Applied OptoelectronicsShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-05Neutral
Structural set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a negative tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.04
.00
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›✓Driver›✓Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 10.2 (falling -7.0 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.335
Industry Index falling -7.0 [no link]−0.24135%
Industry Index level 10.2 [no link]−0.09414%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.335
📉
Price momentum Bullish
Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.54, confidence 0.22 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
+0.210
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]+0.06910%
Momentum (short) [no link]+0.0396%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0314%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]+0.0304%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]+0.0243%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]+0.0203%
Stochastic (short) [no link]+0.0193%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]+0.0183%
OBV (short) [no link]+0.0101%
RSI trend (short) [no link]+0.0071%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]+0.0061%
ADX 13 (trend strength 0.32) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 1.15 (extreme 0.15) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 61 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to +0.210
⚖️
Options positioning Bullish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 85% / put 15% (net skew 0.69), unusualness 39/100. No known catalyst (unexplained — not proof of informed trading).
+0.088
▸1 item(s) · sums to +0.088
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.04.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.036
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.04
→
Conviction
0.00
A mildly-negative score, but weak agreement — so the engine returns a no-conviction Neutral rather than overclaim. This is the system refusing to force a call it doesn’t have.
as of 2026-10-05 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26