cloud & hyperscalers · Industry Index 22 (rank #17) ·
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-09-25 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Oracle is an enterprise software and database company whose Oracle Cloud Infrastructure has become a major provider of AI training and inference capacity.
Industry exposure 0.6 (Oracle has pivoted OCI heavily toward AI, signing giant GPU-cloud contracts (e.g. OpenAI/Stargate) that now drive a majority of its bookings and backlog growth.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:matches: SambaNova and Oracle plan SN50 inference capa…
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $135 CALL | 69 | sell-side | +66 | 5,307 | 11.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $122 PUT | 64 | buy-side | +29 | 3,782 | 4.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $125 PUT | 57 | mid-market · no side | +10 | 3,311 | 3.7× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $140 CALL | 56 | sell-side | +7,094 | 10,788 | 1.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $135 CALL | 55 | sell-side | -43 | 5,476 | 3.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $121 PUT | 53 | sell-side | +15 | 1,616 | 2.6× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $136 CALL | 52 | mid-market · no side | +102 | 940 | 1.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $128 PUT | 49 | buy-side | +143 | 1,544 | 1.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $130 PUT | 48 | sell-side | +468 | 12,985 | 5.5× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $141 CALL | 48 | sell-side | +389 | 1,739 | 1.4× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $145 CALL | 42 | buy-side | +7,468 | 5,733 | 0.5× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $125 PUT | 41 | buy-side | +520 | 2,251 | 0.5× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $134 CALL | 41 | sell-side | -102 | 800 | 2.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $127 PUT | 40 | buy-side | +204 | 1,061 | 0.7× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $138 CALL | 40 | buy-side | +580 | 852 | 0.7× |
5 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 1.2× its 13-day baseline
34% calls / 66% puts (by premium)
News carried this call — it supplied almost the entire lean; the other voters nearly net out.
Most voters leaned one way; news dissented. Directional agreement 0.69.
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.50 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
Oracle pairs the deepest switching-cost franchise in enterprise software — the #1-ranked database (DB-Engines, August 2026) plus Fusion/NetSuite back-office suites, with support attach near-universal per the FY2026 10-K — with a late but explosive push into AI cloud infrastructure: Q4 FY2026 IaaS revenue grew 93% to $5.8B and RPO reached $638B (up 363% YoY), mostly large-scale AI contracts (press release, June 10, 2026). The two reinforce each other via multicloud — Oracle Multicloud AI Database grew 404% in Q4 running inside rival clouds. The offsets: in cloud infrastructure Oracle is still a ~4%-share challenger behind AWS/Microsoft/Google (Synergy Q2 2026 data via The Register), the AI buildout drove FY2026 free cash flow to negative $23.7B, and the Cerner-based Oracle Health business has lost US hospital share for three straight years (KLAS 2026).
Rating: wide
Oracle's FY2026 10-K (fiscal year ended May 31, 2026) describes an installed base in which "substantially all customers opt to purchase software support contracts when they purchase an Oracle software license"; that entrenchment shows up externally as the #1 DB-Engines database ranking (August 2026, first of 435 systems) and $638B of contracted Remaining Performance Obligations at Q4 FY2026 (press release, June 10, 2026) — a durable, multi-decade lock on mission-critical enterprise data layers.
Type: switching costs
The core moat is the cost of moving mission-critical databases and back-office suites: the FY2026 10-K notes substantially all license customers attach support contracts and that Oracle's Multicloud Database offerings run Oracle AI Database inside other hyperscalers' clouds — monetizing the installed base even when the customer's infrastructure leaves; the KLAS 2026 EHR report shows the same dynamic in health IT, where roughly a third of Oracle Health customers want to leave but feel unable to do so.
Leadership: co leader
Split by line: clear leader in database (DB-Engines August 2026 ranks Oracle #1 and Oracle-owned MySQL #2 of 435 systems); one of the largest enterprise-application vendors ($15.9B FY2026 SaaS revenue, competing with SAP, Salesforce, Workday and Microsoft per the FY2026 10-K); but in cloud infrastructure a ~4%-share fast-growing challenger behind Amazon (28%), Microsoft (20%) and Google (15%) per Synergy Q2 2026 data (The Register, 2026-08-01), and #2 in US acute-care EHR behind Epic (KLAS 2026).
Pricing power: moderate
Strong in the installed base — the FY2026 10-K states substantially all license customers purchase support contracts, a recurring stream customers rarely drop — but the same 10-K lists "total cost of ownership" first among key competitive factors and describes intense competition across every segment; AI-infrastructure deals are won against hyperscalers and neoclouds, and Q4 FY2026 SaaS grew a moderate 10% versus 93% for IaaS (press release, June 10, 2026).
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: cloud & hyperscalers
Supply-chain role in AI: OCI sells GPU compute for AI training and inference — the Q4 FY2026 press release attributes most of the $85B sequential RPO increase to large-scale AI contracts (some with customer-prepaid or customer-supplied GPUs totaling $75B) and guides FY2027 total revenue to $90B — making Oracle a primary capacity supplier to AI model builders.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.30 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is bullish (score 0.32, conviction 21).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle AI Database (incl. Autonomous & Multicloud) · Database management systems Flagship relational/multi-model DBMS plus Oracle Autonomous AI Database and Multicloud Database offerings that run inside AWS, Azure and Google clouds; MySQL/HeatWave for open-source workloads (FY2026 10-K). | Leader DB-Engines ranking, August 2026: Oracle is the #1 database management system of 435 ranked (score 1123), with Oracle-owned MySQL at #2 — positions both have held for years. | Deep Mission-critical data workloads carry classic deep switching costs: the FY2026 10-K states substantially all license customers attach support contracts, and the Multicloud Database offerings extend the lock by running Oracle AI Database inside rival hyperscalers' clouds. |
| Oracle Cloud Applications (Fusion & NetSuite SaaS) · Enterprise SaaS applications Fusion Cloud ERP/EPM/SCM, HCM and CX suites for enterprises plus the NetSuite suite for small/mid-size organizations, built on a common data model atop OCI (FY2026 10-K). | Top 3 No independent share tracker cited; basis is scale and the competitive set — FY2026 SaaS revenue was $15.9B, up 11% (press release, June 10, 2026), and the FY2026 10-K positions OCA against SAP, Salesforce, Workday and Microsoft, describing the suite as an industry-leading business innovation platform (issuer's own characterization). | Deep ERP/HCM are core-of-business systems: the FY2026 10-K describes a common data model spanning finance, HR, supply chain and CX that makes Fusion ERP "foundational" to adopting the rest of the suite — replacing an entire back office is a rare, multi-year event. |
| Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) · Cloud / AI infrastructure (IaaS) GPU-based AI infrastructure, compute, storage, networking and cloud-native services, delivered via public regions plus Cloud@Customer, Dedicated Region and Sovereign Cloud deployment options (FY2026 10-K). | Challenger Synergy Research Q2 2026 data (via The Register, 2026-08-01): Oracle holds ~4% of cloud-infrastructure spend versus Amazon 28%, Microsoft 20%, Google 15%, but is named among the fastest-growing tier-two providers; Oracle's own Q4 FY2026 IaaS revenue grew 93% YoY to $5.8B. | Moderate Data-center capital intensity and $638B of contracted RPO (Q4 FY2026 press release) protect the booked business, but the AI-infrastructure segment itself is contested — Synergy's Q2 2026 fast-grower list also includes CoreWeave, OpenAI, Crusoe, Nebius, Anthropic and Nscale — and FY2026 free cash flow was negative $23.7B funding the buildout. |
| Oracle Health (Cerner) · Healthcare IT / EHR Hospital and clinic patient-care management (EHR) suite from the Cerner acquisition; a rebuilt AI version is expected to push Oracle Health growth to double digits in FY2027 (Q4 FY2026 press release). | Top 3 KLAS US Acute Care EHR Market Share 2026 (via healthsystemcio.com, 2026-05-14): Oracle Health is #2 at 21.9% of US acute-care hospitals and 20.4% of beds, behind Epic (43.7% / 56.9%) and ahead of Meditech (14.7% / 12.5%). | Moderate EHR switching costs are real — KLAS finds roughly a third of Oracle Health customers want to leave but feel unable to do so — yet they are being breached: 2025 was the third straight year of the largest net losses of any tracked vendor (down 56 hospitals and 14,676 beds; 173 hospitals lost since 2021, mostly to Epic). |
These charts plot Oracle's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-09-25. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at $17.0B in FY2026.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Nov 2026 | USD 1.89 (USD 1.81–USD 2.04) · 33 | USD 21.3B (USD 21.2B–USD 21.5B) · 30 | +33% |
| FY 2027 | USD 8.14 (USD 8.07–USD 8.37) · 37 | USD 90.4B (USD 89.1B–USD 91.7B) · 39 | +34% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-12-14.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 145,353,687 | $21.3B | 2,043,313 | 0.3% | 4.79% |
| State Street Passive / index | 78,645,193 | $11.5B | 2,342,018 | 0.3% | 2.59% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 26,025,909 | $3.8B | 3,145,069 | 0.2% | 0.86% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 1,432,967 | $210.0M | -159,102 | 0.9% | 0.05% |
| Renaissance Technologies Guru | 1,669 | $245448 | 1,669 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
Yahoo Finance (Business Wire) · 2026-10-27 · partnership
SambaNova and Oracle announced plans to deploy SambaNova inference systems in OCI data centers. Oracle plans to host the systems and offer the capacity to AI model builders; the announcement describes a planned deployment.
Yahoo Finance (PR Newswire) · 2026-10-27 · product
Oracle and Google announced that Google TPUs will be offered through OCI. Oracle will provide the power, cooling and data-center networking for the deployment, adding another compute architecture to its AI portfolio.
Yahoo Finance (PR Newswire) · 2026-10-27 · product
Oracle introduced additional Acceleron networking capabilities aimed at data movement, distributed AI workloads, fault recovery and multi-tenant cluster security. The announcement extends OCI’s networking and infrastructure portfolio.
Yahoo Finance (Business Wire) · 2026-10-27 · product
Intel and Oracle announced a planned multiyear collaboration covering current and future Xeon platforms, capacity planning and planned Diamond Rapids-based OCI offerings. Future products and roadmap coordination remain plans.
Yahoo Finance (GlobeNewswire) · 2026-10-27 · partnership
Cerebras and Oracle announced plans to make Cerebras inference available through OCI for AI labs, enterprises and developers. The collaboration targets interactive applications and agent workflows; the release does not establish that broad availability has already begun.
NVIDIA Newsroom · 2026-10-27 · partnership
The companies announced plans to expand Vera Rubin infrastructure to multi-gigawatt scale and said Vera Rubin NVL72 systems and Vera CPUs are generally available on OCI. Further planned capacity expansion remains forward-looking.
CNBC · 2026-10-08 · earnings
OpenAI told investors it hit roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September, CNBC confirmed, lower than the $68 billion figure widely reported late last month. A person familiar said the $68 billion figure included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, and that OpenAI cited 77% total run rate growth in its third quarter.
Bloomberg · 2026-10-08 · product
Oracle is trucking natural gas directly to data centers to keep several projects on track, including a site outside Salt Lake City that relied on truck deliveries for more than a year while waiting for a gas pipeline, according to people familiar with the work. The company is also using the approach for initial work at a campus being built for OpenAI in Shackelford County, Texas.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-07 · funding
Broadcom is working to assemble a package exceeding $50 billion to finance custom AI chip production for OpenAI, in early-stage talks with Apollo Global Management and Blackstone, according to The Wall Street Journal. Oracle is negotiating with Apollo and Goldman Sachs on financing to procure hardware for a 1-gigawatt data center, and SpaceX has engaged lenders on a $40 billion debt structure to acquire Nvidia processors.
Scout Clean Energy · 2026-10-07 · partnership
Scout Clean Energy signed a virtual power purchase agreement with Oracle for a majority of the output of its operational 300-megawatt Ranchero Wind Farm in Crockett County, Texas. The agreement is part of Oracle's investment in over 1.7 GW of renewable energy projects in Texas.
eSecurity Planet · 2026-10-07 · regulation
A Texas Attorney General filing, reported by Bloomberg, attributes a figure of nearly 20 million affected people to Oracle Health's 2025 breach. Attackers used compromised customer credentials to access legacy Cerner servers that had not yet been migrated into Oracle's newer cloud environment.
Business Insider · 2026-09-14 · personnel
Oracle began a further round of layoffs, which reporting ties to an expanding restructuring programme running alongside its AI capital spending.
Quartz · 2026-09-14 · funding
Oracle said on 12 September that chairman and founder Larry Ellison has cancelled the Rule 10b5-1 trading plan he had adopted to sell Oracle stock, a plan covering up to 50 million shares worth about $7.5 billion. Oracle's statement reads: "No Oracle stock was sold under that plan, and he has no other plans to sell any of his Oracle stock." Oracle gave no reason for the cancellation.
Reuters · 2026-09-12 · personnel
Oracle chairman and CTO Larry Ellison terminated a trading plan, disclosed a day earlier, that would have sold up to $7.5 billion of his Oracle shares. The reversal came days after the company's Q1 report.
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-11 · earnings
Oracle's earnings report disclosed AI cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations) of $664 billion, sending the stock up about 7%. Neocloud peers including CoreWeave rose roughly 4% on the read-through to AI infrastructure demand.
Oracle - Investor Relations · 2026-09-10 · earnings
Oracle reported fiscal Q1 results on 2026-09-10 that beat estimates, with total revenue up roughly 30% and cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubling year over year. Management pointed to an AI cloud backlog in the hundreds of billions and raised its outlook, while total debt reached about $125 billion.
KFOX · 2026-09-09 · product
Oracle is soliciting up to 2 gigawatts of new renewable generation to serve Project Jupiter, its data center development in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The request marks a multi-gigawatt power commitment behind Oracle's AI capacity build-out.
Google News: Oracle · 2026-07-15 · product
Oracle launched an AI-native expansion of its Fusion Agentic Applications to more builders.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-06 · partnership
Oracle announced the third cohort of its Oracle Defense Ecosystem program.
Courthouse News · 2026-07-02 · regulation
Investors filed suit alleging Oracle misled them regarding its cloud deal with OpenAI.
2026-10-29 PR Newswire Financial Services · Polymarket Deepens Partnership With Chainlink as Official Oracle for High-Speed Up/Down Markets and Launches Gold and Silver Trading
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Oracle Targets $225B Revenue by 2030 as AI Cloud Build-Out Accelerates
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Oracle Stock Rallies As Upbeat Revenue, Cash Flow Forecasts Ease AI Jitters
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Oracle Forecasts $30B Cash Flow By FY29, Helping Calm AI Capex Concerns, Pushing ORCL Stock To Its Best Day In Five Months
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Stock Market Today, Oct. 28: Oracle Surges on Fiscal 2030 Revenue Guidance of $225 Billion
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Oracle Stock Jumps 11% on Rosy Long-Term Targets
2026-10-28 MarketWatch Top Stories · Here’s what just sent Oracle’s stock soaring
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Oracle stock soars as it promises the AI spending will start paying for itself
2026-10-28 CNBC Top News · Oracle stock pops 11% as long-term revenue forecast and clarity on financing ease debt concerns
2026-10-28 PR Newswire Financial Services · Oracle Investor Day 2026: Accelerating Value Creation
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Oracle has a spending question its new chip deals can’t answer
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: SNOW · Is Oracle Stock Worth Buying as Autonomous Database Use Keeps Growing?
2026-10-28 Business Wire AI · F5 and Oracle Collaborate to Strengthen Application Security in the AI Era
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: CBRS · Cerebras Gains 10% on Oracle Cloud Deal as “AI Inference Demands Choice”
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Tech · Oracle Plans to Expand Multicloud AI Database Services to US Government and Public Sector Workloads
2026-10-27 Business Wire AI · SambaNova and Oracle Collaborate to Bring High-Performance Inference to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · SambaNova and Oracle Collaborate to Bring High-Performance Inference to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Health · Oracle Advances Enterprise Security for the AI Era
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Oracle Advances Enterprise Security for the AI Era
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: ORCL · Oracle Introduces Oracle Media Fabric
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-14 | earnings | Oracle earnings — Company-confirmed date. confirmed | High |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Oracle earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · Rev beat · -1.7% |
| 2026-06-10 | Oracle earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · -8.5% |
