AI-adopting incumbents · Industry Index 14 (rank #61) ·
price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-07-17 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Netflix is the world's largest subscription streaming service (NASDAQ: NFLX); its AI-industry role is large-scale recommendation/personalization ML, generative-AI production tooling, and one of the biggest consumer-scale inference workloads running on public cloud.
Industry exposure 0.2 (Core business is subscription streaming; AI is an enabler — the recommendation and personalization systems, AI-assisted production/VFX tooling, and ad-tech — not a revenue line of its own.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) in 1 day
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | $64 CALL | 50 | sell-side | +2,736 | 13,620 | 1.6× | flat tape |
| 2026-10-28 | $62 CALL | 47 | sell-side | +424 | 21,945 | 8.9× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $64 CALL | 38 | mid-market · no side | +3,349 | 4,291 | 0.8× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $59 CALL | 37 | mid-market · no side | +46 | 651 | 9.0× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $65 CALL | 37 | mid-market · no side | +2,113 | 4,204 | 0.9× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $63 CALL | 37 | sell-side | +6,255 | 24,799 | 2.8× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $62 CALL | 34 | buy-side | +545 | 4,062 | 5.4× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $61 CALL | 34 | sell-side | +106 | 4,194 | 3.0× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $62 CALL | 32 | sell-side | +81 | 3,926 | 36.4× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $65 CALL | 31 | mid-market · no side | +1,342 | 5,733 | 1.2× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $63 CALL | 29 | mid-market · no side | +1,299 | 4,642 | 2.3× |
9 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 0.8× its 13-day baseline
45% calls / 55% puts (by premium)
News set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a negative tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; news dissented. Directional agreement 0.75.
A mildly-negative score, but weak agreement — so the engine returns a no-conviction Neutral rather than overclaim. This is the system refusing to force a call it doesn’t have.
Netflix's advantage is a self-reinforcing scale loop rather than lock-in: the largest paid streaming audience funds the largest content slate, which in turn wins what the 10-K calls 'moments of truth' against every other use of leisure time. The FY2025 10-K is candid that switching costs are low (members can change plans at any time) and that competition spans linear TV, rival streamers, user-generated platforms, gaming and piracy — so the moat is narrow, not wide. What sustains it now is monetization breadth on top of scale: per the Q2 2026 letter, repeated price increases keep landing 'consistent with prior changes and our expectations,' the ads business is on track to roughly double to ~$3B in 2026, live events drove six of the top 10 member sign-up days of the last five years on just over 5% of content spend, and GenAI workflows (used in roughly 300 titles in 2026) are lowering production cost. Nielsen's May 2026 Gauge places Netflix at 8.0% of total US TV time — the largest subscription streamer, though YouTube leads all distributors at 13.8% — which frames the real long-run contest: attention against free, user-generated video, not just against other paid streamers.
Rating: narrow
FY2025 10-K (Item 1, Competition; filed 2026-01-23) calls the entertainment-video market 'intensely competitive and subject to rapid change,' with rivals holding exclusive content rights, 'large content libraries, and significant financial, marketing and other resources' and low member switching friction (members 'can change their plans at any time'). The offsetting durable advantage is monetized scale: the Q2 2026 shareholder letter (2026-07-16) guides 2026 revenue to $51.0-$51.4B at a 31.5% operating margin for an audience 'approaching 1B people' — a content budget and margin structure no pure-play streaming rival matches.
Type: cost scale
Content and technology spend is amortized across the industry's largest paid streaming membership base: the Q2 2026 shareholder letter (2026-07-16) reports members watched 97B+ hours in H1 2026 for an audience approaching 1B people, with Q2 operating margin of 33% — scale that lets Netflix outspend rivals on programming per subscriber dollar. A secondary intangibles layer sits on top: the FY2025 10-K (Item 1) says Netflix regards its copyrights, trademarks and the original content it produces as 'important to our success.'
Leadership: clear leader
Nielsen's Media Distributor Gauge for May 2026 (published 2026-07-28): Netflix held 8.0% of total US TV watch-time, the largest of any subscription streamer (Amazon Prime Video 4.5%, Roku Channel 3.1%, Paramount 2.3%); YouTube — an ad-supported, largely user-generated platform — led all distributors at 13.8%.
Pricing power: strong
Q2 2026 shareholder letter (2026-07-16): H1 2026 price changes 'in markets like the US, Mexico and Spain, have gone well with the impact consistent with prior price changes and our expectations,' and 2026 revenue growth of 13%-14% is guided as 'driven by growth in memberships and pricing' — repeated increases without guided membership damage.
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: AI-adopting incumbents
Consumer-facing distributor at the end of the entertainment supply chain: the FY2025 10-K (Item 1) says revenues are 'primarily derived from monthly membership fees,' and Netflix competes two ways — downstream for viewers' leisure time and upstream 'against entertainment video providers and content producers in obtaining content,' both licensed and original; the ads tier adds a second monetization rail on the same distribution asset.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.24 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score -0.06, conviction 0).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| Advertising (ad-supported tier) · Streaming advertising Lower-priced ad-supported plan plus the Netflix Ads Suite; programmatic access being extended to Pause Ads and live inventory. | Challenger Q2 2026 shareholder letter (2026-07-16): ads revenue on track to roughly double to approximately $3B in 2026 — material and fast-growing, but a challenger's scale next to incumbent TV/digital ad platforms and only ~6% of Netflix's own guided 2026 revenue. | Moderate The letter cites 'highly engaged and attentive audiences,' advanced-stage US upfront negotiations, and AI-powered tools across the ad lifecycle; but the FY2025 10-K (Risk Factors) concedes 'limited experience and operating history offering advertising' and reliance on third-party service providers. |
| Games · Video games Mobile and cloud-based TV games included with membership, including kids titles via the Netflix Playground app. | Niche Q2 2026 shareholder letter (2026-07-16): cloud TV games are 'gaining traction... while off a small base' — Netflix's own framing; kids mobile games engagement up 600% YoY and Playground daily players up 3x since April 2026, but no market-share claim is made. | Low FY2025 10-K (Item 1, Competition) lists established 'video gaming providers' among direct competitors; Netflix's lever is bundled distribution to its existing membership rather than any stated gaming-specific advantage. |
| Live events and sports · Live programming Live event slate including an expanded NFL agreement (week-one, Thanksgiving Eve, Christmas Gameday), MLB events, WWE, the Women's World Cup and marquee boxing. | Niche Q2 2026 shareholder letter (2026-07-16): live programming is expected to be just over 5% of 2026 content spend and only ~1% of view hours — small within Netflix and far below legacy sports-rights holders — yet it drove six of the top 10 new-member sign-up days of the last five years. | Moderate Barriers rest on multi-year exclusive rights contracts: the letter cites an expanded NFL agreement securing 'a premium slate of games' through Q1 2027, plus WWE and Women's World Cup rights — contractual exclusivity, not structural advantage. |
| Subscription streaming · Consumer subscription video Core paid streaming service — TV series, films and live programming across genres and languages, on a range of plans including the ad-supported tier. | Leader Nielsen Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 (published 2026-07-28): Netflix at 8.0% of total US TV watch-time is the largest subscription streaming distributor (Prime Video 4.5%); only YouTube, an ad-supported UGC platform, is larger at 13.8%. | Deep Scale is the barrier: Q2 2026 shareholder letter (2026-07-16) cites 97B+ view hours in H1 2026 from an audience approaching 1B people, funding a global originals slate (non-English content over a third of viewing) that a challenger would need years of loss-making content spend to replicate. |
These charts plot Netflix's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-07-17. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at $11.0B in FY2025.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Dec 2026 | USD 0.67 (USD 0.66–USD 0.70) · 30 | USD 13.4B (USD 13.4B–USD 13.5B) · 34 | +12% |
| FY 2026 | USD 3.58 (USD 3.51–USD 3.64) · 35 | USD 51.1B (USD 51.0B–USD 51.2B) · 39 | +13% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2027-01-19.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 348,770,600 | $24.9B | 2,522,671 | 0.4% | 8.38% |
| State Street Passive / index | 180,129,582 | $12.9B | 8,474,820 | 0.4% | 4.33% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 135,937,268 | $9.7B | -68,713,615 | 0.4% | 3.26% |
| Renaissance Technologies Guru | 6,787,884 | $484.7M | 6,785,423 | 0.7% | 0.16% |
| Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont) Guru | 4,710,420 | $336.3M | -2,183,140 | 0.7% | 0.11% |
| ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood) Guru | 224,871 | $16.1M | 7,450 | 0.1% | 0.01% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
About Netflix · 2026-10-15 · personnel
Netflix said Peter Rice will join as Chief Content Officer effective October 26, replacing Bela Bajaria, who is leaving after nearly 10 years. Rice was most recently Chairman of Walt Disney Television and Chairman of General Entertainment for The Walt Disney Company.
CNBC · 2026-10-14 · personnel
Netflix will lay off roughly 6% of its employees, or roughly 1,000 workers, largely in its product, tech, legal and HR teams, according to a memo from co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters obtained by CNBC. The memo said Netflix remains on track to deliver its full year forecast; the company reports quarterly earnings on Oct. 20.
About Netflix · 2026-10-13 · partnership
Netflix secured exclusive rights in Spain and Andorra to the FIFA World Cup 2030, covering all 104 matches live. One match per matchday will be free in Spain, and a package including every Spain match, both semi-finals and the final will also be made available on a national free-to-air broadcaster.
Los Angeles Times · 2026-10-09 · personnel
Netflix plans a substantial round of layoffs expected to affect 5% of its workforce, which could be 800 employees, including the creative team working on features, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing people familiar with the cuts. The cuts are believed to be the company's biggest since 2022; Netflix declined to comment.
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: MSFT · Why Netflix reportedly walked away from Xbox licensing deal
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Netflix's Advertising Business Expands Rapidly: Can Momentum Continue?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Why Did NFLX, OPEN, WHR Stocks Tumble To 52-Week Lows Today?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · What Does Netflix (NFLX) Leadership Shakeup Mean For Its Streaming Future?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · The Netflix layoffs reveal what corporate America is getting wrong
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Why Netflix stock just can't catch a break after earnings
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: DIS · What Should Netflix Stock Investors Be Watching Now?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Netflix Stock Falls on Report That Viewers Watch Less. Why Wall Street Is Worried.
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Congressman Could Be Down 2.65x Annual Salary by Betting on Netflix Stock: Here’s the Math
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Netflix Price Prediction: Where the Stock Goes After a Year of Doubts
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Netflix Stock: Should You Buy the Post-Earnings Dip?
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Netflix Sinks 3% as Bloomberg Report Shows Users Watching Less: “We Know That We Can Do Better”
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Chamath: Netflix Is “a Dormant Subscription,” and $14B of Debt Built Its Library
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters Just Said "We Know That We Can Do Better" When It Comes to U.S. Engagement. Should Investors Be Worried?
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Why Netflix (NFLX) International Revenue Trends Deserve Your Attention
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NFLX · Netflix Just Posted a Record Margin. So Why Is Wall Street Panicking?
2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Netflix Is Now Down 29% This Year: Is NFLX Stock Hopeless or Ready for a Rebound?
2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Can Netflix Stock Hold Margin Gains as Content Spending Keeps Growing?
2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance: DIS · Can Netflix Stock Fall 50%?
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-20 | earnings | Netflix earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — estimated from EDGAR filing cadence (last periodic filing + 91/365 days); confirm via IR. estimated | Medium |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Netflix earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · Rev miss · -5.3% |
| 2026-07-16 | Netflix earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · -7.3% |
