TeraWulf (WULF) ☆

TeraWulf began as a bitcoin miner at Lake Mariner, on the site of a retired coal-fired plant in Barker, New York, and is becoming a developer and landlord of AI data-centre campuses. At the end of 2025, the 10-K says, its two campuses "have contracted 522 MW of critical IT load". The leases behind that figure are Core42 (60 MW, an initial ten-year term) and Fluidstack (378 MW, with Google credit support) at Lake Mariner, and a 168 MW, 25-year Fluidstack lease at the Abernathy, Texas joint venture, in which it holds 50.1 percent. In 2026 it moved further. By the Q2 2026 release it had 102 MW of revenue-generating capacity and 336 MW under construction at Lake Mariner, and HPC leasing was about 71 percent of revenue. It also signed a 20-year Anthropic lease for about 401 MW at its Justified campus in Kentucky, worth "approximately $19 billion of contracted revenue over the initial term", and agreed to sell its 50.1 percent Abernathy stake for "approximately $530 million". In Kentucky it is securing power ahead of tenants. The Justified power agreement was approved by the Kentucky Public Service Commission in August, Muskie's contracted power was raised to 1 GW, and delivery of its second 500 MW phase was brought forward to 2029, subject to Kentucky Public Service Commission approval (2026-10-05). The 10-K claims that in-house energy expertise "provides meaningful differentiation relative to many data center developers", but that is the company's own view. The documented constraints are a concentrated tenant base, credit backstops that switch on only at lease commencement, customer agreements that "may prohibit us from providing HPC hosting and colocation services to certain third parties, including competitors of existing HPC data center customers", no patents, and a history of operating losses. TeraWulf is rated as having no moat yet: its contracted, partly delivered capacity with credit-supported tenants is contracted revenue, and it is not protected from the well-capitalized rivals that are bidding for the same power and the same customers.

Rating: none

TeraWulf's case for a moat rests on long-term, credit-supported leases on power it controls, and only part of that capacity is delivered. Its 2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-27) says its HPC arrangements are "structured as long-term data center leases, typically with base terms ranging from 10 to 25 years, contractual escalators, and renewal and contraction options", and that "Certain projects benefit from investment-grade credit support". Google backstops Fluidstack's obligations under the Fluidstack leases. In the Q2 2026 release (2026-08-05, https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/144/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2026-results) the company reported "$31.9 million of HPC lease revenue, representing approximately 71% of total revenue", with 102 MW of revenue-generating critical IT capacity at Lake Mariner. It also reported a 20-year Anthropic lease for about 401 MW that "represents approximately $19 billion of contracted revenue over the initial term". Power is being contracted ahead of tenants: on 2026-10-05 the company said Kentucky Power had agreed to raise contracted capacity at its Muskie campus "from 500 megawatts ("MW") to 1 gigawatt ("GW")". The limits are also in the 10-K. Its competitors include REITs, independent developers, hyperscalers, infrastructure funds and converted miners. It says "We depend on significant customers for our HPC data centers", that backstops "are only effective following the commencement of the relevant lease", and that "The Company does not currently hold patents". Long leases are the standard form in this market, and with 102 MW in service against far more under contract, they are contracted revenue rather than a demonstrated advantage over rivals, so the band is none.

Type: none

No moat source is demonstrated yet. Switching costs are the most likely candidate, from long leases on purpose-built, liquid-cooled halls. The 10-K says Lake Mariner "incorporates advanced liquid-cooling systems, redundant electrical architectures, and scalable mechanical and network infrastructure optimized for high-density GPU deployments", leased under terms of "10 to 25 years". The only cited sign of a tenant expanding in place is small: the Q2 2026 10-Q says that in July 2026 the company "amended certain of the Fluidstack HPC Leases to increase the aggregate contracted critical IT load under two leases from 162 MW to 168 MW". The Anthropic lease has "an initial term of 20 years commencing upon delivery of the applicable leased premises, with two options to extend the initial term by five years each". Controlled power reinforces the position but is not exclusive. The 10-K says competition "is primarily centered on securing and developing high-power sites, accessing reliable and cost-competitive electricity, and attracting capital", which rivals with capital can also do. Intellectual property is not a source: the company holds no patents.

Leadership: fast follower

No independent share or rank was found. The 10-K says the company competes with "data center real estate investment trusts (REITs), independent data center developers, hyperscalers, infrastructure funds, and, in certain cases, digital asset miners with infrastructure suitable for HPC conversion". With 102 MW of revenue-generating critical IT capacity in service (Q2 2026 release), TeraWulf is small next to established operators. It has, however, won Fluidstack, Core42 and Anthropic as tenants and "reaffirms target of contracting 250–500 MW of incremental critical IT capacity annually". That is a fast follower.

Pricing power: moderate

The leases escalate and pass costs through: the 10-K cites "contractual escalators", and the Q2 2026 10-Q says operating costs "are passed through to the customers, generally with a mark-up". Against that, to obtain Google's backstop of Fluidstack's lease obligations, the company issued Google warrants "to purchase a total of 73,580,000 shares of Common Stock for an exercise price of $ 0.01 per share of Common Stock" (Q2 2026 10-Q). That gave value away to secure credit support. The 10-K lists the competitive factors as "site availability, power availability and economics, execution capability, access to capital, and customer relationships" and claims no price premium. Escalating long-term rents without evidence of a premium are moderate pricing power.

Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov

Compare with…

Value-chain position

Layer: datacenters, power & cooling

• Upstream (suppliers): —
• Downstream (customers): —
• Competitors: Core Scientific

TeraWulf supplies powered, liquid-cooled critical IT capacity to AI compute tenants (Fluidstack with Google credit support, Core42 and Anthropic) from campuses where it controls land, interconnection and power contracts. Bitcoin mining at Lake Mariner is a legacy load.

Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.

Signal contribution editorial prior

The moat prior voted +0.01 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is bearish (score -0.50, conviction 66).

Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →

Product lineup

Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.

What you're looking at

These charts plot TeraWulf's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-08-05. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.

Over the reported window, net income at a loss of $661.4M in FY2025.

Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.

Filings

• 2025Q4 · filed 2026-08-05 source: sec.gov
• 2026Q2 · filed 2026-08-05 source: sec.gov
• 2025Q2 · filed 2026-08-05 source: sec.gov
• 2025Q3 · filed 2026-08-05 source: sec.gov
• 2026Q1 · filed 2026-05-08 source: sec.gov

Key ratios vs peers

Comparing against peers…

Institutional holders (13F, 2026Q2)

TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.