AI applications & software · 產業指數 14 (排名 #67) ·
價格: 截至 2026-10-30 指數: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-08-27 按季揭露（10-Q XBRL）
Salesforce is the leading cloud CRM provider, now embedding AI agents across its platform via Einstein and the Agentforce framework.
產業曝險 0.4 (AI (Einstein/Agentforce) is a fast-growing but still minority driver within a very large core CRM/SaaS business.)
延遲的日終逐合約彙總資料——不是即時盤口，也不是逐筆資金流。買賣方向是根據每個合約最後一筆成交在買賣價差中的位置推斷出來的，並非觀測到的委託流。除非有報價的合約佔當日權利金的四分之一以上，否則公司層級的方向會被隱去，因此下方個別合約有方向時這裡也可能為空。買權/賣權權利金是在我們擷取的合約範圍內計算的——最近的 6 個到期日、45 天以內，並非完整選擇權鏈——而下表最多列出 20 個被標記的合約，所以把這些列加總不會還原出上面的百分比。
標記原因：FOMC Rate Decision in 5 days
| 日期 | 合約 | 異常分數 | 買賣方向（推斷）? | 未平倉變動? | 成交量 | 成交量/未平倉 | 標記 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $217.5 PUT | 73 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +18 | 1,710 | 16.6× | 價格平淡 |
| 2026-10-30 | $217.5 CALL | 38 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +9 | 277 | 8.7× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $200 CALL | 38 | 買方主動 | +3 | 126 | 7.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $232.5 CALL | 37 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +39 | 232 | 4.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $255 PUT | 35 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | -46 | 74 | 74.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $222.5 CALL | 35 | 買方主動 | 0 | 102 | 51.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $252.5 PUT | 34 | 賣方主動 | -64 | 108 | 36.0× |
13 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：為 13 日基準的 1.0 倍
買權 43% / 賣權 57%（按權利金）
價格動能 定下了基調，但群體不願下結論——正向傾斜加上薄弱的一致度，因此結論為中性。
多數投票者傾向一致；結構性 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.09。
分數略偏正，但一致度薄弱——因此引擎給出沒有信心度的中性，而不是過度斷言。這是系統拒絕硬湊一個它並不具備的結論。
Salesforce is the incumbent of record in CRM applications and is paid like one: $41.5B of FY2026 revenue (+10%), 78% gross margin, $72.4B of contracted revenue not yet recognized, and first place in worldwide CRM for a thirteenth consecutive year at 20.0% share per IDC's tracker as announced by Salesforce. Enterprise data and workflow embedded through Data 360 and Agentforce is costly to unwind, and the agentic layer is deliberately built atop existing processes rather than requiring re-implementation. The limits are the company's own: it twice describes its market as having low barriers to entry, names AI-native startups whose solutions "may bypass traditional business process workflows or displace established user interfaces," ranks second at 17.5% in IDC's new Agent Build and Deploy segment, and concedes pricing did not drive FY2026 growth.
評級: 窄
Salesforce's own language caps this at narrow: Item 1 calls its market "highly competitive, rapidly evolving and fragmented, and subject to changing technology with low barriers to entry." What holds it above none is scale and contract duration: $72.4B total RPO at 2026-01-31 versus $63.4B (+14%), current RPO $35.1B versus $30.2B (+16%), on revenue of $41.5B (+10%). But cRPO growth "was positively impacted by three percent" by currency, and total RPO "includes approximately $2.2 billion" from Informatica, acquired November 2025. Adjusted, the contracted base still outgrows revenue, but by less than the headline implies.
類型: 轉換成本
Switching costs, with a caveat: the filing's clearest lock-in sentence is about rivals' customers, not its own. "Many prospective customers have invested substantial personnel and financial resources to implement and integrate their current enterprise software... may be reluctant or unwilling to migrate away" is a headwind to Salesforce's own growth. Evidence for its own base is architectural: Data 360 unifies data into "a single, governed source of truth," Agentforce runs on existing processes "without requiring customers to remove and rebuild," behind $72.4B of contracted revenue. Contracts run "typically 12 to 36 months" with no renewal obligation.
領先地位: 明確領先者
Clear leader in the category as it exists today, runner-up in the one it is being rebuilt into. Per IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker on 2025 data, Salesforce was first in worldwide CRM applications for a thirteenth consecutive year at 20.0% share, and first in Sales (fourteenth year), Customer Service (thirteenth), Marketing (seventh), model-driven application platform (eleventh) and Integration (fourth). These come from Salesforce announcing its own IDC results via a trade outlet, in translation, not IDC primary material. In the same tracker's new Agent Build and Deploy segment it ranked second at 17.5%, albeit as fastest-growing vendor.
定價權: 中等
Gross margin rises across the Item 7 table — gross profit of $32,255M on $41,525M of revenue, 78% of total revenues in FY2026 against 77% in FY2025 and 75% in FY2024 — yet MD&A denies price as the cause: growth "was primarily caused by volume-driven increases from new business," and "Pricing was not a significant driver of the increase in revenues for the period." Item 1A names consumption-based pricing among attrition factors, says Agentforce and Data 360 monetization "remain relatively new and uncertain," and concedes "limited experience with determining optimal pricing for our consumption-based contracts."
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：sec.gov
層級: AI applications & software
Applications-layer incumbent: sells enterprise CRM and agentic software to end customers across industries, consumes cloud infrastructure (third-party IaaS partners plus its own Hyperforce estate) and third-party LLMs, and sits upstream of no hardware supply chain. Exposure is to enterprise software budgets and to whether the agentic layer is captured by incumbent suites or AI-native entrants.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 +0.20 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 neutral（分數 0.05，信念度 0）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| Agentforce (Agent Build and Deploy) · Enterprise AI agent platform Platform to build, deploy, manage and orchestrate autonomous enterprise AI agents, pairing LLM reasoning with customers' existing deterministic business logic inside the trust layer. | 前三 IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker ranked Salesforce second with 17.5% share in the newly created Agent Build and Deploy segment on 2025 data, and assessed it the segment's fastest-growing vendor. This is the one category central to the FY2026 narrative where the company is the runner-up rather than the leader. | 低 The lowest barrier in the portfolio, on the filing's own disclosures: markets and monetization strategies for Agentforce and Data 360 'remain relatively new and uncertain'; the company has 'limited experience with determining optimal pricing for our consumption-based contracts'; and Item 1A names AI-native companies and emerging startups whose specialized autonomous solutions 'may bypass traditional business process workflows or displace established user interfaces.' The segment itself is new enough that IDC only just created it. |
| Agentforce 360 Platform · Model-driven application platform Low-code/no-code platform for building workflows, applications and AI agents, with the Trust Layer for data guardrails and Hyperforce for data residency and local compliance. | 領先 IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker (2025 data, as announced by Salesforce) ranked it first in the model-driven application platform and enterprise community segments for an eleventh consecutive year. The ranking covers the platform alone; no share source exists for Slack or Data 360. | 中等 Platform custom objects, metadata-defined policies and AppExchange/ISV integrations are genuinely costly to rebuild, and the 'tens of millions of Trailblazers' community adds ecosystem depth. It stays at moderate rather than deep because no cited source supports a deeper barrier and the filing itself twice discloses 'low barriers to entry'; the filing also names cloud development platform companies whose toolsets let customers build AI-augmented applications on infrastructure they already own. |
| Agentforce Integration (MuleSoft) · Integration and API management Unified integration, automation and API platform connecting enterprise systems and exposing them as callable actions to agents. | 領先 IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker (2025 data, as announced by Salesforce) ranked it first in Integration for a fourth consecutive year. The ranking covers Integration alone; Agentforce Analytics has no sourced share in either cited document. | 中等 API estates accumulate per-connection configuration that is expensive to re-point, and the 10-K describes agents taking action through MuleSoft APIs, making integration the execution path for the agentic layer. Held at moderate: this is only a fourth consecutive year at the top, the shortest streak disclosed, and integration software vendors are named as a distinct competitor class. |
| Agentforce Marketing · Marketing campaign management Marketing platform for lifecycle personalization, campaign generation, segmentation and predictive optimization built on unified customer profiles. | 領先 IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker (2025 data, as announced by Salesforce) ranked it first in Marketing for a seventh consecutive year. The ranking covers Marketing alone; no share data for Commerce exists in either cited source. | 中等 Marketing suites are more contestable than the system-of-record layers — the filing names marketing vendors as a distinct competitor class alongside point solutions sold without a direct sales organization — but data unification via Data 360 raises the cost of detaching campaign infrastructure. |
| Agentforce Sales · Sales force automation / CRM applications Integrated sales platform spanning prospecting, sales engagement, collaboration, analytics, performance and partner management, with AI agents embedded across the sales process. | 領先 IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker (2025 data, as announced by Salesforce) ranked it first in Sales for a fourteenth consecutive year. The ranking comes from the vendor-announced IDC placement rather than IDC primary material, and covers Salesforce's sales applications category rather than the Agentforce-branded SKU specifically. | 中等 The 10-K twice describes its market as having low barriers to entry, which caps this below deep. Moderate rests on integration depth and contracted duration ($72.4B total RPO; subscriptions typically 12 to 36 months), offset by the filing citing that contract length inside a non-renewal risk factor. |
| Agentforce Service · Customer service / contact center applications Unified customer, employee, IT and field service platform with AI case routing, auto-summarization and agentic handling of low-touch interactions. | 領先 IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker (2025 data, as announced by Salesforce) ranked it first in Customer Service for a thirteenth consecutive year. This is the vendor-announced IDC placement rather than IDC primary material. | 中等 Service deployments embed routing rules, case history and field-service workflows, which Agentforce is designed to preserve rather than rebuild. Held at moderate by the filing's own twice-stated low barriers to entry and its naming of AI-native entrants that may 'bypass traditional business process workflows.' |
2 項完全具備 · 3 項部分具備 ，共 5 項 — 這是一種格局，不是分數
Salesforce owns the enterprise relationship and the workflow surface outright, and holds partial positions on data, evaluation and models. The pattern is a company that owns where the work happens and who it is sold to, while the reasoning layer it runs on is largely bought.
| 客戶關係 | 完全具備 | Salesforce contracts directly with the enterprise: the FY26 10-K states it sells "to businesses worldwide, primarily on a subscription basis, through our direct sales efforts and also indirectly through partners," with subscription periods "typically 12 to 36 months." The direct sales motion, the contracting counterparty and the multi-year renewal cycle put Salesforce rather than an intermediary at the centre of the relationship, and the partner channel is disclosed as secondary. The product also reaches the enterprise's own end customers: "Our Agentforce Service offering enables companies in every industry to bring all of their customer, employee, IT and field service needs onto one integrated, AI-powered platform to deliver trusted, highly personalized customer support at scale." 來源：sec.gov |
|---|---|---|
| 專有資料 | 部分具備 | The corpus Agentforce reasons over is the customer's own tenant data, retrieved at run time rather than owned. The Einstein Trust Layer "takes any direct merge fields inside of the prompt and grounds it with record data from Salesforce," via Flow data providers and Data Cloud retrievers, substitutes "a designated placeholder" for PII, and commits that "This 'zero retention' architecture ensures that customer data is never stored outside of Salesforce" — contracting away cross-tenant learning. The FY26 10-K discloses no training or fine-tuning on customer data. What Salesforce holds is the CRM schema and metadata model plus the unification and residency layer: structure and custody, not an owned corpus. The 112 trillion records Data 360 ingested in FY26, up 114% Y/Y, measure that custody volume. 來源：developer.salesforce.com |
| 評測體系 | 部分具備 | Salesforce AI Research publishes its own benchmark, CRMArena-Pro ("Holistic Assessment of LLM Agents Across Diverse Business Scenarios and Interactions," 24 May 2025), covering "nineteen expert-validated tasks across sales, service, and 'configure, price, and quote' processes" with "multi-turn interactions guided by diverse personas and robust confidentiality awareness assessments." It reports that "leading LLM agents achieve only around 58% single-turn success on CRMArena-Pro, with performance dropping significantly to approximately 35% in multi-turn settings." The dataset is released under cc-by-nc-4.0 for "research purposes only in support of an academic paper," no in-product pass/fail bar or grader set is publicly reachable, and outside labs do not measure themselves against it. 來源：arxiv.org |
| 工作流程 | 完全具備 | The work happens inside Salesforce's own objects. The FY26 10-K states that "Agentforce is infused across every Salesforce application, so intelligence is embedded directly into the workflows where work actually happens. Instead of switching between tools, people can collaborate with agents inside and across the systems they already use every day." It adds that agents "can access live business data through Data 360, follow company policies defined in Salesforce metadata, and take action through Salesforce applications and MuleSoft Application Programming Interfaces ('APIs')," with "deterministic business logic, workflows, and policies" instantly accessible without rebuilding existing processes. Slack sits inside the same perimeter, at $8,882M FY26 subscription revenue in its segment. 來源：sec.gov |
| 領域專用模型 | 部分具備 | Salesforce AI Research trains real domain models — the xLAM action and function-calling family and xGen — and the company says of xLAM that "A significantly more advanced, proprietary version is powering Agentforce," describing xGen-Sales as "a proprietary model trained and designed to power autonomous sales tasks with Agentforce." The reasoning and generation layer is bought: the default is "a managed mix of trusted models (currently including GPT-4o) optimized by Salesforce," and every selectable model is external — GPT-4o through GPT-5.x and o3/o4-mini, Anthropic Claude via Bedrock, Gemini via Vertex, Amazon Nova, NVIDIA Nemotron — plus bring-your-own-LLM. The proprietary claim rests on the filing's own characterisation from September 2024; the FY26 10-K names no such model. 來源：salesforce.com |
Salesforce reported $1.2 billion of Agentforce annual recurring revenue for the quarter ended April 30, 2026, up 205% year over year, inside nearly $3.4 billion of combined Agentforce and Data 360 ARR. Usage carries the evidence: 3.8 billion Agentic Work Units delivered to date across Agentforce and Slack, up 111% quarter over quarter, and 28.6 trillion tokens processed to date, up 152%. Chair and CEO Marc Benioff described Agentforce as powering every Customer 360 application across tens of thousands of businesses. Headroom sits in the same release: more than half of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings came from existing customers, and that $1.2 billion runs against full-year FY27 revenue guidance of $45.9 billion to $46.2 billion. 來源：sec.gov
這是並列的另一條軸，而不是第六項：它從不計入上方的格局，兩者也從不平均成一個分數。
依據以下條件偵查：a company that simultaneously owns the customer relationship, the data, the evals, the workflow, and a domain-specific model。無權重——這份檔案從不影響訊號，也不是對報酬的預測。
這些圖表繪製的是 Salesforce 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-08-27）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，FY2026 淨利為 $7.5B。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-26。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 3.45 (USD 3.39–USD 3.85) · 42 | USD 11.5B (USD 11.3B–USD 11.5B) · 40 | +12% |
| FY 2027 | USD 16.75 (USD 16.67–USD 17.60) · 52 | USD 46.3B (USD 46.2B–USD 46.4B) · 46 | +11% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2026-12-02。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Bullish——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
正在與同業比較…
| 機構 | 股數 | 金額 | 季增減股數 | 佔 13F 比例 | 佔流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被動 / 指數 | 72,748,909 | $11.4B | -6,942,275 | 0.2% | 8.84% |
| State Street 被動 / 指數 | 44,869,478 | $7.1B | -4,083,910 | 0.2% | 5.45% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被動 / 指數 | 9,381,826 | $1.5B | -504,739 | 0.1% | 1.14% |
| Renaissance Technologies 大師 | 212,601 | $33.3M | 212,601 | 0.0% | 0.03% |
TradingPilot 計算的欄位（佔 13F 比例、佔流通股比例）由申報原值推導而來；只有名稱、股數與金額是申報原值。
最後一次申報於 2023Q3；此後不再提交 13F。
| 部位 | 股數 | 金額 | 申報均價 | 佔投組比例 | 異動 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No securities | 0 | $0 | — | — | 新建部位 |
顯示全部 0 個申報的 13(f) 部位；其中 0 個可連結到 TradingPilot 的公司庫。申報均價為金額 ÷ 股數（季末口徑）——這是一個平均值，不是買進或賣出價。
| 被投公司 | 內容 | 日期 | 狀態 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hugging Face | Series D investor in Hugging Face's $235M round at a $4.5B valuation (round also included Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm and IBM; individual amounts undisclosed) | 2023-08-24 | active |
CNBC · 2026-09-16 · 財報
At its Dreamforce session with analysts and investors, Salesforce issued a fiscal 2030 revenue forecast of more than $63 billion, above the $59.2 billion analysts polled by LSEG expected; CFO Robin Washington said Salesforce has bought back a cumulative $60 billion of its shares, and CEO Marc Benioff said the company will probably sell its Anthropic stake.
Salesforce · 2026-09-16 · 合作
Salesforce announced new Missionforce AI capabilities for government agencies and a new Missionforce partnership with OpenAI to bring OpenAI's models to secure government environments. Through Salesforce Government Cloud, OpenAI's frontier models will integrate with Public Sector Solutions through Amazon Bedrock, and Missionforce applications and workflows will also be available through ChatGPT.
Business Wire AI · 2026-09-15 · 合作
Salesforce announced Koa, its first CRM reasoning model, built on NVIDIA Nemotron.
Business Wire · 2026-07-24 · 合作
The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs awarded Salesforce a $1.6 billion contract to modernize veteran care and services.
Google News: Salesforce · 2026-07-13 · 合作
Salesforce signed a new U.S. Air Force deal for its IL5-certified government cloud.
2026-10-30 PR Newswire Tech · TPM Holdings Accelerates Investment in AI and Salesforce CRM for the Built World
2026-10-29 Business Wire AI · Practifi Announces Continued Partnership with Dynasty Financial Partners to Deliver Purpose-Built CRM
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: GOOGL · MITTI LABS & SALESFORCE PARTNER TO SCALE WATER-SAVING RICE FARMING PRACTICES THAT REDUCE METHANE EMISSIONS
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Salesforce (CRM) Brings In Usage Based AI Billing With New Agent Fabric Controls
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: CRM · What Is Going On With Salesforce Stock?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Salesforce adds AI agent testing and cost controls to Agent Fabric
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Salesforce (CRM) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Salesforce (CRM) Stock Looks Cheap Relative To Its Earnings Power
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Agentforce Growth Strengthens Salesforce’s (CRM) Generative AI Narrative
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Is Salesforce (CRM) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Why Burke Wealth Sold Salesforce (CRM) After Its 20% Post-Earnings Rally
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Salesforce has rocketed 50% since July, yet the rally looks far from over
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: CRM · Stocktwits M&A Watch: CRM, BRZE, TW, LEU Stocks In Focus
2026-10-23 Business Wire AI · Salesforce Grants Equity Awards to m3ter and Fin Under Its Inducement Equity Incentive Plan
2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance: ADBE · Can Salesforce Stock Hit $350?
2026-10-22 PR Newswire Aerospace/Defense · REI Systems Launches GovGrants® Public Sector on Salesforce, Delivering Advanced Grants Management and AI-Powered Intelligence
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · OpenArt AI Hires Former Salesforce Global Head of Brand and Creative Scott Larson as Company Nears $200M ARR
2026-10-21 CNBC Top News · Salesforce goes back to the M&A well to fortify a weaker business. Why it's a smart move
2026-10-20 CNBC Top News · Salesforce announces $5.66 billion deal for Braze, sending BRZE stock soaring 51%
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
| 日期 | 類型 | 事件 | 影響 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-02 | 財報 | Salesforce earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. 預估 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Salesforce earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +22.6% |
| 2026-05-27 | Salesforce earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · -0.8% |
