Zhipu AI (2513.HK) ☆

Zhipu (Knowledge Atlas Technology, marketed as Z.ai) is a Tsinghua University spinoff that develops the GLM family of large models; it listed in Hong Kong in January 2026 under Chapter 18C of the Listing Rules, the regime for specialist technology companies. Its business turned over within a year. In the six months to 2026-06-30, per its interim results announcement, open platform and API revenue was RMB825.2 million, 86.5% of the total against 15.2% a year earlier, while on-premise deployment revenue fell 20.5% to RMB128.7 million; the company says it "proactively scaled back its on-premise model software licensing business". The demand behind that shift rests on model capability, which independent trackers rate highly: Let's Data Science (2026-06-27) reports that on Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index GLM-5.2 "is now the top-ranked open-weights model overall and sits fourth on the full leaderboard", and OpenRouter said GLM 5.2 "has had a very fast uptake relative to most open-weight launches" (Gigazine, 2026-06-23). The same reports tie part of that uptake to timing: GLM-5.2 "landed days after U.S. export controls forced Anthropic to pull Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 worldwide in mid-June". What the record does not show is protection. The weights are MIT-licensed and can be self-hosted; China's MaaS market was led by Volcano Engine at 49.5% in 2025 per IDC (KrASIA); Reuters reports rivals cutting prices and racing to launch models; and Zhipu lost RMB2,071,992 thousand in the half while spending RMB2,131,171 thousand on R&D, with group gross margin down to 26.4% from 50.0%. It was also added to the US Entity List on January 16, 2025, and now runs inference "across a cluster of over 100,000 domestic chips". Zhipu is a leading open-weight lab whose position has to be won again with each release, at a loss, so it has no moat yet.

评级: 无

The record shows a frontier-grade model developer with nothing yet protecting its profits. Zhipu's interim results announcement for the six months to 2026-06-30 reports revenue of RMB953.9 million against a loss for the period of RMB2,071,992 thousand and R&D expenses of RMB2,131,171 thousand, and says gross profit margin fell from 50.0% to 26.4% as lower-margin cloud revenue grew. Its prospectus (https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1230/2025123000017.pdf) warns that "even if our models are more advanced, effective and cost-efficient than those of our competitors, current or potential customers may accept competitors' models in lieu of ours", and that competition "may also result in continued pricing pressures". Reuters, via The Standard (https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/341440/Chinas-Zhipu-AI-revenue-quintuples-in-first-half-loss-narrows, 2026-08-31), reports rivals including Alibaba, ByteDance and Moonshot "cutting prices and racing to launch new models". KrASIA's report on IDC data (https://kr-asia.com/how-bytedances-volcano-engine-holds-nearly-half-of-chinas-maas-market) finds that the share which held in China's model-as-a-service market in 2025 was ByteDance's Volcano Engine's, credits that to scale, and adds that "For followers that lack economies of scale, matching low prices often means greater cost pressure and may even lead to losses." A capability lead that has to be won again with each model release, while the company runs at a heavy loss, is not yet a moat.

类型: 无

None of the usual moat sources is established in the record. The intellectual property is given away by design: DataNorth (https://datanorth.ai/news/zhipu-ai-releases-glm-5-2, 2026-06-18) reports GLM-5.2 is "released under an MIT license with no regional limits, which permits self-hosting, fine-tuning, and commercial use". The API side shows no lock-in of Zhipu's own: KrASIA recalls that MaaS "was once believed to be a space where large model APIs would have limited stickiness" because "developers only needed to change a few lines of code to replace the underlying model or switch cloud platforms", and although it reports IDC data showing the leader's share holding and says MaaS is becoming enterprise infrastructure "with stronger stickiness", it puts that leader's hold down to call volume, inference engineering and model capability. The on-premise line, where installed deployments would create lock-in, is shrinking: the interim results report enterprise-level general-purpose large model revenue down 54.6% and say some of those customers "gradually migrated to Open Platform and API services". Scale belongs to others in China's MaaS market, where IDC put Volcano Engine's 2025 share at 49.5%. What Zhipu does have is the R&D capability to ship leading open-weight models repeatedly, which is a capability lead rather than a structural moat.

领先地位: 快速追随者

Independent trackers put its models at the top of the open-weight field, but not at the top of the market. Let's Data Science (https://www.letsdatascience.com/news/chinese-models-narrow-gap-with-anthropic-and-openai-98f17c4b, 2026-06-27), summarising Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index, says GLM-5.2 "is now the top-ranked open-weights model overall and sits fourth on the full leaderboard behind Claude Fable 5, Opus 4.8, and GPT-5.5". Reuters, via The Standard (https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/328208/Chinas-Zhipu-posts-132-percent-rise-in-annual-revenue-on-AI-boom, 2026-03-31), calls Zhipu "One of the leading players in China's crowded artificial intelligence sector" and names MiniMax, Moonshot AI, DeepSeek, ByteDance and Alibaba as competitors. The prospectus cites Frost & Sullivan, its commissioned industry consultant, ranking it "first among China's independent developers and second among all developers of general-purpose large models with a market share of 6.6% in terms of revenue in 2024", behind a non-independent provider at 9.4%. That ranking was commissioned and covers 2024, and in China's MaaS market IDC put Volcano Engine at 49.5% in 2025 (KrASIA). Independent trackers put its model at the front of the open-weight field but behind three US closed models, and the only ranking that puts Zhipu near the top of the market by revenue was commissioned and covers 2024, so the band is fast follower rather than co-leader.

定价权: 弱

Zhipu reports raising prices from a low base, but the margin record does not yet show pricing power. The interim results announcement says that "the average API selling price increased by approximately 101%, and Coding Plan subscription prices also went up" while MaaS token invocation volume "had increased over 40 times from the beginning of 2026", and that open platform and API gross margin rose to 24.6%. Those are the company's own figures, an average selling price the announcement does not break down by model, and they coincide with a supply gap: Let's Data Science reports GLM-5.2 "landed days after U.S. export controls forced Anthropic to pull Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 worldwide in mid-June". The product is still sold at a discount: DataNorth reports an API price "which Z.ai positions at roughly one sixth the cost of comparable frontier models". Group gross margin fell to 26.4% from 50.0%, Reuters reports rivals "cutting prices", and the prospectus warns of "continued pricing pressures".

基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：www1.hkexnews.hk

与其他公司对比…

产业链位置

层级: foundation models

• 上游（供应商）： —
• 下游（客户）： —
• 竞争对手： —

Zhipu is a model layer between compute and applications. Upstream, its prospectus says its suppliers are primarily "providers of computing resources, such as computing hardware and computing services", and records that on January 16, 2025 the company and nine subsidiaries were added to the US Entity List, which "restricts our ability to purchase or otherwise access certain goods, software and technology that are subject to the EAR without a license from the BIS"; its interim results say it now runs large-scale inference "across a cluster of over 100,000 domestic chips". Downstream it sells model access through its MaaS platform, Coding Plan subscriptions and on-premise deployments to enterprises, public-sector bodies and developers, and publishes its model weights openly.

由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。

信号贡献 编辑先验

护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 -0.06 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 bullish（得分 0.52，信念度 65）。

编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →

产品线

产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。

你正在看的是什么

这些图表绘制的是 Zhipu AI 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2025-12-31）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。

在已申报的区间内，营收增长 1156%，达到 $103.5M（FY2022→FY2025）; 毛利率从 55% 变为 41%; FY2025 净亏损 $674.4M。

我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。

申报文件

• 2025Q4 · 申报于 2025-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
• FY2025 · 申报于 2025-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
• 2025Q2 · 申报于 2025-06-30 来源：finance.yahoo.com
• FY2024 · 申报于 2024-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
• FY2023 · 申报于 2023-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com

关键比率与同业对比

正在与同业比较…

机构持有人（13F）

尚无被追踪的 13F 持有人。

这可能意味着该公司的 CUSIP 尚未为 13F 匹配整理过，而不是没有机构持有它。

战略性企业投资方

• Alibaba Group — Among the investors in Zhipu's 2023 fundraising totaling RMB 2.5B (~$342M), alongside Tencent, Ant, Xiaomi, HongShan and Meituan (individual amount undisclosed) · 2023-10-23 来源：datacenterknowledge.com

尚未追踪 Zhipu AI 的任何催化剂。