Compare moats
Up to three covered companies, band by band. Every call is a curated editorial judgment, never a disclosed figure — and every band carries its cited basis.
| ASM International | ASML | Nokia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moat rating | narrow The 2025 annual report (published 2026-03-12) says 'ASM is the leader in the fast-growing single-wafer ALD market – with a market share of 55%+ (ASM estimate, Investor Day 2025)'. It says ASM 'maintained leadership with our market share surpassing 55%' as the industry moved from FinFET to GAA. And it says that 'Based on the breadth of our R&D engagements and critical production-tool-of-record (PTOR) selections already secured in 2025, we expect to at least maintain our market share' into the 1.4nm node. The Q2 2026 results (https://www.asm.com/media/y0mkxj21/20260728-asm-reports-second-quarter-2026-results.pdf) say the 1.4nm node is on track for its first meaningful contribution in the second half of 2026, 'reflecting increased market share gains in both ALD and Epi'. 2025 gross margin was 51.8%. That is a strong, profitable position, but every share figure behind it is ASM's own estimate or expectation, and no independent share source supports it, so the rating is narrow rather than wide. The exposures also weigh: the five largest customers took about 53.6% of 2025 revenue and China more than 30%, and the report describes the main competitors as 'much larger companies from the United States and Asia'. | wide ASML's FY2025 20-F states it "is currently the world's only manufacturer of EUV lithography systems" — an effective monopoly on the extreme-ultraviolet tools required to pattern leading-edge logic and memory chips. | narrow The advantage is narrow and confined to one small unit. In the FY2025 20-F (filed 2026-03-05), Nokia Technologies turned EUR 1 501m of net sales into EUR 1 059m of operating profit (70.6%) while the group earned EUR 885m on EUR 19 889m (4.4%) — licensing out-earned the whole company on 7.5% of sales. Mobile Networks ran a 2.8% margin, down 270bps from 5.5% in 2024, against risk factors citing "equipment price erosion and aggressive price competition". Nokia Technologies net sales fell 22% from EUR 1 928m and operating profit 30% on 2024 catch-up, yet it is not eroding: over EUR 800m of contracted recurring revenue runs through 2030 and Technology Standards grew 12% cc in H1'26. |
| Moat type | intangibles ip The report grounds the ALD lead in accumulated process know-how and patents rather than unit cost: 'ASM has the broadest portfolio of ALD products with innovative ALD reactor designs. Our strength in chemistries and applications using new materials means our customers can meet advanced node technology challenges.' It also cites a LexisNexis PatentSight study finding that 'ASM holds a strong and impactful patent portfolio on its core strength of ALD as measured by both Competitive Impact and Patent Asset Index'. Switching friction reinforces this. Tools enter fabs through PTOR selection, the report notes that 'Failing a customer during a production ramp could create significant problems for them', and installed systems are supported 'with a view to having them in production 24/7 for 20+ years'. But ASM wins those PTOR slots node by node on process capability, which makes IP the primary source. | intangibles ip The durable advantage rests on decades of proprietary technology and IP — the 20-F describes ASML's April 2025 1,000-watt EUV light source as "built on 25 years of engineering advancements" — reinforced by an exclusive arrangement with Carl Zeiss SMT as its "sole supplier" of the critical optics no rival can source. | intangibles ip The advantage is standard-essential cellular patents, and it lives in one unit. Nokia Technologies conducts "cellular, multimedia and WiFi research and standardization, protects Nokia's innovation by securing patents" and "monetizes Nokia's innovation through patent licensing", across "more than 26 000 families, including over 8 000 essential to 5G" and "more than 250 licensees" including Apple, Samsung and Mercedes-Benz. It is not network effects or switching costs: customers "may also consolidate their supplier base to our disadvantage - all the way to a one-supplier model". From 1 January 2026 the unit reports as Technology Standards inside Mobile Infrastructure. |
| Leadership | co leader In single-wafer ALD, which is more than half of equipment sales, the report calls ASM 'the leader' with a 55%+ share. That share is ASM's own estimate; the Investor Day 2025 deck (https://www.asm.com/media/m3jhkm12/asm_investor_day_2025.pdf) sources it to 'ASM internal analysis and TechInsights'. With no independent share source, the band is held at co_leader rather than clear_leader. ASM does not lead every line: 'ASM has the number two share in the Epi equipment market', and in PECVD and vertical furnaces it is 'focused on niche portions of the market'. | clear leader Effectively 100% of the EUV market as the world's only EUV system maker; in the older DUV segment it "compete[s] primarily with Canon and Nikon" yet remains the leading supplier. | at parity Nokia is top-three almost everywhere and decisive only in slices. The 20-F reports that "Dell'Oro and Omdia ranked Nokia third in global Mobile RAN market share for the first three quarters", and Radio Networks is the largest single business unit (EUR 1 765m of EUR 4 815m group, Q2'26). It also holds #2 in global optical, #1 in IP edge routing and #1 in xPON OLT for a sixth year (Dell'Oro/Omdia Q3'25), while in data centers it competes "against large incumbent players" and calls expansion "challenging". 2025 segment sales were Network Infrastructure EUR 7 986m vs Mobile Networks EUR 7 806m; the Q2'26 6-K shows Optical +20%, IP +16% cc, AI & Cloud EUR 446m vs 220m, Radio +7%. |
| Pricing power | moderate Gross margin rose from 50.5% to 51.8% in 2025 and was 51.9% in Q2 2026. But the report attributes the 2025 gain to 'a very strong mix, including a continued solid contribution from the Chinese market' and to efficiency programs, not to price. It targets a range of 47% to 51% for 2026-2030, and the Q2 2026 release expects full-year 2026 gross margin 'to be around 51%'. Buyers are concentrated: the 10 largest customers were about 72.3% of 2025 revenue, the five largest about 53.6%, and two customers each contributed more than 10% of total revenue. | strong FY2025 gross margin of 52.8%, up 1.5 percentage points year over year, with management guiding toward 56-60% by 2030 — consistent with monopoly pricing power on EUV tools. | weak Pricing power is weak at the consolidated grain, in the filing's own words. The 20-F risk factors describe a market "characterized by maturing industry technologies... equipment price erosion and aggressive price competition", customers "reverting to vendors to compensate" for their own unit-revenue erosion, and warn Nokia "may increasingly be required to agree to less favorable contractual terms in order to remain competitive". Group operating margin was 4.4% in 2025. This band covers equipment, ~92% of sales, not licensing, whose FRAND-bound royalties ran a 70.6% margin; supply-tight optical is our inference, not filing text. |
| Summary | ASM International, headquartered in the Netherlands, makes wafer-processing equipment with a focus on deposition: single-wafer ALD, silicon epitaxy, PECVD, vertical furnaces, silicon-carbide epitaxy and, since its acquisition of Axus in December 2025, CMP. Spares & Services made up 23% of 2025 revenue. ALD is the core. It was the largest product line, 'clearly accounting for more than half of our equipment sales', and ASM estimates its single-wafer ALD share at 55%+. The report frames ALD as increasingly necessary, saying 'ALD is the only deposition technology capable of meeting the coverage and film-property requirements for complex 3D structures', and expects ALD layers to grow in GAA transistor stacks, backside-power architectures and future 4F² DRAM. Epitaxy is the second-largest line: the report says ASM holds the number two share there and lifted its leading-edge share from 12% in 2020 to 25% in 2024, both by ASM's own figures. 2025 revenue reached a record €3.2 billion at a gross margin of 51.8%; per the Q2 2026 results, Q2 2026 revenue was €1,003 million at 51.9%. The exposures are customer concentration (the five largest customers were about 53.6% of 2025 revenue), geography (Asia was 80% of revenue and China more than 30%), and export restrictions that the report says are 'impacting our ability to sell and service systems in certain jurisdictions and for certain customers'. | ASML is the sole producer of EUV lithography systems, the only tools able to pattern the most advanced logic and memory nodes, with a roadmap "intended to drive affordable scaling to 2030 and beyond" and a High-NA EUV (TWINSCAN EXE) platform on which customers "had run more than 400,000 wafers" by end-2025. That dominance is protected by 25 years of accumulated engineering IP and an exclusive lock on Carl Zeiss SMT optics that competitors cannot replicate. | Nokia's moat is real but small and segment-bound. Per the FY2025 Form 20-F (filed 2026-03-05; Nokia files a 20-F, not a 10-K), the cellular SEP portfolio — 26 000+ patent families, 8 000+ declared essential to 5G, 250+ licensees, EUR 800m+ annual contracted recurring revenue through 2030 — produced a 70.6% operating margin on EUR 1 501m of sales and out-earned the entire group (EUR 885m). Everything else is competitive equipment: group operating margin 4.4%, Mobile Networks 2.8% (-270bps), with the filing's own risk factors describing price erosion, less favorable contract terms and customers consolidating "all the way to a one-supplier model". Rankings are per-line (#3 RAN, #2 optical, #1 IP edge routing, #1 xPON OLT; Dell'Oro/Omdia Q3'25), never company-wide. Q2/H1'26 figures come from the 23 Jul 2026 6-K: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924613/000110465926086081/tm2621179d1_6k.htm |
| Chain position | Upstream wafer-fab-equipment supplier to logic/foundry and memory chipmakers. 'The leading-edge logic/foundry market was the main growth driver for ASM, on the back of 2nm investments' in 2025, advanced-node DRAM was the largest part of memory sales, and Asia was 80% of revenue. | Upstream chokepoint of the AI chip supply chain: every leading-edge logic/DRAM wafer for AI accelerators is patterned on ASML EUV tools, making it the single indispensable equipment supplier to TSMC, Samsung and Intel. | — |
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| Long-horizon vote | +0.13 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | +0.42 at weight 0.20 · swarm bullish Editorial prior, not backtested. | -0.01 at weight 0.20 · swarm bearish Editorial prior, not backtested. |