Microsoft Azure. source: sec.gov
  • Palo Alto Networks — competitor · Palo Alto Networks names Microsoft among the large companies that incorporate security features into their products and compete with it. source: sec.gov
  • Coca-Cola — customer · Under a five-year strategic partnership announced 23 April 2024, Coca-Cola made a $1.1 billion commitment to the Microsoft Cloud, and the two companies agreed to jointly experiment with Azure OpenAI Service to develop generative AI use cases across business functions and to test how Copilot for Microsoft 365 could improve workplace productivity, expanding on the $250 million agreement the release says Coca-Cola initially announced with Microsoft in 2020. source: coca-colacompany.com
  • Walmart — customer · Walmart's redesigned generative-AI search combines Walmart proprietary data and technology with large language models including those available in Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service plus retail-specific models built by Walmart, and its associate-facing "My Assistant" app leverages Walmart proprietary data, technology and large language models in Azure OpenAI Service. source: blogs.microsoft.com
  • AMD — supplier · Microsoft Azure deploys AMD Instinct MI300X accelerators to run AI workloads including OpenAI models. source: ir.amd.com
  • Applied Optoelectronics — supplier · Applied Optoelectronics supplies datacenter optical transceivers to Microsoft, which has accounted for a significant portion of its data-center revenue. source: finance.yahoo.com
  • Constellation Energy — supplier · Constellation Energy signed a 20-year PPA to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island Unit 1), dedicating about 835 MW of nuclear power to Microsoft's data centers. source: constellationenergy.com
  • CoreWeave — supplier · 62% dependency · Microsoft accounted for about 62% of CoreWeave's 2024 revenue as its largest AI-compute customer. source: sec.gov
  • Credo Technology — supplier · Microsoft is a primary customer for Credo's active electrical cables used in AI data centers. source: cnbc.com
  • IREN — supplier · IREN signed a five-year, ~$9.7 billion contract to provide Microsoft with NVIDIA GB300 GPU cloud capacity. source: globenewswire.com
  • Lambda — supplier · Lambda has a multibillion-dollar agreement to deploy tens of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs as AI cloud capacity for Microsoft. source: techcrunch.com
  • Anthropic — partner · Microsoft agreed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic and make Claude available on Azure as Anthropic committed $30 billion of Azure compute. source: blogs.microsoft.com
  • C3.ai — partner · C3 AI and Microsoft formed a strategic alliance making Azure the preferred cloud for C3 AI applications and C3 AI a preferred AI-app provider on Azure. source: c3.ai
  • Cloudflare — partner · Cloudflare partnered with Microsoft (and Hugging Face) to bring machine-learning models to its edge network. source: mpost.io
  • d-Matrix — portfolio company · Microsoft's venture arm M12 is an investor in d-Matrix, participating in its funding rounds including the Series C. source: d-matrix.ai
  • Mistral AI — partner · Microsoft made a roughly €15 million investment in Mistral AI and hosts its models on Azure. source: techcrunch.com
  • Nebius Group — supplier · Nebius signed a five-year deal to supply Microsoft with dedicated GPU cloud capacity worth at least $17.4 billion. source: redmondmag.com
  • NetApp — partner · Azure NetApp Files is a Microsoft Azure first-party storage service jointly engineered with NetApp and sold/supported by Microsoft. source: learn.microsoft.com
  • Wiwynn — supplier · Wiwynn supplies hyperscale cloud servers to Microsoft, one of its largest customers, with over 90% of revenue from hyperscalers. source: en.wikipedia.org
  • OpenAI — supplier · 50% dependency editorial estimate · OpenAI's models power Microsoft Copilot across Microsoft 365, GitHub and Bing. source: blogs.microsoft.com
  • NVIDIA — supplier · 60% dependency editorial estimate · Microsoft is among NVIDIA's largest customers, deploying its GPUs across Azure AI infrastructure; NVIDIA's 10-K discloses significant revenue concentration in large cloud providers. source: sec.gov
  • OpenAI — portfolio company · Microsoft has invested approximately $13B in OpenAI across 2019-2023 and holds economic interests in its capped-profit entity. source: blogs.microsoft.com
  • OpenAI — customer · 50% dependency editorial estimate · Azure has been OpenAI's primary compute provider since 2019; OpenAI diversified to additional providers from 2025 while Azure remains a major share. source: blogs.microsoft.com
  • Arista Networks — supplier · 40% dependency editorial estimate · Arista's 10-K discloses Microsoft as a >10% customer; Arista switches form part of Azure's AI data-center network fabric. source: sec.gov

Options positioning

delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-10-29
  • Call vs put volume: 351,269 calls · 190,977 puts — tilt +29.6% toward calls
  • Vol/OI turnover: 1.25×
  • Premium ($ notional proxy): $135.6M calls · $36.1M puts — tilt +58.0% toward calls
  • OTM tilt: +16.5% toward OTM calls
  • IV skew (put − call): +8.2%