AI-adopting incumbents · Industry Index 11 (rank #106) ·
price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-08-05 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Global media and entertainment company (NYSE: DIS) spanning Disney+, Hulu and ESPN streaming, film studios, and theme parks; its AI-industry role is production/VFX tooling, streaming personalization, and consumer-scale inference on public cloud.
Industry exposure 0.1 (Core business is media networks, streaming, studios and parks; AI is an enabler in content production/VFX, personalization on Disney+, and parks robotics, not a revenue line.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:earnings in 20 days
20 small flags (under $100000 premium) — none large enough to highlight.
latest session: 0.6× its 13-day baseline
71% calls / 29% puts (by premium)
Price momentum set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a positive tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.16.
A mildly-positive score, but weak agreement — so the engine returns a no-conviction Neutral rather than overclaim. This is the system refusing to force a call it doesn’t have.
Disney's moat is a century of franchise IP monetized through mutually reinforcing windows that competitors cannot assemble: the FY2025 10-K describes a library of ~5,300 live-action and 460 animated film titles built over approximately 100 years, distributed through streaming (Disney+ ~132M and Hulu ~64M paid subscribers as of 2025-09-27), linear networks, theatrical release and physical parks. The parks flywheel is the clearest expression: TEA's 2024 Theme Index (published 2025-10-24) again ranked Disney Experiences the top theme park operator worldwide, with Magic Kingdom the most-visited park for the 19th straight year. The studio led the 2025 global box office with $6.58B — its ninth #1 finish in a decade — driven by its own franchises (Zootopia 2 $1.48B, Lilo & Stitch $1.04B, Avatar: Fire and Ash) per Screen Daily (2026-01-04). The challenged edges are real: in Nielsen's Media Distributor Gauge for April 2026 Disney held 10.3% of total US TV viewing — second to YouTube's 13.4%, ahead of Netflix's 7.8% — and the 10-K flags MVPD consolidation pressure on linear carriage terms. But the Q3 FY26 report (2026-08-05) showed the model inflecting: revenue +7% to $25.25B, Experiences revenue +10% to $9.97B with domestic parks operating income +27%, and streaming operating margin expanding from 6.6% to 12.9% year over year.
Rating: wide
FY2025 10-K: a content library spanning approximately 100 years of production history — roughly 5,300 live-action film titles, 460 animated film titles plus deep episodic series holdings — feeds every segment (streaming, parks, consumer products, theatrical), and the physical parks portfolio (Walt Disney World, Disneyland, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland 48%, Shanghai Disney Resort 43%, Disney Cruise Line) is not replicable at comparable scale (sec.gov dis-20250927.htm, FY ended 2025-09-27).
Type: intangibles ip
The moat is franchise IP and brands: the FY2025 10-K lists Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars and National Geographic as the top-level pillars of Disney+, and Mickey and Friends, Star Wars, Spider-Man, Disney Princess, Frozen, Avengers and Toy Story among the major licensed properties; the same IP is monetized across theatrical, streaming, parks and licensing windows (sec.gov dis-20250927.htm).
Leadership: co leader
Clear leader in its two profit engines — TEA's 2024 Theme Index ranks Disney Experiences the top park operator worldwide with Magic Kingdom #1 for 19 straight years (laughingplace.com, 2025-10-24), and the studio topped the 2025 global box office at $6.58B (Screen Daily, 2026-01-04) — but in total video Disney is second: Nielsen's April 2026 Media Distributor Gauge puts Disney at 10.3% of US TV viewing vs YouTube's 13.4% (MediaPost, 2026-06-25). Co-leader is the honest company-level band.
Pricing power: strong
Q3 FY26 (quarter ended June 2026, reported 2026-08-05): domestic Parks & Experiences operating income rose 27% on 11% revenue growth, and streaming operating margin expanded from 6.6% to 12.9% on 11% subscription revenue growth — margin expansion well ahead of volume in both engines (thedesk.net earnings summary). Counterweight: the FY2025 10-K notes MVPD consolidation may pressure linear carriage terms, so pricing power is concentrated in parks and DTC, not linear.
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: AI-adopting incumbents
Content/IP owner at the top of the entertainment value chain: produces and owns franchise IP (Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, 80%-owned ESPN), distributes it through owned channels (parks, Disney+, Hulu, ESPN DTC, ABC, theatrical), licenses it downstream to consumer-products makers and retailers, and is a major upstream buyer of sports rights (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football) — including the pending NFL Transaction exchanging a 10% ESPN stake for NFL Network assets (FY2025 10-K, sec.gov dis-20250927.htm).
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.35 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score -0.19, conviction 6).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| Film studios · film production & distribution Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, 20th Century, Searchlight; ~1,100 live-action and ~100 animated features released cumulatively through FY2025, with roughly 20 releases planned for FY2026 per the 10-K. | Leader Disney topped the 2025 global box office with $6.58B ($2.49B domestic, $4.08B international) — its ninth #1 studio finish in the past decade — ahead of Warner Bros ($4.4B) and Universal ($3.89B) (Screen Daily, 2026-01-04). | Deep Leadership rests on owned franchise IP rather than one-off hits: the top 2025 grossers were Disney franchise films (Zootopia 2 $1.48B, Lilo & Stitch $1.04B, Avatar: Fire and Ash $833M) per Screen Daily, and the FY2025 10-K states the company generally holds full production and distribution rights to its IP (Spider-Man film rights at Sony the noted exception). |
| Linear networks & ESPN channels · broadcast & cable television ABC, eight owned TV stations, Disney Channel, FX, National Geographic, plus 80%-owned ESPN's channel suite; the FY2025 10-K's sports-rights portfolio spans NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football and more, and the pending NFL Transaction would trade a 10% ESPN stake for NFL Network assets. | Unknown No ranked market-share source read; the FY2025 10-K gives reach only — ESPN and ESPN2 each in 61M homes (Nielsen Media Research, September 2025) and the owned stations reaching approximately 20% of US TV households — so the band abstains rather than infers a rank. | Moderate Long-term exclusive sports rights (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, College Football Playoff per the FY2025 10-K) are a genuine barrier, but the same 10-K warns that MVPD consolidation and the prevalence of streaming may erode carriage terms — a structurally declining distribution base. |
| Streaming (Disney+ / Hulu / ESPN DTC) · streaming video Disney+ (~132M paid subscribers) and Hulu (~64M) as of 2025-09-27 per the FY2025 10-K, plus the ESPN Select/Unlimited DTC plans launched August 2025; sold individually and in bundles. Disney stopped disclosing quarterly subscriber counts in FY2026. | Top 3 Nielsen's Media Distributor Gauge for April 2026: Disney held 10.3% of total US TV viewing — #2 among media distributors behind YouTube (13.4%) and ahead of Netflix (7.8%) (MediaPost, 2026-06-25). This measures all Disney viewing on TV screens, not streaming-only share. | Moderate The exclusive ~100-year franchise library (FY2025 10-K: ~5,300 live-action and 460 animated titles) is a real content barrier, but consumer switching costs in SVOD are low and the 10-K itself lists other DTC streaming services, social media and video games as direct competitors for attention. |
| Theme parks & experiences · theme parks & resorts Walt Disney World, Disneyland Resort, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland (48% stake), Shanghai Disney Resort (43% stake), Disney Cruise Line and Disney Vacation Club; the segment's Q3 FY26 revenue was $9.97B, +10% year over year. | Leader TEA's 2024 Theme Index (published 2025-10-24) names Disney Experiences the top theme park operator worldwide; Magic Kingdom has been the most-visited theme park worldwide and in North America for the last 19 years; the top-25 parks drew almost 246 million combined visits, +2.4% in 2024. | Deep Decades of accumulated, IP-themed physical resort infrastructure across four continents (FY2025 10-K lists the six resort complexes plus a cruise line and vacation club, sec.gov dis-20250927.htm); no competitor operates parks tied to a comparable franchise library. |
These charts plot The Walt Disney Company's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-08-05. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, revenue grew 70% to $94.4B (FY2016→FY2025); net income at $12.4B in FY2025.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 1.69 (USD 1.56–USD 1.93) · 23 | USD 25.2B (USD 24.4B–USD 26.3B) · 23 | +12% |
| FY 2026 | USD 6.93 (USD 6.79–USD 7.19) · 29 | USD 101.6B (USD 100.1B–USD 102.7B) · 28 | +8% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-11-17.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 136,882,993 | $13.2B | 1,428,196 | 0.2% | 7.93% |
| State Street Passive / index | 83,495,399 | $8.1B | -207,504 | 0.2% | 4.84% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 25,391,170 | $2.4B | 3,437,810 | 0.1% | 1.47% |
| H&H International Investment (Duan Yongping) Guru | 1,706,600 | $164.3M | 194,800 | 0.9% | 0.10% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 49,331 | $4.7M | 25,471 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
About Netflix · 2026-10-15 · personnel
Netflix said Peter Rice will join as Chief Content Officer effective October 26, replacing Bela Bajaria, who is leaving after nearly 10 years. Rice was most recently Chairman of Walt Disney Television and Chairman of General Entertainment for The Walt Disney Company.
CNBC · 2026-10-13 · partnership
Character.ai filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Delaware, citing high development costs and potential litigation-related liabilities, and plans a court-supervised sale. Ahead of the filing it agreed for Disney to serve as stalking-horse bidder to license some of its intellectual property for $20 million, as well as provide transition services through former employees Disney hired.
TheStreet · 2026-08-09 · regulation
The Central Florida Tourism Oversight District's Comprehensive Plan 2045 update allows development of 'one major and two minor theme parks' at Disney World, noting 'there are no plans under review' and that roughly 850 acres would be required — a land-use clearance, not a park announcement.
The Daily Upside · 2026-08-06 · partnership
Disney announced a content-sharing partnership with TikTok under which creators gain legal access to Disney assets such as characters and movie scenes, and Disney will showcase 'thoughtfully curated' TikTok content on Disney+ Verts when creators opt in.
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Walt Disney (DIS) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Disney's theme parks division lays off at least 100 employees
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: DIS · VSNT or DIS: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Walt Disney Earnings Preview: What to Expect
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Walt Disney (DIS) Bids For Character.AI, Is The 13% Discount Enough?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: DIS · The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Disney Stock Rose 10 Sessions in a Row While Bidding $20 Million for Character.AI’s Technology. Here’s Where It Could Go by 2030
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Skydance Sinks 6% Despite Citi Buy Call and Elon Musk’s Reported $1B Investment; Roku and Disney Dip
2026-10-22 CNBC Top News · Disney’s multiplatform Super Bowl plan frustrates ABC affiliates
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Disney seeks to buy Character AI assets in Chapter 11 bankruptcy
2026-10-14 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Disney (DIS): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Epic Games’ Disney Game Faces Delays and An AI Overhaul After $1.5 Billion Investment
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Are You Overpaying For Disney Stock Versus Its Rivals?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: DIS · TEGNA and Disney Entertainment Television Renew ABC Affiliation Agreements in 13 Markets
2026-10-07 PR Newswire Tech · Disney Believe to Debut World's First "Encanto" Musical, All-New "Frozen" Family Feast and More in December 2027
2026-10-07 CNBC Top News · Disney+ to stream upcoming Super Bowl
2026-10-05 Yahoo Finance: NVDA · Could Disney End Up Being the Next Nike?
2026-10-02 PR Newswire Tech · DISNEY BRINGS THE MAGIC OF DISNEY'S LAKESHORE LODGE TO NEW YORK CITY
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | earnings | The Walt Disney Company earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — estimated from EDGAR filing cadence (last periodic filing + 91/365 days); confirm via IR. estimated | Medium |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | The Walt Disney Company earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · +2.9% |
| 2026-05-06 | The Walt Disney Company earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · +0.6% |
