Compare moats
Up to three covered companies, band by band. Every call is a curated editorial judgment, never a disclosed figure — and every band carries its cited basis.
| FormFactor | Macronix International | Jabil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moat rating | narrow An independent tracker places FormFactor in a small group of suppliers, but the same tracker expects it to lose the top spot. TrendForce's June 2026 report on the probe card market (Part 2, 2026-06-26, https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP260626XO3) says 'FormFactor, Technoprobe, and MJC dominate, while Taiwan's CHPT, MPI, and WinWay gain share riding the AI wave'. It describes the economics as 'Consumable probe tips create a high-margin hardware subscription model; repair and replacement fees are key profit drivers'. Its outlook reads: 'Total revenue is forecast to surge sharply in 2026, with Technoprobe poised to overtake FormFactor as the top global supplier.' FormFactor's own margins over the last three fiscal years do not show exceptional returns. TradingPilot's fundamentals record from the FY2025 10-K (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039399/000103939926000009/0001039399-26-000009-index.htm) shows gross profit of $258.6M on $663.1M of revenue in FY2023, $307.9M on $763.6M in FY2024 and $308.9M on $785.0M in FY2025. Gross margin has since risen to 50.7% (GAAP) in Q2 2026. A defended place among three dominant suppliers, but one whose rank is slipping to a rival, is a narrow moat rather than a wide one. | none Macronix has real niches, but its returns show no durable edge. It lost money through the last downturn, and in its largest market it trails two rivals. Its 2025 annual report shows a net loss of NT$3.3 billion (loss per share NT$1.77) on revenue of NT$28.9 billion, at an average gross margin of 17.8%. The year before, the net loss was NT$3,212,284 thousand. NOR Flash was 61% of 2025 revenue. In that market TrendForce (2026-09-14) names Winbond the 'market leader' and GigaDevice 'second-ranked', and Macronix gives its own share as 'approximately 16.9% in 2025'. Today's profits come from an industry-wide shortage. Gross margin rose to 64.4% in 2Q26 from 15.6% a year earlier. The Taipei Times (2026-07-30) reports that Macronix cited 'sharp price increases in NAND and NOR amid supply constraints'. | none Jabil's FY2025 10-K (fiscal year ended August 31, 2025) says it plainly: "Our business is highly competitive, and our manufacturing processes are generally not subject to significant proprietary protection." It adds that "The significant purchasing power and market power of these competitors, many of which are large companies, has and could increase pricing and competitive pressures for us", that some "have substantially greater manufacturing, research and development (R&D) and marketing resources", and that customers "are continually evaluating the merits of manufacturing products internally against the advantages of outsourcing". Stored fundamentals from the 10-Ks show gross profit of $2,867 million on $34,702 million of revenue in fiscal 2023, $2,676 million on $28,883 million in fiscal 2024 and $2,646 million on $29,802 million in fiscal 2025. AI demand has since accelerated growth (fiscal 2026 net revenue of $36.0 billion, per the 2026-09-30 release), but growth is not protection, and the filing's own description is of an unprotected, competitive service. No moat is claimable. |
| Moat type | intangibles ip The tracker locates the advantage in proprietary probe technology. TrendForce's Part 1 report (2026-06-23, https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP260623JC3) says 'MEMS has become the mainstream probe process; proprietary tip alloy formulas are now the key differentiator for current capacity and longevity'. FormFactor's own example is SmartMatrix, its full-wafer contactor for high-bandwidth memory (HBM). On the Q1 2026 call (https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/29/formfactor-form-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/), management called it 'FormFactor's differentiated Smart Matrix full wafer contactor technology'. The consumable-tip model TrendForce describes is a recurring-revenue feature of the product rather than a separate lock-in, so intangibles/IP is the better-supported moat source. | none The evidence does not support any of the candidate moat sources strongly enough. Scale: in NOR, TrendForce (2026-09-14) names Winbond 'market leader' and GigaDevice 'second-ranked', ahead of Macronix. Its capacity is 'effectively capped at around 25,000 wafers per month' (TrendForce News, 2026-04-28). IP: it holds 9,911 patents (2025 annual report), but they did not keep it profitable through the downturn. Niche position: TrendForce (2026-01-07) says Macronix 'has a competitive edge' in MLC NAND. That niche opened because Samsung, 'formerly the largest supplier', is exiting. TrendForce also warns that improved TLC solutions or a NAND downturn could pressure MLC prices. ROM: the company says it holds over half the market, but the line is shrinking. ROM revenue fell to NT$4,625,353 thousand in 2025 from NT$5,403,832 thousand in 2024. | none The 10-K says "We currently have a relatively modest number of patents for various innovations" and that Jabil relies "largely upon a combination of intellectual property laws, non-disclosure agreements with our customers, employees, and suppliers and our internal security systems, policies, and procedures", with other proprietary-rights factors being "the knowledge and experience of our management and workforce". Its stated advantages are operating methods (customer-dedicated business units, "highly automated, continuous flow manufacturing", global production and centralized procurement), not lock-in: "In the past, some of our customers moved a portion of their manufacturing from us in order to more fully utilize their excess internal manufacturing capacity." On the Q4 FY2026 call (https://earningswhispers.com/transcript/JBL/Q42026) management described a build-to-customer-design model rather than proprietary platforms: "We help customers build the system they've designed with their silicon, their architecture, and whichever suppliers they choose." |
| Leadership | co leader TrendForce's Part 2 report (2026-06-26) names 'FormFactor, Technoprobe, and MJC' as the dominant suppliers and says 'Total revenue is forecast to surge sharply in 2026, with Technoprobe poised to overtake FormFactor as the top global supplier', which implies FormFactor holds the top rank now and that TrendForce expects it to lose that rank. In logic, the rival reports a large position. Technoprobe's May 2026 company presentation (https://www.technoprobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Technoprobe-Company-Presentation-May-2026.pdf, citing Yole's Q3 2024 test consumables monitor) gives Technoprobe 'Market Share: 34%' of the $1.6 billion 2024 logic probe card market and 60% of the $937 million MEMS logic probe card market. TrendForce gives no percentage for FormFactor. A shared front rank, with the overall lead forecast to pass to Technoprobe, is co-leadership. | fast follower In NOR Flash, TrendForce (2026-09-14) discusses 'market leader Winbond', 'second-ranked GigaDevice' and MXIC among 'major NOR Flash suppliers'. Macronix puts its own NOR share at approximately 16.9% in 2025, up from approximately 16.1% in 2024 (annual reports). Its claims to lead narrower markets rest on weaker evidence. The 2025 annual report says its ROM products 'account for more than 50% of the global market', which is a company claim. The Taipei Times (2026-07-30) says Macronix 'dominates the market for low-density multi-level-cell NAND used in eMMC'. | at parity The 10-K calls Jabil "one of the leading providers of engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain solutions" and claims no rank. Independently, EMSNOW/in4ma's "EMS&ODM Global 100" (2026-03-06, https://www.emsnow.com/?p=53535) groups Jabil with Flex, Celestica and Sanmina as the US "big four", "representing about 85% of the revenue base among ~20 US headquartered EMS/ODM", while Wistron, Quanta and Wiwynn "plus Foxconn together account for nearly 57% of global EMS/ODM production". The 10-K concedes some competitors have "substantially greater manufacturing, research and development (R&D) and marketing resources". Among the largest Western contract manufacturers but behind the Taiwanese leaders in scale: at parity, not a leader. |
| Pricing power | moderate Gross margin sat near 39-40% for three years, per TradingPilot's fundamentals record from the FY2025 10-K ($258.6M on $663.1M, $307.9M on $763.6M and $308.9M on $785.0M for FY2023-FY2025). It then jumped. The Q2 2026 results release (https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20600102, 2026-07-29) reports GAAP gross margin of 50.7%, against 38.4% in Q1 2026 and 37.3% in Q2 2025, and guides Q3 2026 to 52.0% plus or minus 1.5%. Management attributes the gain to cost and yield rather than price. On the Q1 2026 call it said 'pricing really is not a driver of the gross margin improvement. It's COGS reduction and our operations team continuing to improve yields and cycle times'. TrendForce describes consumable probe tips as 'a high-margin hardware subscription model'. Margins are higher now, but FormFactor itself does not credit price for the improvement. | weak Supply, not Macronix, has set prices across the cycle. Gross margin was 17.8% for 2025 (annual report) and 15.6% in 2Q25, then rose to 40.8% in 1Q26 and 64.4% in 2Q26 (Taipei Times, 2026-07-30). During the shortage Macronix has raised NOR Flash and SLC NAND prices and 'shifted to a monthly negotiation model' (TrendForce News, 2026-04-28). It expects gross margin to reach 80 percent 'in the foreseeable future' (Taipei Times, 2026-07-30). These gains follow an industry-wide shortage: TrendForce (2026-09-14) reports that NOR contract prices rose by a cumulative average of 100–120% in 1H26. | weak Stored fundamentals show gross profit of $2,867 million on $34,702 million of revenue in fiscal 2023, $2,676 million on $28,883 million in fiscal 2024 and $2,646 million on $29,802 million in fiscal 2025. The 10-K says "Most of our significant long-term customer contracts permit quarterly or other periodic prospective adjustments to pricing based on decreases and increases in component prices and other factors", so component costs largely pass through, while competitors may "be better positioned to compete on price for their services". Management's fiscal 2027 outlook is a core operating margin (non-GAAP) of 6.1% (release, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898293/000162828026063890/jbl-20260930ex991.htm). |
| Summary | FormFactor makes probe cards, the consumable interfaces used to test chips at wafer level, for foundry and logic customers and for DRAM including HBM. It also has a Systems business, whose co-packaged-optics probing products management said on the Q1 2026 call were ramping. TrendForce's June 2026 probe card reports name FormFactor, Technoprobe and MJC as the dominant suppliers. They say MEMS probes are now mainstream, with 'proprietary tip alloy formulas' the key differentiator. They describe consumable probe tips as 'a high-margin hardware subscription model', with order visibility stretching 'from one quarter to up to two years'. FormFactor is benefiting: Q2 2026 revenue was $258.2 million, up 31.9% year over year, and GAAP gross margin was 50.7% against 37.3% a year earlier. On the Q1 2026 call, management said a second HBM customer was increasing adoption of SmartMatrix, and that networking probe cards had made a leader in high-performance compute a 10% customer. The limits are competitive. TrendForce forecasts that Technoprobe will overtake FormFactor as the top global supplier in 2026, and says Taiwanese suppliers CHPT, MPI and WinWay are gaining share. Technoprobe's May 2026 presentation, citing Yole, puts its own share at 34% of the 2024 logic probe card market and 60% of MEMS logic probe cards. | Macronix is a Taiwanese integrated maker of non-volatile memory. It makes NOR Flash, SLC NAND, eMMC built on 2D MLC and 3D TLC NAND, and mask ROM, and runs a small foundry business. In 2025 NOR was 61% of revenue, ROM 16% and NAND 16% (annual report). The mix is shifting fast. TrendForce (2026-01-07) reports that Samsung's exit from MLC NAND leaves a niche in which Macronix has 'a competitive edge'. It also reports that Macronix 'has already scaled down some of its NOR Flash capacity' to make more MLC NAND. By 2Q26 NAND was 43% of revenue and NOR 48% (Taipei Times, 2026-07-30). TrendForce (2026-09-14) adds that Macronix is putting its new 12-inch capacity into NAND and eMMC, so its NOR bit growth trails its overall capacity growth. Its largest customer, a related party, accounted for 16.16% of 2025 revenue. The upcycle has turned results around. Revenue reached a record NT$19.13 billion in 2Q26 at a 64.4% gross margin, after net losses in 2024 and 2025. The verdict is no moat. Macronix is well placed in tight markets but trails Winbond and GigaDevice in NOR, and its recent profits come from a shortage that its rivals share. | Jabil provides engineering, manufacturing and supply chain services through three segments. Per its FY2025 10-K, Intelligent Infrastructure serves "capital equipment, cloud and data center infrastructure, and networking and communications" customers; Regulated Industries serves automotive and transportation, healthcare and packaging, and renewables and energy infrastructure; and Connected Living and Digital Commerce is focused on "digitalization and automation, including warehouse automation and robotics". AI demand now drives growth: the fiscal 2026 release (2026-09-30) reports net revenue of $36.0 billion, with the CEO saying Jabil "grew revenue 21%, expanded core operating margin 40 basis points", and on the Q4 FY2026 call management said "AI-related revenue was up 60% year-over-year", that Jabil "ended the year with four customers with AI related revenue above a billion dollars annually", and that it expects cloud and data center infrastructure revenue of "approximately $17.5 billion" in fiscal 2027. The 10-K shows the limits: the five largest customers were approximately 36% of fiscal 2025 revenue and one customer, reported primarily in Intelligent Infrastructure, 16%; manufacturing processes are "generally not subject to significant proprietary protection"; and competitors may "be willing or able to make sales or provide services at lower margins than we do". An independent tally (EMSNOW/in4ma, 2026-03-06) counts Jabil among the US "big four" EMS providers while putting Foxconn, Wistron, Quanta and Wiwynn at "nearly 57% of global EMS/ODM production". A large, fast-growing contractor without a protected position. |
| Chain position | A wafer-test consumables supplier between chipmakers and tester makers. Its customers include HBM and DRAM makers and foundry/logic chip designers. TrendForce's Part 1 report (2026-06-23) says 'Advantest and Teradyne have taken stakes in Technoprobe, FormFactor, and MJC, signaling accelerated vertical integration ahead.' | Upstream supplier of NOR Flash, SLC NAND, eMMC and ROM to makers of automotive, industrial, communication, server, medical and game products. Foundry services were 6.43% of 2025 revenue. | Contract manufacturer for cloud, networking, semiconductor-equipment, automotive, healthcare and consumer customers. On the Q4 FY2026 call management said "Others in the industry are building product companies around their own power and cooling platforms and asking customers to standardize on them. That's a legitimate model. Ours is different." |
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| Long-horizon vote | +0.13 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | -0.06 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | -0.06 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. |