OracleShort · ~2 weeksas of 2026-10-05Bearish
Structural carried this call — it supplied almost the entire lean; the other voters nearly net out.
Coverage
3/7
Agreement
0.67
.21
Conviction
How the swarm reasoned
✓Question›✓Coverage›3Driver›4Consensus›5Gate›6Verdict
🧭
Structural Driver
Industry Index 19.9 (falling -3.4 over window) — structural headwind.
−0.185
Industry Index falling -3.4 [no link]−0.11437%
Industry Index level 19.9 [no link]−0.07023%
2 item(s) · sums to -0.185
📉
Price momentum Bearish
Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.28, confidence 0.23 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).
−0.117
▸Moving-average trend (medium) [no link]−0.05016%
Momentum (medium) [no link]−0.03913%
OBV (short) [no link]−0.0103%
MACD histogram (medium) [no link]−0.0072%
MACD histogram (short) [no link]−0.0062%
ADX / DMI (medium) [no link]+0.0052%
Bollinger %B (short) [no link]−0.0041%
Momentum (short) [no link]−0.0021%
Moving-average trend (short) [no link]−0.0010%
RSI trend (short) [no link]−0.0010%
Stochastic (short) [no link]−0.0000%
ADX 11 (trend strength 0.29) [no link]0.0000%
Bollinger %B 0.41 (extreme 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
RSI 49 (overextension penalty 0.00) [no link]0.0000%
14 item(s) · sums to -0.117
⚖️
Options positioning Bearish
Delayed per-contract options — call premium 50% / put 50% (net skew -0.01), unusualness 36/100. No known catalyst (unexplained — not proof of informed trading).
−0.001
▸1 item(s) · sums to -0.001
📰
News Abstained
no recent news
—
📈
Growth Abstained
Fundamentals inform the ~3-month call, not a 2-week move.
—
🏦
Smart money Abstained
13F filings move too slowly for a 2-week call.
—
🏰
Moat Abstained
The moat prior is a ~6-month structural view, not a 2-week move.
—
Consensus · did they agree?
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.67.
The gate · score → conviction → verdict
Raw score
−0.302
×
Agree·cover·strength
0.67
→
Conviction
0.21
A clear bearish score; conviction 0.21 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
as of 2026-10-05 · config sig-v4-2026-07-26