foundation models · 产业指数 10 (排名 #119) ·
价格: 截至 2026-10-09 指数: 截至 2026-10-12 基本面: 最新申报文件 2025-12-31 按季披露（财务数据来自 Yahoo Finance；未在 SEC 注册）
Chinese AI company that develops multimodal large language models and consumer AI apps, listed in Hong Kong (0100.HK).
产业敞口 1.0 (Pure-play Chinese multimodal AI developer dependent on large-scale compute.)
异常期权活动需要一个在美国上市的品种；这家公司没有。
价格动量 定下了基调，但群体不愿下结论——负向倾斜叠加薄弱的一致度，因此结论为中性。
多数投票者倾向一致；价格动量 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.17。
一个明确的中性分数；置信度 0.01 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
MiniMax develops models across language, video, speech and music and sells them through its Open Platform and its own consumer apps, including MiniMax Agent, Hailuo AI, Talkie and Xingye; it listed in Hong Kong in January 2026 as a Specialist Technology Company under Chapter 18C of the Listing Rules. Growth has been steep. Per its interim results announcement, revenue in the six months to 2026-06-30 was US$116.6 million, more than its US$79.0 million for all of 2025; Open Platform and other AI-based enterprise services revenue rose 703.1% to US$73.9 million, 63.4% of the total, on API call volumes and "the rapid adoption of our Token Plan"; and 60.8% of revenue came from outside Chinese mainland. Independent trackers show a mixed technical position. On Artificial Analysis's text-to-video leaderboard (read 2026-10-10), MiniMax H3 (768p) ranks fourth with an Elo of 1137, behind Alibaba's Wan 3.0, Utopai X and ByteDance Seed's Dreamina Seedance 2.5. In its text-to-speech leaderboard, read the same day, MiniMax's highest-ranked model, Speech 2.8 HD, is 19th. On its language-model Intelligence Index, also read 2026-10-10, MiniMax-M3 scores 29, behind the latest models from Z AI, Kimi, Alibaba, Xiaomi and DeepSeek, and OpenRouter's top 20 models by weekly usage, as read 2026-10-10 (usage data through Oct 9, 2026), include none from MiniMax. The economics remain heavy: a loss of US$358.0 million in the half, research and development spending of US$296.9 million driven mainly by cloud services for training, and a July 2026 placing of new shares alongside a convertible bond issue, whose announcement says "prices of high-performance computing hardware have continued to rise amid industry-wide supply constraints in 2026". MiniMax is a fast-growing multimodal lab without a moat: its best ranking is in video, where it publishes the weights, and its language models trail Chinese rivals.
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MiniMax is growing fast at a heavy loss, with nothing yet shown to protect its position. Its interim results announcement for the six months to 2026-06-30 reports revenue of US$116.6 million, up 283.1%, against a loss for the period of US$358.0 million and research and development expenses of US$296.9 million, with gross profit margin at 17.9%. Its prospectus (https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1231/2025123100025.pdf) warns that competition may make it "more difficult for us to differentiate our products, maintain pricing power, and achieve sustainable profitability". Independent trackers show its standing has to be won again with each release. The prospectus says MiniMax-M2 became "a top three foundation model worldwide by daily token usage on OpenRouter" within the first week of its October 2025 launch, yet OpenRouter's rankings (https://openrouter.ai/rankings, as read 2026-10-10, usage data through Oct 9, 2026) list no MiniMax model among the top 20 by weekly usage. Artificial Analysis's leaderboard (https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models, read 2026-10-10) scores MiniMax-M3 at 29 on its Intelligence Index, against 45 for Z AI's GLM-5.3 (max) and 44 for Kimi K3 (max). A loss-making developer whose usage rank resets with each model cycle has no moat yet.
类型: 无
None of the usual sources of a moat is established in the record. Much of the technology is published: the prospectus says MiniMax makes "certain of our models and products available on an open-source basis", which allows "third parties, including competitors, to access, use, modify, or redistribute them, which could limit our ability to commercialize those technologies or differentiate ourselves in the marketplace", and the interim results say MiniMax H3 was released "with open weights". On Artificial Analysis's video leaderboard (https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/leaderboard/text-to-video, read 2026-10-10), the entry ranked just below MiniMax's own H3 is "MiniMax H3 Max", listed under the creator Fal and marked "Based on MiniMax H3". On the API side, KrASIA's report on IDC data (https://kr-asia.com/how-bytedances-volcano-engine-holds-nearly-half-of-chinas-maas-market, 2026-05-13) notes that "In theory, developers only needed to change a few lines of code to replace the underlying model or switch cloud platforms", though it reports that the market leader, ByteDance's Volcano Engine, held its share in 2025, at 49.5%; it does not name MiniMax. Scale belongs to others: CIC, the industry consultant MiniMax commissioned, ranked it tenth among global foundation model companies by 2024 model-based revenue, "with a market share of 0.3%", and the prospectus concedes that many competitors have "greater access to data, talent, and computing infrastructure".
领先地位: 落后
Independent rankings put MiniMax behind the leading Chinese labs in language and speech, and near the front only in video. Artificial Analysis's text-to-video leaderboard (https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/leaderboard/text-to-video, read 2026-10-10) shows MiniMax H3 (768p) fourth with an Elo of 1137, against 1156 for Alibaba's Wan 3.0. Its language-model leaderboard (https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models, read 2026-10-10) scores MiniMax-M3 at 29 on the Intelligence Index, against 46 for Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.6-Pro, 45 for Z AI's GLM-5.3 (max) and Alibaba's Qwen3.8 Max (0902), 44 for Kimi K3 (max) and 39 for DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (max), and its text-to-speech leaderboard, read the same day, ranks Speech 2.8 HD 19th. OpenRouter's top 20 models by weekly usage, as read 2026-10-10 (usage data through Oct 9, 2026; https://openrouter.ai/rankings), include models from DeepSeek, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Tencent, Moonshot AI and StepFun, but none from MiniMax. The only revenue ranking is commissioned: CIC put MiniMax tenth among foundation model companies globally by 2024 model-based revenue, "with a market share of 0.3%", and fourth among pureplay foundation model companies. One near-front video model does not offset a language model scoring 29 against 44 to 46 for the best Chinese rivals, no top-20 usage, a 19th-ranked speech model and a 0.3% revenue share: MiniMax is behind the leaders, not at parity with them.
定价权: 弱
MiniMax competes on price and its margin is thin. Gross profit margin was 17.9% in the six months to 2026-06-30, up from 12.1%, which the interim results put down to "improving infrastructure efficiency". Its annual results announcement (https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0302/2026030202837.pdf) sells M2.5 on cost, saying that running it "continuously for one hour at an output speed of 100 tokens per second costs only one U.S. dollar". Artificial Analysis's video leaderboard, as read 2026-10-10, lists API pricing of $4.80 per minute for MiniMax H3 (768p), against $12.00 for Wan 3.0 and $34.12 for Dreamina Seedance 2.5. The prospectus says "our models' competitiveness, is directly related to our models' market pricing and demand" and warns that "we may be required to reduce our prices or offer alternative pricing models", and the July 2026 placing announcement says "prices of high-performance computing hardware have continued to rise".
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：www1.hkexnews.hk
层级: foundation models
MiniMax is a model layer that rents its compute. The prospectus defines its AI infrastructure as mainly "computing services purchased from third-party cloud service providers, namely computing power, storage and network capacity that we rent from external cloud platforms instead of building and owning all the servers ourselves", and says its "upstream ecosystem includes major cloud service providers and infrastructure vendors". Downstream it sells model access to enterprises and developers through its Open Platform and runs consumer apps; 60.8% of revenue in the first half of 2026 came from outside Chinese mainland.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 -0.20 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 bullish（得分 0.41，信念度 50）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| AI-native consumer apps (Hailuo AI, Talkie/Xingye, MiniMax Agent) · Consumer AI apps Consumer apps for video creation (Hailuo AI), AI entertainment and companionship (Talkie/Xingye) and agents (MiniMax Agent), monetised through subscriptions, in-app purchases and online marketing; AI-native products revenue was US$42.6 million, 36.6% of the total, in the six months to 2026-06-30, up 100.9%. | 未知 The only rankings come from the consultant MiniMax commissioned: CIC calls Talkie/Xingye "the second-largest AI-native entertainment platform globally in terms of average MAU in the nine months ended September 30, 2025". The prospectus says CIC was commissioned to produce its report "at a fee of US$115,000", and no independent tracker was read for these apps, so the share band is left unknown. | 低 The apps depend on third-party distribution: the prospectus records that a prior version of Talkie was "temporarily removed from Apple's App Store in certain jurisdictions for a period of approximately two months" from December 2024, during which its average daily downloads fell by approximately 16.8 thousand. It also warns that "as our competitors introduce new products that compete with ours or reduce their prices", MiniMax "may be unable to attract new users or retain existing users based on our historical pricing models". |
| Hailuo video generation models (MiniMax H3) · AI video generation models Video generation models used in the Hailuo AI app and offered to developers; MiniMax H3 was released with open weights shortly after 2026-06-30, per the interim results, and Artificial Analysis lists its release as July 2026. | 未知 Artificial Analysis's text-to-video leaderboard (read 2026-10-10), which ranks models by viewers' preferences between videos shown without the provider's name, places MiniMax H3 (768p) fourth with an Elo of 1137 from 8,315 appearances, behind Alibaba's Wan 3.0 (1156), Utopai Studios' Utopai X (1149) and ByteDance Seed's Dreamina Seedance 2.5 (1143). That is a quality ranking rather than a market share, and no usage or revenue share for MiniMax's video models was read, so the share band is left unknown. | 低 H3's weights are published: the leaderboard, as read 2026-10-10, links it to a Hugging Face repository (https://huggingface.co/MiniMaxAI/MiniMax-H3), and the next-ranked entry, "MiniMax H3 Max", is listed under the creator Fal and marked "Based on MiniMax H3". Models from nine different creators fill the leaderboard's top ten, including Alibaba, ByteDance Seed, Google and Black Forest Labs. |
| Open Platform and API (MiniMax M-series models, Token Plan) · Model-as-a-Service / LLM API Usage-based access to MiniMax's core models for enterprises and developers through its Open Platform, plus the Token Plan; Open Platform and other AI-based enterprise services revenue was US$73.9 million, 63.4% of the total, in the six months to 2026-06-30, up 703.1%. | 细分市场 OpenRouter's rankings page (as read 2026-10-10, usage data through Oct 9, 2026) lists its top 20 models by weekly tokens processed, and none is from MiniMax, although the prospectus says MiniMax-M2 was "a top three foundation model worldwide by daily token usage on OpenRouter" in the first week after its October 2025 launch, and the annual results describe M2.5 "quickly topping the OpenRouter rankings" after its February 2026 release. CIC, the industry consultant MiniMax commissioned, put it tenth among global foundation model companies by 2024 model-based revenue, "with a market share of 0.3%". In China, IDC data reported by KrASIA (2026-05-13) put ByteDance's Volcano Engine at 49.5% of the model-as-a-service market in 2025, without naming MiniMax. A 0.3% revenue share and no current top-20 usage rank make this a niche position. | 低 Artificial Analysis's leaderboard (https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models, read 2026-10-10) scores MiniMax-M3 at 29 on its Intelligence Index, below the latest models from Z AI, Kimi, Alibaba, Xiaomi and DeepSeek. KrASIA's report on IDC data notes that "In theory, developers only needed to change a few lines of code to replace the underlying model or switch cloud platforms", though it finds the leader, Volcano Engine, held its share in 2025, and the prospectus warns that "our competitors may develop their own products using our open-source technology to compete with us". |
这些图表绘制的是 MiniMax 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2025-12-31）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，FY2025 净亏损 $1.9B。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-10-12。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 | USD -2.11 (USD -2.31–USD -1.82) · 12 | USD 452158660.00 (USD 228000000.00–USD 594000000.00) · 23 | +472% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
部分近期数字来自 Yahoo Finance，用于填补最新 SEC 申报尚未发布的期间——已折算为美元，并与 SEC 申报期间做过核对。
正在与同业比较…
MiniMax · 2026-07-31 · 产品
MiniMax released H3, a model that understands unified context across text, images, video and audio, and generates video with native stereo sound up to 15 seconds at 2K resolution. MiniMax says H3 breaks the boundaries between tasks and modalities.
Google News: MiniMax · 2026-07-15 · 产品
MiniMax launched a new AI model, M3, which it claims can outperform GPT-5.5 at coding.
Google News: MiniMax · 2026-07-13 · 融资
MiniMax shares slid 18% as JPMorgan cut its price target amid a reported $2 billion capital raise.
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | MiniMax earnings 已确认 | 中 | 结果待定 |
