Compare moats
Up to three covered companies, band by band. Every call is a curated editorial judgment, never a disclosed figure — and every band carries its cited basis.
| X-energy | Applied Digital | ASM International | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moat rating | narrow Real but unbuilt. The Q2 2026 10-Q shows the moat resting on regulatory standing rather than delivered product: the NRC completed the Environmental Assessment for the Dow Long Mott construction permit application on 18 May 2026 with a Finding of No Significant Impact, yet no Xe-100 has been constructed or operated and two counterparties supplied nearly all income, with the U.S. Government at 90.3% and Dow at 4.4% of total revenue and grant income for the three months ended 30 June 2026. | none The FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) shows contracted revenue, not a demonstrated competitive edge. About 1,410 MW is leased under 15-year take-or-pay, non-cancellable base terms worth about $36.2 billion, but only about 100 MW of the roughly 1.5 GW that is contracted and either operating or under construction was operating and earning revenue at May 31, 2026, and Item 1A says "lessees may have the right to terminate applicable leases if there are significant delays in construction." Item 1A also concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time," and the Competition section names 13 power-advantaged developers the company competes with. Signed leases give revenue visibility, but the filing does not show a durable advantage. | narrow The 2025 annual report (published 2026-03-12) says 'ASM is the leader in the fast-growing single-wafer ALD market – with a market share of 55%+ (ASM estimate, Investor Day 2025)'. It says ASM 'maintained leadership with our market share surpassing 55%' as the industry moved from FinFET to GAA. And it says that 'Based on the breadth of our R&D engagements and critical production-tool-of-record (PTOR) selections already secured in 2025, we expect to at least maintain our market share' into the 1.4nm node. The Q2 2026 results (https://www.asm.com/media/y0mkxj21/20260728-asm-reports-second-quarter-2026-results.pdf) say the 1.4nm node is on track for its first meaningful contribution in the second half of 2026, 'reflecting increased market share gains in both ALD and Epi'. 2025 gross margin was 51.8%. That is a strong, profitable position, but every share figure behind it is ASM's own estimate or expectation, and no independent share source supports it, so the rating is narrow rather than wide. The exposures also weigh: the five largest customers took about 53.6% of 2025 revenue and China more than 30%, and the report describes the main competitors as 'much larger companies from the United States and Asia'. |
| Moat type | intangibles ip The IPO prospectus describes an 'intellectual property-driven business model': revenue is to come from technology fees for licensing the proprietary Xe-100 design plus proprietary TRISO-X fuel, and the company states it will not construct, own or operate the power plants. The durable assets are therefore patents and NRC licences, not plant, installed base or scale. | none The 10-K claims three advantages: power-advantaged sites (it believes securing power and interconnection ahead of demand is 'the principal constraint on new HPC capacity and a core differentiator for us from many of our competitors'), a standardized 'franchise-style' design, and hyperscaler master service and master telecom service agreements 'that are difficult to obtain.' The filing does not show any of them to be durable. Its Competition section says competition 'centers on securing and developing sites with access to large-scale, reliable, and cost-competitive power and interconnection' and names 13 power-advantaged developers going after the same leases, and Item 1A concedes it lacks the resources to compete with larger providers. Signed leases are take-or-pay and non-cancellable, so a tenant leaving for convenience owes 'the full remaining contractual value,' but that is contractual lock-in on each lease rather than a moat source, so no moat type is assigned. | intangibles ip The report grounds the ALD lead in accumulated process know-how and patents rather than unit cost: 'ASM has the broadest portfolio of ALD products with innovative ALD reactor designs. Our strength in chemistries and applications using new materials means our customers can meet advanced node technology challenges.' It also cites a LexisNexis PatentSight study finding that 'ASM holds a strong and impactful patent portfolio on its core strength of ALD as measured by both Competitive Impact and Patent Asset Index'. Switching friction reinforces this. Tools enter fabs through PTOR selection, the report notes that 'Failing a customer during a production ramp could create significant problems for them', and installed systems are supported 'with a view to having them in production 24/7 for 20+ years'. But ASM wins those PTOR slots node by node on process capability, which makes IP the primary source. |
| Leadership | co leader The prospectus records X-energy as one of two awardees under the DOE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, and it holds the Oak Ridge HALEU fuel-fabrication licence; but it is not the NRC design-approval leader — the NRC issued a standard design approval to NuScale for the US460 small modular reactor, published at 90 FR / Federal Register document 2025-10123 on 4 June 2025, while the Xe-100 is being licensed indirectly through a customer's Part 50 construction permit and holds no design certification or approval of its own. | behind The 10-K makes no leadership claim and gives no ranking or share figure. Item 1A concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time" and that some rivals have "substantially greater liquidity and financial resources than we do." Its Competition section places APLD against established operators (Digital Realty, Equinix), hyperscalers that build their own capacity, independent developers and 13 named power-advantaged developers (IREN, Cipher Digital, TeraWulf, Hut 8, Riot, CleanSpark, HIVE, Core Scientific, Bitdeer, Galaxy Digital, Fermi, Keel Infrastructure, MARA). | co leader In single-wafer ALD, which is more than half of equipment sales, the report calls ASM 'the leader' with a 55%+ share. That share is ASM's own estimate; the Investor Day 2025 deck (https://www.asm.com/media/m3jhkm12/asm_investor_day_2025.pdf) sources it to 'ASM internal analysis and TechInsights'. With no independent share source, the band is held at co_leader rather than clear_leader. ASM does not lead every line: 'ASM has the number two share in the Epi equipment market', and in PECVD and vertical furnaces it is 'focused on niche portions of the market'. |
| Pricing power | weak Nothing has been priced in a market yet. The prospectus states the Xe-100 technology fee is a benchmarking assumption to be 'negotiated on a case by case basis' with no assurance customers will accept the proposed structure, and that Amazon holds first-priority manufacturing queue slots across 2031-2039, a right of first refusal and most-favoured pricing; the 10-Q records a 2025 warrant issued to a related-party customer with a $162.7 million grant-date fair value accounted for as consideration payable to a customer, i.e. a reduction of the transaction price. | weak Item 1A says "Due to the limited number of hyperscalers, we expect that a limited number of customers will continue to account for a high percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future," and that if customers' equipment usage declines or they discontinue use of its facilities, APLD "may be compelled to lower our lease prices in some instances or risk losing a significant customer." One customer was 59% of FY2026 revenue from continuing operations. Take-or-pay, non-cancellable terms protect contracted revenue over the base term, and Note 19 reports a $39.1M HPC Hosting segment profit on $385.3M of segment revenue in FY2026, but those terms are agreed with a small group of concentrated buyers. | moderate Gross margin rose from 50.5% to 51.8% in 2025 and was 51.9% in Q2 2026. But the report attributes the 2025 gain to 'a very strong mix, including a continued solid contribution from the Chinese market' and to efficiency programs, not to price. It targets a range of 47% to 51% for 2026-2030, and the Q2 2026 release expects full-year 2026 gross margin 'to be around 51%'. Buyers are concentrated: the 10 largest customers were about 72.3% of 2025 revenue, the five largest about 53.6%, and two customers each contributed more than 10% of total revenue. |
| Summary | X-energy's defensible assets today are regulatory and intellectual, not commercial. NRC Special Nuclear Material Licence SNM-7007, issued 13 February 2026 for a 40-year licence period, authorises HALEU fuel manufacture at Oak Ridge, and the company's own prospectus calls it the first-ever Category II nuclear fuel facility licensed in the United States; the Long Mott construction permit application for four Xe-100 reactors has reached its uncontested mandatory NRC hearing, scheduled for 22 September 2026. Neither has yet produced a reactor or a commercial fuel pebble: the prospectus expects TX-1 to be completed in the first half of 2028, and the 10-Q describes present revenue as derived from cost-share agreements such as the DOE ARDP. The HALEU feedstock the fuel depends on is a live dependency rather than a settled advantage — the prospectus states HALEU enrichment services are available only in limited quantities globally and that customers procure the feedstock, and the 10-Q discloses a definitive enrichment agreement with Centrus Energy announced 6 August 2026 under a phased approach with prepayments by X-energy to support Centrus's domestic capacity programme. | Applied Digital designs, builds and operates purpose-built, liquid-cooled HPC data centers, which it calls 'AI factories', and leases the capacity to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers. At May 31, 2026 its 10-K lists five campuses (Polaris Forge 1-3 and Delta Forge 1-2) with about 1,410 MW contracted under roughly 15-year take-or-pay, non-cancellable leases worth about $36.2 billion over the base terms. The filing claims three sources of advantage: it controls power-advantaged sites, it uses a standardized 'franchise-style' design built to deliver about 150 MW in about 14 to 18 months, and it holds hyperscaler master agreements that are 'difficult to obtain.' The same document shows how early the company is. About 100 MW was operating and earning revenue. One customer was 59% of FY2026 revenue from continuing operations. It competes with Digital Realty, Equinix, hyperscalers that build their own capacity and 13 named power-advantaged developers, and it concedes that it lacks the resources to compete with larger providers. Signed leases give long-dated revenue visibility, but the filing does not show a durable competitive advantage. | ASM International, headquartered in the Netherlands, makes wafer-processing equipment with a focus on deposition: single-wafer ALD, silicon epitaxy, PECVD, vertical furnaces, silicon-carbide epitaxy and, since its acquisition of Axus in December 2025, CMP. Spares & Services made up 23% of 2025 revenue. ALD is the core. It was the largest product line, 'clearly accounting for more than half of our equipment sales', and ASM estimates its single-wafer ALD share at 55%+. The report frames ALD as increasingly necessary, saying 'ALD is the only deposition technology capable of meeting the coverage and film-property requirements for complex 3D structures', and expects ALD layers to grow in GAA transistor stacks, backside-power architectures and future 4F² DRAM. Epitaxy is the second-largest line: the report says ASM holds the number two share there and lifted its leading-edge share from 12% in 2020 to 25% in 2024, both by ASM's own figures. 2025 revenue reached a record €3.2 billion at a gross margin of 51.8%; per the Q2 2026 results, Q2 2026 revenue was €1,003 million at 51.9%. The exposures are customer concentration (the five largest customers were about 53.6% of 2025 revenue), geography (Asia was 80% of revenue and China more than 30%), and export restrictions that the report says are 'impacting our ability to sell and service systems in certain jurisdictions and for certain customers'. |
| Chain position | Upstream supplier of reactor technology and TRISO fuel to industrial-heat and data-centre power buyers; it licenses the design and fabricates the fuel rather than owning or operating the plants. | Developer and landlord of power-advantaged, liquid-cooled AI data-center capacity, leased long-term to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers. | Upstream wafer-fab-equipment supplier to logic/foundry and memory chipmakers. 'The leading-edge logic/foundry market was the main growth driver for ASM, on the back of 2nm investments' in 2025, advanced-node DRAM was the largest part of memory sales, and Asia was 80% of revenue. |
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| Long-horizon vote | +0.05 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | -0.20 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | +0.13 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. |