AI-adopting incumbents · 產業指數 10 (排名 #120) ·
價格: 截至 2026-10-30 指數: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-07-31 按季揭露（10-Q XBRL）
mRNA therapeutics and vaccines pioneer (Spikevax) that outsources drug-substance and fill-finish manufacturing to Lonza and Thermo Fisher.
產業曝險 0.2 (AI-adopting incumbent, not an AI vendor. Its FY2025 10-K describes a collaboration with OpenAI begun in early 2023, enterprise-wide ChatGPT Enterprise deployment in 2024, generative AI scaled across the enterprise in 2025, and AI/ML algorithms that "optimize manufacturability, reduce failures and increase quality of mRNA sequences".)
延遲的日終逐合約彙總資料——不是即時盤口，也不是逐筆資金流。買賣方向是根據每個合約最後一筆成交在買賣價差中的位置推斷出來的，並非觀測到的委託流。除非有報價的合約佔當日權利金的四分之一以上，否則公司層級的方向會被隱去，因此下方個別合約有方向時這裡也可能為空。買權/賣權權利金是在我們擷取的合約範圍內計算的——最近的 6 個到期日、45 天以內，並非完整選擇權鏈——而下表最多列出 20 個被標記的合約，所以把這些列加總不會還原出上面的百分比。
標記原因：earnings today
| 日期 | 合約 | 異常分數 | 買賣方向（推斷）? | 未平倉變動? | 成交量 | 成交量/未平倉 | 標記 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $232.5 CALL | 91 | — | +3 | 5,127 | 62.5× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $247.5 CALL | 88 | 賣方主動 | +2 | 5,060 | 83.0× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $242.5 CALL | 73 | 賣方主動 | +12 | 689 | 18.1× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $227.5 CALL | 69 | 買方主動 | +126 | 800 | 5.2× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $215 PUT | 65 | 買方主動 | +19 | 869 | 3.3× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $235 CALL | 63 | — | +9 | 720 | 3.6× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $230 CALL | 62 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +3,001 | 3,768 | 1.1× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $245 CALL | 56 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +2,841 | 3,294 | 1.0× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $190 PUT | 51 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +36 | 580 | 1.9× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $200 PUT | 50 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +79 | 804 | 1.6× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $205 PUT | 49 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +2 | 108 | 3.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $250 CALL | 47 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +203 | 3,736 | 0.4× |
8 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：為 13 日基準的 0.8 倍
買權 78% / 賣權 22%（按權利金）
價格動能 定下了基調，但群體不願下結論——正向傾斜加上薄弱的一致度，因此結論為中性。
多數投票者傾向一致；結構性 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.32。
一個明確的中性分數；信心度 0.11 反映的是代理人之間的一致強度。信心度是信心，不是價格變動的機率。
Moderna's 10-K rests its competitive case on the mRNA platform and the IP wrapped around it: the company states it believes its capabilities "across mRNA technology, drug discovery, development and manufacturing" differentiate it, and reports more than 260 issued or allowed U.S. patents or applications, more than 140 granted or allowed abroad, 485 pending applications, and granted patents on Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA projected to expire in 2041 (U.S.) and 2036 (Europe), plus trade secrets and manufacturing know-how it calls substantial. The filing is equally direct about the limits: the principal COVID rival's vaccine "is also based on mRNA technology"; a competitor's European Commission contract keeps Moderna out of many European COVID markets until year-end 2026; RSV sales are "minimal to date" behind Pfizer and GSK; and the risk factors warn that "the mRNA medicines field is growing rapidly, with increased competitive pressure from large and more established pharmaceutical companies." What is durable is science and plant rather than commercial position: Moderna bought and operates the Norwood (MTC) campus, completed a Marlborough site purpose-built for intismeran autogene that began shipping patient batches in September 2025, and runs UK, Canada and Australia facilities that were fully licensed in 2025, each government having entered a multi-year commitment to purchase mRNA products from the company.
評級: 窄
The FY2025 10-K supports a real but bounded advantage. The Competition section says the company believes "mRNA as a medicine coupled with our capabilities across mRNA technology, drug discovery, development and manufacturing provide us with a competitive advantage," and the Intellectual Property section backs that with more than 260 issued or allowed U.S. patents or applications, more than 140 granted or allowed outside the U.S., 485 pending applications, and latest-to-expire granted patents on all three approved products projected to 2041 in the U.S. and 2036 in Europe. Item 1A cuts the band down from wide: it opens the competition risk with "The vaccine market, and pharmaceutical market more generally, is intensely competitive," says Moderna "ha[s] been excluded from selling our COVID vaccines in many European markets due to a competitor's contract with the European Commission, which does not lapse until year-end 2026," that in RSV it "entered a market already occupied by two larger competitors," and that rivals "have exploited and may in the future exploit their greater size, infrastructure, resources and experience." The same section reports net losses of $2.8 billion in 2025 and $3.6 billion in 2024 against 2025 total revenue of $1.9 billion.
類型: 無形資產與智慧財產
The filing locates the advantage in a patent and know-how estate, not in customer lock-in or cost. Intellectual Property describes "an expansive, multi-layered IP estate" whose platform claims cover mRNA chemistry, sequence optimization, engineering elements, LNP delivery systems and "innovative processes for the manufacture and analysis of mRNA drug substance and formulated drug product," alongside "substantial proprietary know-how associated with related manufacturing processes" and a trademark portfolio of at least 1,400 registrations. Nothing in the filing claims switching costs or a cost advantage; Item 1A says the opposite, that competitors leverage "larger supply chains and greater purchasing power."
領先地位: 並列領先者
The Business section opens with the company's own claim that "Moderna is a pioneer and leader in the field of mRNA medicine." The Competition section frames the commercial reality more narrowly as a contest against a small named set: "We largely compete against Pfizer and BioNTech for sales of our COVID vaccines, whose vaccine is also based on mRNA technology. We also compete against other vaccines, including Sanofi and Novavax's." It does not claim a rank anywhere, and it places Moderna behind in the other approved category: in RSV "we compete against Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, who entered the U.S. market prior to us, and our RSV sales have been minimal to date."
定價權: 弱
Item 1A states that "certain U.S. private vaccine market practices, including regarding discounts, rebates and returns, may cause us to realize significantly lower revenues than list prices," and that "in some instances, our competitors have been able to offer more attractive terms than we can, and they may continue to do so in the future." On the flu candidate it says that in a well-developed market Moderna "may need to offer more favorable terms to gain market share (which we may be unable to do), which may negatively impact our profitability." The Commercial section adds that its markets are "characterized, particularly in the U.S. (our largest market), by a fragmented end customer base, unpredictability in orders and seasonality of deliveries."
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：sec.gov
層級: AI-adopting incumbents
A vertically integrated mRNA developer-manufacturer that sits between upstream licensors and government or retail buyers: it in-licenses the Penn modified-mRNA patents non-exclusively through Cellscript and mRNA RiboTherapeutics at low-single-digit royalties and NIAID's prefusion coronavirus spike and prefusion RSV F patents, manufactures drug substance at the owned Norwood MTC campus and individualized therapy at Marlborough, runs Moderna-built plants in the UK, Canada and Australia against multi-year government purchase commitments, and relies on CMOs for critical raw material production and fill-finish.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 +0.05 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 bearish（分數 -0.29，信念度 30）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| Intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) · Individualized neoantigen cancer therapy (investigational) An individualized mRNA cancer therapy developed with Merck under the 2016 PCV Agreement and given with pembrolizumab; Merck exercised its option in September 2022 and costs and profits are generally shared equally worldwide. Eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials are underway across multiple tumor types, and in January 2026 the partners announced five-year Phase 2b data showing sustained improvement in recurrence-free survival in high-risk (stage III/IV) melanoma after complete resection. | 未知 Not approved, so the filing reports no market position and no share figure for it. | 中等 The filing describes an unusual manufacturing barrier - patient-specific data from tumour sequencing digitally integrated to auto-design each batch, proprietary bioinformatics algorithms linked to an automated process with a few weeks' turnaround, and a Marlborough facility purpose-built for it that began shipping patient batches in September 2025 - plus patent applications in multiple jurisdictions and "substantial know-how and trade secrets relating to the development and commercialization of our cancer therapy programs." Against that, Competition says "we face intense competition in the oncology space," that "competitors may generate superior data, advance more quickly, and establish new standards of care," and Item 1A calls the oncology market "intensely competitive, innovative and fast-moving." |
| Spikevax · COVID-19 vaccine Moderna's original COVID vaccine (mRNA-1273). The 2025-2026 formula targets the LP.8.1 variant and the filing says it has been approved in 40 countries, and by the FDA for high-risk individuals aged six months through 64 years and all adults 65 and older. | 前三 No share figure is disclosed. The filing reports 2025 total revenue of $1.9 billion "largely from sales of our COVID vaccines," in a market whose competitors Competition names as Pfizer and BioNTech, plus Sanofi and Novavax; it also notes some competitors sell COVID treatments, including Pfizer's antiviral pill, "which may reduce demand for vaccines." | 中等 The IP table projects granted U.S. patents to 2041 and European patents to 2036. Offsetting that, the underlying chemistry is licensed in, not owned outright: the Cellscript-MRT sublicenses to the Penn Modified mRNA Patents are non-exclusive and royalty-bearing at low-single-digit rates, the NIAID prefusion coronavirus spike licence is likewise non-exclusive, and the company has announced it will not enforce its COVID patents against manufacturers supplying the Gavi COVAX AMC 92 countries. |
| mNEXSPIKE · COVID-19 vaccine Next-generation COVID vaccine (mRNA-1283) approved by the FDA in May 2025 for individuals 65 and older and individuals 12 through 64 at high risk for severe COVID-19; its mRNA dose is one-fifth that of Spikevax, and it has also been approved in Europe, Canada and Australia. | 前三 The filing discloses no market-share figure. Competition names the whole rival set for COVID vaccines as Pfizer and BioNTech ("we largely compete against"), plus Sanofi and Novavax, which is the basis for a top-three band rather than any measured share. The company adds that mNEXSPIKE, launched commercially in the third quarter of 2025, "is now our leading product in the U.S. retail channel" - a statement about Moderna's own mix, not about the market. | 中等 The IP table projects the latest-to-expire granted U.S. patents covering mNEXSPIKE to 2041 and European patents to 2036, and the filing cites April 2025 Phase 3 data showing non-inferior efficacy to Spikevax with 13.5% relative vaccine efficacy in participants 65 and older. The barrier is not exclusionary: Competition says the principal rival's COVID vaccine "is also based on mRNA technology," and Item 1A says Moderna has been excluded from many European markets by a competitor's European Commission contract running to year-end 2026. |
| mRESVIA · RSV vaccine RSV vaccine (mRNA-1345) encoding a prefusion-stabilised RSV F protein in Moderna's proprietary LNP; FDA-approved May 2024 for adults 60 and older and extended in June 2025 to adults 18-59 at increased risk. The filing says it is approved in 40 countries for all adults 60 and older and in 31 of those for high-risk adults aged 18-59. | 挑戰者 Competition states plainly that "with respect to our RSV vaccine, we compete against Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, who entered the U.S. market prior to us, and our RSV sales have been minimal to date." Item 1A repeats that Moderna "entered a market already occupied by two larger competitors and may continue to face difficulties achieving market share," and attributes part of the shortfall to "advisory committee recommendations that were more limited than anticipated." | 中等 The IP table projects granted U.S. patents covering mRESVIA to 2041 and European patents to 2036, and the filing says its RSV portfolio "includes multiple families of differing patent breadth." The prefusion RSV F rights are in-licensed non-exclusively from NIAID under a January 2025 agreement carrying tiered low-to-mid single-digit royalties, so the patents do not exclude the two incumbents already selling. |
| mRNA-1010 seasonal influenza vaccine · Seasonal influenza vaccine (investigational) Seasonal flu candidate encoding the hemagglutinin proteins of WHO-recommended strains. The filing reports October 2025 results showing 26.6% relative vaccine efficacy versus a standard-dose comparator in adults 50 and older, and says the candidate has been filed for approval in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia; after a prior Refusal-to-File letter, an amended BLA was submitted and, as of the filing, the FDA had accepted it with a PDUFA goal date of August 5, 2026. | 未知 Not approved as of the filing, so no market position is stated. Competition says only that Moderna is "developing a seasonal flu vaccine for which there is a well-developed market." | 中等 The IP section says the influenza programme has "multiple patent families spanning different levels of breadth, design and antigen valency pending in the U.S., Europe and around the world, including several granted patents." The filing also records regulatory friction rather than a clean path: a prior Refusal-to-File letter, an amended BLA seeking full approval only for adults 50 to 64 with accelerated approval for 65 and older, and a post-marketing requirement for an additional study in older adults. |
這些圖表繪製的是 Moderna 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-07-31）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，FY2025 淨損 $2.8B。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-26。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD -1.28 (USD -3.28–USD -0.80) · 15 | USD 891309430.00 (USD 836000000.00–USD 1.1B) · 14 | -12% |
| FY 2026 | USD -8.49 (USD -10.57–USD -7.95) · 21 | USD 2.1B (USD 2.0B–USD 2.2B) · 21 | +8% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2026-11-06。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
部分近期數字取自 Yahoo Finance，用來補上最新 SEC 申報尚未發布的期間——已換算為美元，並與 SEC 申報期間核對過。
正在與同業比較…
| 機構 | 股數 | 金額 | 季增減股數 | 佔 13F 比例 | 佔流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR (Fidelity) 被動 / 指數 | 51,859,891 | $3.6B | 6,187,867 | 0.2% | 12.99% |
| BlackRock 被動 / 指數 | 30,599,409 | $2.1B | 963,533 | 0.0% | 7.66% |
| State Street 被動 / 指數 | 15,726,193 | $1.1B | 864,784 | 0.0% | 3.94% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大師 | 11,527 | $807236 | -63,295 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot 計算的欄位（佔 13F 比例、佔流通股比例）由申報原值推導而來；只有名稱、股數與金額是申報原值。
JUVE Patent · 2026-09-18 · 監管
The EPO Boards of Appeal revoked Moderna's European patent EP 3 590 949, the key mRNA vaccine patent on which Moderna had brought legal action against BioNTech and Pfizer. The decision nullifies Moderna's earlier wins before national courts in London and Düsseldorf, though litigation between the parties is likely to continue.
Fierce Biotech · 2026-09-11 · 產品
Moderna and Merck reported that their individualized mRNA cancer vaccine combined with Keytruda significantly improved survival in a phase 3 melanoma trial, the first late-stage win for a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine. Detailed trial data have not yet been presented at a medical meeting.
Clinical Trials Arena · 2026-09-01 · 產品
GSK is moving its mRNA flu vaccine into a Phase III trial, positioning it against Moderna in mRNA influenza vaccines.
ACCESS Newswire · 2026-09-01 · 融資
Moderna priced an upsized $2.6 billion offering of convertible senior notes.
Drug Discovery Trends · 2026-08-31 · 產品
Drug Discovery Trends reports that the Merck and Moderna cancer vaccine is customized to each individual patient's tumor.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-30 · 監管
Yahoo Finance examines what Moderna's recent FDA vaccine approvals mean for the company's respiratory vaccine push.
WDEZ · 2026-08-29 · 產品
A feature on the Moderna and Merck cancer vaccine breakthrough, framed as success after a century of failed attempts at cancer vaccines.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-28 · 產品
Moderna and Merck & Co.'s jointly developed individualized cancer vaccine reported a positive result in a late-stage trial, per the article. The readout is for the mRNA cancer-vaccine program the two companies co-develop, and follow-on coverage in the same sweep tied it to melanoma. No efficacy figures are given in the cited piece, so none are reproduced here.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-28 · 融資
Moderna announced the pricing of an upsized offering of $2.6 billion of convertible senior notes. The deal was upsized from the $2.0 billion private placement Moderna proposed the previous day (2026-08-27).
Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-27 · 監管
Moderna said the U.S. FDA approved its updated 2026-2027 formula COVID-19 vaccines, clearing the company's product for the coming respiratory season.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-31 · 財報
Moderna reported second quarter revenue of $0.1 billion, a GAAP net loss of $(0.8) billion and GAAP EPS of $(1.97), alongside business and pipeline updates.
Google News: Moderna · 2026-07-14 · 監管
The FDA refused to review Moderna's flu vaccine in a surprise regulatory setback.
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna Jumps 4% Despite William Blair Downgrade on Valuation; Novavax and BioNTech Edge Higher
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Axsome Therapeutics vs. Moderna: Consistent Revenue Growth or Sharp Volatility
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: PFE · Was The Run In Moderna Stock Hiding In Plain Sight?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Scancell cancer vaccine strategy backed by Moderna and Merck trial results
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna shares slip as William Blair cuts rating on valuation after rally
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna’s CEO Gives an Inside Look at the Biotech’s New Era
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna (MRNA) Gets Phase 3 Melanoma Vaccine Validation At ESMO And NEJM
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna CEO Says Its Cancer Vaccine Isn’t a Disappointment, It’s a Blockbuster
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna’s Cancer Vaccine Rally Hits a Wall. This Other Drugmaker Stole the Show.
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna Recovers From 10% Dive, But Muted Expectations Haunt Cancer Vaccine
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna Sinks Another 8% Even as Lead Investigator Calls Melanoma Vaccine Data “Transformational”
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Moderna’s Rally May Have Run Out of Steam. Here’s What to Watch Next
2026-10-26 MarketWatch Top Stories · The excitement around Moderna’s cancer vaccine is cooling. Here’s why.
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: MRNA · Premarket movers: Moderna, Brazil ADRs drop; SpaceX rises
2026-10-24 MarketWatch Top Stories · Moderna’s cancer vaccine is ‘likely’ to get approved. Skeptics question if it will be the best option.
2026-10-23 CNBC Top News · Doctors call Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine data a major advancement — despite Wall Street reaction
2026-10-23 CNBC Top News · Moderna shares plunge after cancer vaccine data leaks — despite positive results
2026-10-22 MarketWatch Top Stories · Moderna’s cancer vaccine hits its targets, but a data leak rattled investors and the stock tumbled
2026-10-22 Business Wire Health · Merck and Moderna Will Present Results From Landmark Phase 3 INTerpath-001 Trial for Intismeran Autogene Plus KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) at ESMO 2026 Presidential Symposium
2026-10-22 MarketWatch Top Stories · Moderna has a plan to revolutionize how certain cancers are treated. We’re about to find out its potential in melanoma.
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Moderna earnings (estimated) 預估 | 中 | 結果待定 |
| 2026-07-31 | Moderna earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +0.6% |
| 2026-05-01 | Moderna earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +4.3% |
