ASMPTShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-09Bearish
Structural carried this call — it supplied almost the entire lean; the other voters nearly net out.
Coverage
2/7
Agreement
0.50
.24
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 7.5 (falling -8.3 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.469
Industry Index falling -8.3 [no link]−0.34454%
Industry Index level 7.5 [no link]−0.12520%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.469
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.14, confidence 0.23 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.069
▸Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.0518%
Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]+0.0386%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0254%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0193%
OBV (short) [no link]+0.0132%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0081%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0081%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]−0.0041%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0031%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0000%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0000%
ADX 12 (trend strength 0.31) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.34 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 46 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.069
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
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⚖️
Options positioning Abstained
no liquid options snapshot
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
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Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.50.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.538
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.50
→
Conviction
0.24
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.24 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-09 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26