AI-adopting incumbents · Industry Index 14 (rank #66) ·
price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-08-28 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Global omnichannel retailer operating three reportable segments - Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. - which generated $713.2 billion of total revenue in fiscal 2026 with approximately 2.1 million associates.
Industry exposure 0.1 (AI-adopting incumbent, not an AI vendor. Its FY2026 10-K (year ended 2026-01-31) says Walmart expands its assortment and service offerings "including through the integration of advanced technologies such as AI" and that its "strategies increasingly include the use of AI-powered tools to support customer and member-facing experiences, associate productivity and operational efficiency across our ecosystem", lists an EVP of "AI Acceleration, Product and Design" effective August 2025, and describes "company-wide AI learning pathways and certifications" for a "digitally skilled, AI-enabled workforce"; it names no AI counterparty, so the graph edge comes from Microsoft's own newsroom. Retail merchandising, not AI, remains the business.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:earnings in 22 days
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | $118 CALL | 30 | mid-market · no side | +10 | 1,576 | 2.6× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $119 CALL | 27 | mid-market · no side | +57 | 1,940 | 1.0× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $119 CALL | 23 | buy-side | +323 | 726 | 1.3× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $75 CALL | 23 | mid-market · no side | +1 | 51 | 5.7× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $118 CALL | 23 | mid-market · no side | +11 | 748 | 1.6× |
15 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 0.7× its 13-day baseline
73% calls / 27% puts (by premium)
Price momentum set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a positive tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.16.
A mildly-positive score, but weak agreement — so the engine returns a no-conviction Neutral rather than overclaim. This is the system refusing to force a call it doesn’t have.
In the FY2026 10-K text readable this run, Walmart describes an "enterprise strategy, which combines traditional retail, membership models, marketplaces, financial services, health and wellness and other customer and business services into a series of interconnected assets to make it seamless for customers to interact with us," carried by stores, clubs and distribution and fulfillment centers that double as pickup and delivery nodes and by continuing investment in eCommerce, AI and supply chain automation. The filing sets its own limits on that: it calls the omnichannel landscape "highly competitive and rapidly evolving," warns that well-funded entrants and faster AI or agentic tooling by rivals may increase pressure, that smaller businesses may out-innovate it online, and that "a greater concentration of eCommerce sales, including increasing online grocery sales and the increasing role of AI-enabled platforms in product search, discovery, advertising and purchasing, could result in a reduction in the amount of traffic in our stores and clubs." On economics it concedes supplier cost increases it may be "unable, or choose not, to pass on to our customers," and it points investors to "advertising and other higher-margin initiatives (which are expected to help drive our operating income growth at a rate faster than net sales over the long term)" rather than to price.
Rating: narrow
Graded on the Item 1A text this run could read from the FY2026 10-K, which is where the filing argues hardest against a wide band. It says "each of our segments competes for customers, employees, digital prominence, products and services" with local, regional, national and global physical, eCommerce and omnichannel retailers, social commerce platforms, wholesale club operators, retail intermediaries "and emerging agentic shopping tools and platforms," that "the omnichannel retail landscape is highly competitive and rapidly evolving, and the entry of new, well-funded competitors, or more rapid development of AI capabilities and agentic tools by these competitors ... may increase competitive pressures," and concedes that "for eCommerce and other internet-based businesses, newer or smaller businesses may be better able to innovate and compete with us" and that there "can be no assurance" Walmart can adopt AI "as quickly or effectively as our competitors." It also warns of retail consolidation producing rivals with "improved financial resources, improved access to merchandise, greater market penetration." The filing claims no market share, rank or scale advantage anywhere in the text available here, and its own competitive-landscape discussion sits in Item 1, which the cached read-through returned only as a cross-reference; a wider band would not be sourced.
Type: cost scale
What the readable text does describe as durable is physical and logistical scale rather than lock-in or IP. It says Walmart sources "from a wide variety of domestic and international suppliers," that global sourcing is "an important factor in our financial performance," and that finding suppliers able to supply "in the large volumes we may demand" is itself a challenge; it describes a network of stores, clubs and distribution and fulfillment centers in which "many products available for purchase online can be picked up by the customer or member at a local Walmart store or Sam's Club, which provides additional customer traffic at such stores and clubs"; and it lists "supply chain automation and enhancements" among the investments backing the strategy. The first competitive lever it names is "the prices at which we sell our merchandise." The filing offers no intangibles or switching-cost claim beyond noting that protection of its trademarks, copyrights, domain names, patents and trade secrets "may not be available in every jurisdiction."
Leadership: co leader
The 10-K text available this run asserts no rank or share for Walmart. The band reflects two things the filing does say: that its strategy is meant to let it "maintain or grow our overall market position" across segments that already compete at global scale, and that it does not describe itself as ahead in the channels that matter most to it - "for eCommerce and other internet-based businesses, newer or smaller businesses may be better able to innovate and compete with us," and on AI adoption "there can be no assurance that these investments will deliver the anticipated benefits, or that we will be able to adopt and leverage these technologies as quickly or effectively as our competitors." Treat this band as bounded by the missing Item 1 competition discussion, not as a measured position.
Pricing power: weak
The filing names price first among the ways it competes - "we compete in a variety of ways, including the prices at which we sell our merchandise" - and states that higher supplier labour and material costs may "adversely impact product margins ... that we are unable, or choose not, to pass on to our customers." It adds that macro conditions can "change the mix of products we sell to any one or more markets with a lower average gross margin" and "result in slower inventory turnover and greater markdowns of inventory." In health and wellness the price is set by counterparties, not by Walmart: "a large majority of our retail pharmacy net sales are generated by filling prescriptions for which we receive payment through established contractual relationships with third-party payers and payment administrators, such as private insurers, governmental agencies and pharmacy benefit managers," exposing it to "reductions in the third-party reimbursement rates for drugs."
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: AI-adopting incumbents
A retailer that also intermediates: it sells its own sourced merchandise, hosts third-party marketplace sellers for whom it may provide "fulfillment, inventory management, tax collection, payment processing, content," sells digital advertising against that traffic, dispenses prescriptions under PBM and payer contracts, and offers financial services "including through our digital channels, stores and clubs, as well as our OnePay fintech venture."
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.05 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score -0.21, conviction 14).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| Advertising · Retail media and digital advertising The advertising business built on Walmart's customer traffic and data. The filing names it as one of the "advertising and other higher-margin initiatives (which are expected to help drive our operating income growth at a rate faster than net sales over the long term)." | Unknown No share, rank or revenue figure for advertising is disclosed in the text available this run. The filing states only that it competes with "companies that offer services in digital advertising, data analytics/insights, fulfillment and delivery services, health and wellness and financial services." | Moderate The cited basis is proprietary first-party data and traffic: the filing says it "collect[s] certain consumer data, which is stored digitally and used to conduct and facilitate our businesses" and lists "quality and accessibility of data for customers, suppliers, and associates" among the ways it competes. It attaches an explicit regulatory limit - a "growing patchwork of AI laws and targeted privacy and consumer protection statutes may also create varying obligations around notice, customer rights and appeals, data minimization, restrictions on sensitive data, targeted advertising and certain forms of profiling" - and warns that AI-enabled platforms taking a larger role "in product search, discovery, advertising and purchasing" could reduce store traffic. |
| Retail pharmacy and health and wellness · Pharmacy and health services The filing states: "We have retail pharmacy operations in our Walmart U.S. and Sam's Club U.S. segments across the U.S. and in various of our international markets such as Canada and Mexico," alongside optometry operations named in the regulatory discussion. | Unknown No share or rank is disclosed. The filing names the competitive set only generically - "increased competition from other retail pharmacy operations including competitors offering online retail pharmacy options and/or home delivery options." | Moderate The filing frames the barrier as regulatory and contractual rather than proprietary: pharmacy and optometry operations sit under "health and wellness related regulations," drug supply chain security requirements and licensure, and access to volume runs through "pharmacy payer network arrangements, including exclusive and preferred pharmacy network arrangements operated by PBMs" from which Walmart can be included or excluded. It also flags supplier concentration risk: if pharmaceutical supply from one or more vendors were disrupted, operations "could be severely affected" and a significant number of customers could transfer prescriptions elsewhere. |
| Sam's Club · Membership warehouse club The membership club business, named as its own segment ("Sam's Club U.S.") in the pharmacy disclosure and included in the enterprise strategy the filing describes as combining "traditional retail, membership models, marketplaces, financial services, health and wellness and other customer and business services into a series of interconnected assets." | Unknown No share or rank is disclosed. The filing places the business in a field of "wholesale club operators" it competes with, without sizing it. | Moderate The cited basis is the recurring membership relationship the filing treats as a strategic asset - it lists "membership models" among the interconnected assets meant to "deepen and maintain our relationships with our customers," and notes club pickup of online orders drives incremental traffic. The filing does not quantify renewal or retention, and it flags consumer-protection regulation covering "membership subscription and cancellation." |
| Walmart International (including Flipkart) · International retail and eCommerce The non-U.S. operating segment, whose reported results the filing says are exposed to currency translation, and which includes the Flipkart subsidiary in India named in the competition-law discussion. | Unknown No share or rank is disclosed for any international market. | Moderate The filing offers no positive barrier claim for the segment; the only structural facts it gives are constraints that cut both ways - "regulatory restrictions (such as foreign ownership restrictions) on eCommerce and retail operations in international markets, such as in India," and "antitrust and competition law regulatory matters, such as those underway in Canada, Mexico and India (relating to our Flipkart subsidiary)." It also warns that regulation could "alter our relationships with our customers, partners and other third parties, including our ability to continue certain relationships in Mexico, India or other international jurisdictions." |
| Walmart U.S. · Omnichannel general merchandise and grocery retail The domestic stores-plus-digital segment. The 10-K describes pickup, delivery and shipping programs under which "many products available for purchase online can be picked up by the customer or member at a local Walmart store," and says U.S. operations "comprise a significant portion of our financial and operational performance." | Unknown The 10-K text available this run states no market share or rank for the segment. It says only that each segment competes with many local, regional, national and global physical, eCommerce and omnichannel retailers, social commerce platforms, wholesale club operators and retail intermediaries. | Moderate The cited basis is the physical network and its logistics: stores that also serve as pickup points and generate "additional customer traffic," distribution and fulfillment centers, and continuing investment in "supply chain automation and enhancements." The filing itself caps the barrier - the omnichannel landscape is "highly competitive and rapidly evolving," well-funded entrants may raise pressure, and shifting sales online "could result in a reduction in the amount of traffic in our stores and clubs, which would, in turn, reduce the opportunities for cross-store or cross-club sales." |
| eCommerce and third-party marketplace · Digital retail and seller platform Walmart's digital platforms plus the marketplace on which third parties sell to its customers. The filing says its arrangements with marketplace sellers "are complex" and "may include fulfillment, inventory management, tax collection, payment processing, content and engaging other third parties to perform services." | Unknown No share figure or rank is given. The filing describes the field instead - it competes with eCommerce and omnichannel retailers, social commerce platforms, retail intermediaries and "emerging agentic shopping tools and platforms." | Low The filing supplies the counter-evidence itself: "for eCommerce and other internet-based businesses, newer or smaller businesses may be better able to innovate and compete with us," and it warns that failure to provide platforms meeting "developments in online, digital, and agentic merchandising" could place it "at a competitive disadvantage." It also carries marketplace-specific liability risk, noting that "some regulators and courts have taken a view that the retailer is responsible for marketplace transactions" and that poor third-party product quality "could erode customer trust, leading to loss of sales, reduction in transactions and deterioration of our competitive position." |
These charts plot Walmart's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-08-28. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, revenue grew 87% to $706.4B (FY2008→FY2026); net income at $21.9B in FY2026.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 0.64 (USD 0.62–USD 0.67) · 35 | USD 187.2B (USD 185.6B–USD 189.8B) · 29 | +5% |
| FY 2027 | USD 2.89 (USD 2.80–USD 3.08) · 39 | USD 752.9B (USD 746.6B–USD 757.9B) · 37 | +7% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-11-19.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Some recent figures are from Yahoo Finance where the latest SEC filing hasn’t posted yet — FX-converted to USD and reconciled against SEC-filed periods.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 354,196,208 | $40.1B | 1,110,560 | 0.6% | 4.45% |
| State Street Passive / index | 188,036,646 | $21.3B | 2,107,781 | 0.6% | 2.36% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 31,265,128 | $3.5B | -512,321 | 0.2% | 0.39% |
| Renaissance Technologies Guru | 410,525 | $46.5M | 401,302 | 0.1% | 0.01% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 258,759 | $29.3M | 6,950 | 0.1% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
The Next Web · 2026-10-06 · partnership
Sierra and Meta are developing Personal Agent Protocol, an open standard defining how personal AI agents authenticate with businesses and what those businesses let them do, with Genesys, Instinct, Rocket, Shopify, Stripe and Walmart. A v0.1 specification is due this month.
Progressive Grocer · 2026-09-11 · partnership
Walmart added Papa Johns to its delivery marketplace, extending its last-mile network into restaurant pizza delivery. The move pushes Walmart further into territory held by DoorDash and Uber Eats.
Bloomberg · 2026-09-10 · partnership
Walmart added Papa John's to the restaurant partners available through its delivery marketplace, extending its on-demand delivery network beyond groceries and general merchandise. The deal was reported independently by Bloomberg, PYMNTS, Nation's Restaurant News and Restaurant Dive.
LiveNOW from FOX · 2026-09-01 · regulation
The FDA says mangoes sold at Walmart have been recalled over possible salmonella contamination.
MassLive · 2026-09-01 · regulation
Walmart issued an urgent safety warning after recalled products were sold to consumers following the recall.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-01 · partnership
Solace Health is expanding access to healthcare advocacy through Walmart's Better Care Services Platform.
Retail Dive · 2026-09-01 · personnel
Kohl's has named a Walmart fashion alumnus as its chief merchant, Retail Dive reports.
Retail Dive · 2026-09-01 · product
Retail Dive reports Walmart will build a $1.3 billion fulfillment center in Georgia.
Fast Company · 2026-08-31 · product
Walmart turned its viral rotisserie chicken into a purse sold at the chicken's own $5.97 price.
KARK · 2026-08-31 · regulation
The Department of Justice settled with Walmart for $50 million over unlawful opioid prescriptions dispensed by its pharmacies.
Kotaku · 2026-08-31 · product
Walmart is turning to a lottery to allocate Pokemon trading cards as the trading-card supply debacle continues.
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: WMT · FTC orders Walmart, Delta and others to share how they use personal data to set prices and pay
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: WMT · Walmart (WMT) Launched A Healthcare Services Marketplace
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: WMT · WMT vs. MELI: Which Stock Holds the Edge for Investors Now?
2026-10-27 CNBC Top News · Walmart says AI training is boosting confidence with the technology among its 2.1 million associates
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: WMT · Walmart has a new plan to solve one of its customers' biggest problems
2026-10-27 Business Wire Health · Walmart and Care Access Plan Three Additional Clinical Trial Centers to Expand Access to Medical Research
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: WMT · Walmart and Care Access Plan Three Additional Clinical Trial Centers to Expand Access to Medical Research
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: WMT · Vita Coco® Introduces Vita Coco Kids, Designed for the Next Generation of Coconut Water Drinkers and Available Exclusively at Select Walmart Locations
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: WMT · If You Invested $1000 in Walmart a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now
2026-10-26 MarketWatch Top Stories · Walmart, Best Buy and other stores now use digital price tags. Critics say they could lead to different prices for different shoppers.
2026-10-26 Business Wire Health · Walmart Expands Better Care Services, Powered by General Medicine’s Healthcare Store
2026-10-23 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - Walmart Inc. (0000104169) (Filer)
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · TreviPay élargit la disponibilité du paiement sur facture pour les clients de Walmart Business
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · TreviPay erweitert die Verfügbarkeit von „Pay by Invoice“ für Walmart-Geschäftskunden
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · Samenvatting: TreviPay breidt beschikbaarheid van Pay by Invoice uit voor klanten van Walmart Business
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · Resumen: TreviPay amplía la disponibilidad del pago mediante factura para los clientes empresariales de Walmart
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · Riassunto: TreviPay estende la disponibilità del pagamento tramite fattura Pay by Invoice per i clienti Walmart Business
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · TreviPay Expands Pay by Invoice Availability for Walmart Business Customers
2026-10-20 Business Wire AI · AdFury Launches AI-Native Rich Media Tool, Unlocking Agentic Below-the-Fold Content for Brands on Walmart
2026-10-20 CNBC Top News · Walmart launches joint membership with Sam's Club as it leans into delivery, gas discounts
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-27 | earnings | Walmart earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — estimated from EDGAR filing cadence (last periodic filing + 91/365 days); confirm via IR. estimated | Medium |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Walmart earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · +0.1% |
