cloud & hyperscalers · Industry Index 14 (rank #66) · $257.81 (-0.20%) · mkt cap $243.7B
ⓘ Data freshness
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-07-23 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
IBM provides hybrid-cloud software, consulting, mainframe systems, and the watsonx enterprise AI platform.
Industry exposure 0.3 (watsonx, hybrid cloud, and AI consulting tie a meaningful minority of IBM to AI demand, but consulting, mainframes, and software still dominate revenue.)
Signal
signal: as of 2026-10-13
Short (~2 weeks)
28%
Bullish
Conviction 28
▲News— Recent sentiment 0.40 vs 120d baseline -1.00 across 1 story.[news]
Datadog — competitor · Datadog names IBM among the diversified technology and systems management vendors it competes with in on-premise infrastructure monitoring. source: sec.gov
Anthropic — partner · IBM partnered with Anthropic to integrate Claude into IBM's enterprise software, starting with its AI-first IDE. source: newsroom.ibm.com
Oracle — competitor · IBM competes with Oracle in enterprise software, databases, cloud, and AI, a rivalry IBM identifies among its competitors. source: sec.gov
Options positioning
delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-10-30
Call vs put volume: 30,096 calls · 11,354 puts — tilt +45.2% toward calls
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
no vote
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
no vote
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
no vote
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.38.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
+0.375
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.38
→
Conviction
0.28
A clear bullish score; conviction 0.28 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-13 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26
Signal history
Moat
moat: latest change 2026-02-24
IBM's moat rests on deep enterprise incumbency — sticky installed-base relationships across hybrid cloud (Red Hat), enterprise software, and mission-critical infrastructure, plus brand and a large patent base. But its own FY2025 10-K frames "a highly competitive environment" with "hundreds of competitors" and says IBM is "regularly exposed to new competitors" as it pursues hybrid cloud and AI, so the moat is durable but narrow and contested in the AI/cloud growth arena.
IBM's FY2025 10-K describes "a highly competitive environment" with "hundreds of competitors" and says IBM is "regularly exposed to new competitors" as it executes its hybrid-cloud/AI strategy, while differentiating through "incumbency with enterprises" and "client relationships and trust" — a real but narrow moat, not a wide one.
The 10-K roots IBM's differentiation in "incumbency with enterprises" and "client relationships and trust" — installed-base lock-in across its hybrid-cloud platform (Red Hat) and enterprise software and infrastructure raises switching costs.
An enterprise incumbent that differentiates via "incumbency with enterprises" but is "regularly exposed to new competitors" in its hybrid-cloud/AI push (FY2025 10-K) — a follower in the current AI cycle rather than its leader.
Gross margin is high and rising (54.9% FY2021 to 58.2% FY2025) on a software-mix shift, but "price" is a principal method of competition per the 10-K and consulting/infrastructure remain price-competitive.
A hybrid-cloud platform, enterprise-AI (watsonx), and consulting provider to large enterprises — a software/cloud layer of the AI stack.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
Signal contribution editorial prior
The moat prior voted +0.06 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is bearish (score -0.38, conviction 49).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Product lineup
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
Product
Market share
Technical barrier
Consulting · IT & business consulting
IBM's technology and business-transformation consulting services.
Top 3
A large global consulting provider leveraging IBM's "deep expertise in technology, industries and business processes" per the 10-K.
Low
Relationship- and talent-based with "price" a principal method of competition; low structural switching costs in a fragmented services market (10-K).
IBM's central hybrid-cloud and AI software segment, including Red Hat, automation, data & AI (watsonx), and transaction processing.
Top 3
A major enterprise hybrid-cloud/AI software vendor; the 10-K makes "hybrid cloud and AI" its core strategy and differentiates via "incumbency with enterprises," competing against "hundreds of competitors."
Moderate
Installed-base incumbency and client relationships raise switching costs, but the 10-K says IBM is "regularly exposed to new competitors."
What you're looking at
These charts plot IBM's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-07-23. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at $10.6B in FY2025.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
Period
EPS (est.)
Revenue (est.)
YoY
Q/E Dec 2026
USD 4.63 (USD 4.50–USD 4.78) · 19
USD 20.4B (USD 20.1B–USD 20.7B) · 17
+4%
FY 2026
USD 12.42 (USD 12.30–USD 12.57) · 23
USD 70.6B (USD 70.0B–USD 70.9B) · 23
+4%
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Our model leans Bearish on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Income statement
Cash flow & liquidity
Balance sheet
Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.
Passive index filers are not gurus. Their 13F changes are index flows, and they are excluded from TradingPilot’s smart-money signal.
Quant caveat. A quant filer’s 13F (e.g. Renaissance) is a long-only quarter-end snapshot and does NOT reflect its actual high-turnover, short-horizon strategy.
Guru pages and holdings never feed a signal (weightless).
IBM and Siemens announced research collaboration to advance IBM's nanostack architecture, combining IBM's semiconductor device work with Siemens' EDA, process simulation, lithography optimization and manufacturing software for generations beyond the current 7 angstrom node. IBM says nanostack fits nearly 100 billion transistors in a space the size of a fingernail at that node.
IBM said it has been selected for Stage C, the third phase of DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, in which DARPA's independent verification and validation team will test companies' quantum hardware. IBM said it expects to deliver its first fault-tolerant quantum system in 2029.
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
Upcoming
Date
Type
Event
Impact
2027-01-21
earnings
IBM earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — estimated from EDGAR filing cadence (last periodic filing + 91/365 days); confirm via IR. estimated
