networking & interconnect · Industry Index 9 (rank #148) ·
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-08-06 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Applied Optoelectronics manufactures optical transceivers, lasers, and components for datacenter, cable-TV, and telecom networks.
Industry exposure 0.5 (Applied Optoelectronics' datacenter transceiver business for hyperscalers is AI-driven, but it retains a sizable cable-TV segment.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:earnings in 6 days
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $55 PUT | 50 | sell-side | +34 | 822 | 5.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $60 PUT | 44 | mid-market · no side | +93 | 483 | 1.7× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $80 CALL | 42 | mid-market · no side | +21 | 524 | 0.8× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $70 CALL | 36 | mid-market · no side | +6 | 768 | 3.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $65 PUT | 36 | mid-market · no side | +19 | 269 | 0.6× |
15 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 1.3× its 13-day baseline
13% calls / 87% puts (by premium)
Structural led a bearish call; the other agents split, so conviction reflects the disagreement.
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.67.
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.42 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
AOI is a vertically integrated fiber-optics maker whose FY2025 revenue of $455.7M split 53.8% CATV and 42.9% internet datacenter (FY2025 10-K). Its defensible core is laser-fab process IP (MBE+MOCVD, all chips made in Sugar Land) plus highly automated U.S. module production the 10-K pitches as a supply-chain-security advantage. The AI datacenter line is ramping hard — Q2 2026 was a fifth consecutive record revenue quarter at $191.9M with 800G shipments more than doubling sequentially and demand forecast to outpace capacity through mid-2027 (Q2 2026 release) — but AAOI is absent from LightCounting's list of vendors that set records in the $23.8B 2025 transceiver market (InnoLight, Coherent, Eoptolink), so it ramps as a challenger, not a leader. The moat is narrow and concentration-risked: Digicomm was 53.1% and Microsoft 28.8% of 2025 revenue (10-K).
Rating: narrow
FY2025 10-K (Item 1, 'Our Technology' and 'Competition'): AOI is vertically integrated down to its own laser chips, fabricated exclusively in Sugar Land, TX with a combined MBE+MOCVD process it believes is 'unique in our industry' and 'difficult and time-consuming for other vendors to replicate'; the same filing calls the optical networking market 'intensely competitive' with larger, better-resourced rivals (Coherent, InnoLight, Eoptolink, Lumentum et al.), so the process edge is real but not dominant — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
Type: intangibles ip
FY2025 10-K (Item 1, 'Our Technology' / 'Intellectual Property'): the differentiation the company itself leads with is process know-how — proprietary MBE laser fabrication combined with MOCVD ('to our knowledge, we are unique in incorporating MBE processes in the production of communications lasers in high volume'), 199 issued U.S. patents plus 140 in China/Taiwan, and explicit reliance on unpatented trade secrets — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
Leadership: fast follower
Bifurcated: the FY2025 10-K self-describes an 'industry-leading position in the CATV market' serving 'a majority of the largest CATV equipment manufacturers,' but in datacenter optics — its AI-relevant line — AAOI is not among the vendors LightCounting's March 2026 quarterly update credits with record 2025 results (InnoLight, Coherent, Eoptolink, Fabrinet, Lumentum), so company-level it reads as a fast follower chasing the 800G/1.6T leaders — https://www.lightcounting.com/newsletter/en/march-2026-quarterly-market-update-380
Pricing power: moderate
FY2025 10-K (MD&A cost/pricing discussion): gross margin fluctuates with 'decreases in average selling prices,' but in CATV — 53.8% of 2025 revenue — the company states 'we believe we face less downward price pressure than many of our competitors' due to the value of its outsourced design services; FY2025 gross margin was 30.0%, up from 24.8% in 2024 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: networking & interconnect
Upstream optics supplier to the AI buildout: sells 800G/1.6T transceivers into hyperscale datacenters (Microsoft was 28.8% of 2025 revenue; Oracle 12.4% in 2024) and lasers/turn-key HFC equipment into CATV via distributor Digicomm (53.1% of 2025 revenue), per the FY2025 10-K — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.06 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score 0.10, conviction 0).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| 800G/1.6T datacenter optical transceivers · datacenter optics Optical transceivers (built on in-house lasers and 'light engine' subassemblies) that plug into hyperscaler switches and servers; the company's fastest-growing line, aimed at AI cluster interconnect at 800 Gbps and above. | Challenger LightCounting's March 2026 update names InnoLight, Coherent, Eoptolink, Fabrinet and Lumentum as the record-setters in the $23.8B (+55% YoY) 2025 transceiver market without mentioning AAOI (https://www.lightcounting.com/newsletter/en/march-2026-quarterly-market-update-380); AOI's Q2 2026 release shows a fast ramp from a smaller base — 800G volume more than doubled sequentially, total capacity approaching 200,000 units/month with ~650,000/month of 800G+1.6T targeted by end of 2026. | Moderate In-house laser chips and light-engine manufacturing plus highly automated production give an integration and scale-up edge the FY2025 10-K says many competitors lack, but several larger rivals ship the same speed classes at greater volume (10-K 'Competition'). |
| Quantum Bandwidth CATV amplifiers, nodes and headend equipment · CATV / HFC access networks Own-branded (since 2023) DOCSIS 4.0 / 1.8 GHz line — amplifiers, nodes, transmitters and headend gear — sold directly to cable MSOs as well as through equipment vendors; nearly all CATV equipment sold in 2025 meets DOCSIS 4.0 standards per the FY2025 10-K. | Top 3 Self-reported basis: the FY2025 10-K claims an 'industry-leading position in the CATV market' serving a majority of the largest CATV equipment makers, and CATV was 53.8% of 2025 revenue; no independent tracker share figure for AOI was found — Dell'Oro sizes the cycle (2026 outside-plant revenue +20% YoY, ~10M new amplifiers through 2028, per its July 30, 2026 release: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cable-operators-accelerate-outside-plant-investments-record-spending-on-amplifiers-expected-according-to-delloro-group-302838555.html) without publishing vendor shares. | Moderate Mixed-signal analog+digital design depth and decades of outsourced-design relationships with CATV equipment vendors, per the FY2025 10-K; Q2 2026 release cites 'high-volume adoption of our 1.8 GHz CATV products.' |
| Semiconductor lasers and light engines · optical components Analog and digital laser chips (fabricated solely in Sugar Land, TX via proprietary MBE + MOCVD) and co-packaged light-engine subassemblies used in the company's own transceivers and sold to third parties. | Unknown No tracker share figure found for merchant laser/component sales; the FY2025 10-K notes most output is consumed internally in AOI's own modules. | Deep FY2025 10-K: 'to our knowledge, we are unique in incorporating MBE processes in the production of communications lasers in high volume, and believe it would be difficult and time-consuming for other vendors to replicate our production technology'; U.S.-domiciled fab is also pitched as a supply-chain advantage. |
| Telecom and FTTH lasers and transceivers · telecom / access optics WDM lasers, subassemblies and transceivers for 5G fronthaul/backhaul NEMs plus PON portfolio (XGS-PON, 25G/50G PON development) for fiber-to-the-home deployments. | Niche FY2025 10-K attributes 53.8% of 2025 revenue to CATV and 42.9% to datacenter, leaving telecom+FTTH only the small remainder of the $455.7M total. | Low Products here are largely merchant lasers/transceivers sold to NEMs and other transceiver makers in commoditized access markets, per the FY2025 10-K market descriptions. |
These charts plot Applied Optoelectronics's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-08-06. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at a loss of $38.2M in FY2025.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 0.14 (USD 0.10–USD 0.19) · 6 | USD 268109400.00 (USD 260747000.00–USD 274700000.00) · 5 | +126% |
| FY 2026 | USD 0.68 (USD 0.47–USD 0.85) · 6 | USD 1.0B (USD 1.0B–USD 1.1B) · 5 | +128% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-11-05.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 6,450,270 | $955.7M | -742,059 | 0.0% | 7.60% |
| State Street Passive / index | 1,497,617 | $221.9M | -146,676 | 0.0% | 1.76% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 17,118 | $2.5M | -550 | 0.0% | 0.02% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
Google News: Applied Optoelectronics · 2026-07-15 · funding
Applied Optoelectronics shares rallied on news of a Texas manufacturing expansion tied to AI optics demand.
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: AAOI · Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock Looks Discounted On Its Huge Three Year Run
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Lumentum Jumps 8% as StoneX Starts Coverage With $1,200 Target; Applied Optoelectronics and Coherent Climb 6%
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: AAOI · Optics Stocks Tumble as Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of Earnings: Coherent Tumbles 12%, Applied Optoelectronics Drops 10%, Lumentum Falls 9%
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: FN · Applied Optoelectronics Cratered 50% Over 6 Months: It’s Going to Triple According to 2 Wall Street Pros
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: AVGO · Applied Optoelectronics Stock Fell 12% on Hot Inflation. Opportunity or Falling Knife?
2026-10-14 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Dives 9% as AI Funding Fears Hit Optical Stocks; Coherent Slides 7%, Lumentum Drops 7%
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Is Up 175% in 2026 and Lumentum Is Up 164%: Take Profits, or Hold On for the Ride?
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: LITE · One Reason To Buy Applied Optoelectronics Stock Now
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: LITE · Optics Stocks Rally on Sold-Out Optical Capacity Through Early 2029: Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum Surge 7%, Coherent Climbs 5%
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: FN · Applied Optoelectronics Has Fallen Hard for 6 Months: This Wall Street Analyst Expects It’s Going to Double Soon
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Optics Stocks Tumble as Profit Taking Cuts Into Big Yearly Gains: Applied Optoelectronics Drops 9%, Coherent Falls 5%, Lumentum Slides 4%
2026-10-07 Yahoo Finance: FN · AAOI Stock Gains 17% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?
2026-10-02 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Is Unstoppable: Up 8% Today and 231% This Year, Is AAOI Stock Too Hot to Handle Now?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Is Up 205% This Year. Is It Too Late to Buy AAOI Stock Now?
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | earnings | Applied Optoelectronics earnings — Company-confirmed date. confirmed | Medium |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Applied Optoelectronics earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · Rev beat · +9.2% |
| 2026-05-07 | Applied Optoelectronics earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS miss · -5.5% |
