Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK) ☆
foundry & packaging · 產業指數 10 (排名 #120) ·
ⓘ 資料時效
價格: 截至 2026-10-09 指數: 截至 2026-10-12 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-06-30 按季揭露（財務資料來自 Yahoo Finance；未在 SEC 註冊）
SMIC is China's largest semiconductor foundry, producing logic chips including near-leading-edge nodes used by Chinese AI and smartphone chip designers.
產業曝險 0.3 (As China's largest foundry, SMIC produces near-leading-edge logic (7nm-class via DUV multi-patterning) used by Chinese AI/HPC chip designers such as Huawei, though most output is mature-node.)
訊號
訊號: 截至 2026-10-09短期（約 2 週）
- ▼價格動能— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.66, confidence 0.42 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 內部推導
- ▼結構性— Industry Index 10.3 (falling -6.1 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 內部推導
中期（約 3 個月）
- ▲成長趨勢— Revenue 16% YoY (decelerating), net margin expanding.[filing: revenue FY2025 vs FY2024]
- ▼價格動能— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.66, confidence 0.42 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 內部推導
- ▼結構性— Industry Index 10.3 (falling -6.1 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 內部推導
長期（約 6 個月）
- ▲成長趨勢— Revenue 16% YoY (decelerating), net margin expanding.[filing: revenue FY2025 vs FY2024]
- ▲moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): narrow moat / fast_follower / moderate pricing ⇒ wider/leading long-horizon tilt 0.06. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — smic — narrow moat, fast_follower, moderate pricing (as of 2026-09-09)]
- ▼結構性— Industry Index 10.3 (falling -6.1 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 內部推導
關係網路
- ASML — 供應商
- Hua Hong Semiconductor — 競爭對手
主要關係
- ASML — 供應商 · SMIC relies on ASML deep-ultraviolet (DUV) immersion lithography systems, using multi-patterning to produce near-leading-edge chips because it cannot obtain EUV tools. 來源：abhs.in
- Hua Hong Semiconductor — 競爭對手 · SMIC and Hua Hong are China's two largest foundries, competing in domestic mature- and specialty-node manufacturing. 來源：tomshardware.com
異常選擇權活動需要一個在美國掛牌的商品；這家公司沒有。
價格動能 撐起了這次判斷——幾乎全部傾向都由它貢獻，其餘投票者大致相互抵銷。
多數投票者傾向一致；價格動能 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.50。
一個明確的看空分數；信心度 0.24 反映的是代理人之間的一致強度。信心度是信心，不是價格變動的機率。
訊號歷史
護城河
護城河: 最新變動 2026-09-09SMIC is China's largest foundry, running 8-inch and 12-inch fabs in Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Shenzhen. Its 2025 annual report lists mass production on logic, power/analog, high-voltage display driver, embedded and stand-alone non-volatile memory, mixed-signal/RF and CMOS image sensor platforms. 2025 revenue was US$9,326.8 million, up 16.2%. In 2Q26, revenue was $3,005.6 million, gross margin 25.3% and utilization 93.7%, with China at 90.2% of revenue. The tailwind is localization. The report says 'more wafer foundry demand shifting back to domestic', and TrendForce (2026-05-22) says customers in HV processes and CIS 'are increasingly turning to Chinese foundries for more stable pricing and capacity availability'. At the leading edge, TechInsights (2025-12-11) confirmed that Huawei's Kirin 9030 is made on SMIC's N+3, 'a scaled evolution of its 7nm-class technology', reached without EUV lithography. TrendForce (2026-04-29) reports SMIC is the only domestic player capable of 7nm, though Huawei is said to plan shifting part of its AI chip production to Hua Hong. The limits are export controls (Entity List since 2020), a technology gap to TSMC and Samsung that the company itself concedes, and the risk of structural oversupply in China's mature nodes. The verdict is a narrow moat built on domestic scale and being China's only 7nm-capable foundry. It is not a cost or technology lead over the global leaders.
評級: 窄
TrendForce's 2Q26 foundry ranking (2026-09-09) puts SMIC third worldwide. Its revenue rose 20% QoQ to more than $3 billion and its share 'edged up to 5.4%, narrowing the gap with Samsung' (5.9%), far behind TSMC at 72.5%. TrendForce (2026-04-29, citing Reuters) adds: 'Currently, SMIC remains the only domestic player capable of producing chips using 7nm.' Those advantages are real in its home market, which was 90.2% of 2Q26 revenue per the 2Q26 results. They are also bounded. The 2025 annual report concedes: 'Compared with global industry leaders, the Company remains a certain gap in technical capability, and the current market share is relatively limited.' It warns that numerous domestic and foreign entrants mean 'the production capacity may fall into a state of structural oversupply'. And it notes that 'The Company was added to the U.S. Entity List in 2020', which brings 'certain challenges to the Company's supply chain security and business stability'.
類型: 成本規模
The cited advantage is manufacturing scale in a capital-heavy industry. The 2025 annual report says the wafer foundry industry 'has high barriers to entry due to technological hurdles, talent requirements, and continuous capital investment'. It adds that 'The foundries' capacity scale effect and collaboration capabilities in local industry chain have become one of the important factors for customers' assessment of supply chain stability and completeness.' It calls SMIC 'the front runner in Chinese Mainland, with leading manufacturing capability, manufacturing scale and comprehensive services'. Monthly capacity reached 1,058,750 standard logic 8-inch equivalent wafers by the end of 2025, and 1,096,500 in 2Q26 per the 2Q26 results, with 2Q26 capital expenditure of $1,835.7 million. Scale has not protected margins: the report shows gross margin of 21.0% in 2025, 18.0% in 2024 and 19.3% in 2023, against 38.0% in 2022.
領先地位: 快速追隨者
TrendForce's 2Q26 ranking (2026-09-09) places SMIC third at 5.4%, narrowing the gap with second-placed Samsung Foundry (5.9%) but far behind TSMC (72.5%). SMIC's own 2025 annual report ranks it 'the second globally' among pure-play foundries by 2025 sales. On technology it trails. TechInsights (2025-12-11) says SMIC's N+3 'shows meaningful density improvements' but 'remains significantly less scaled than leading commercial 5nm nodes offered by TSMC and Samsung'. The annual report concedes 'a certain gap in technical capability' compared with global industry leaders.
定價權: 中等
Pricing is improving in a tight market but has been weak through the cycle. The 2025 annual report shows gross margin of 21.0% in 2025, 18.0% in 2024, 19.3% in 2023, 38.0% in 2022 and 30.8% in 2021. In 2Q26 gross margin rose to 25.3% from 20.1% in 1Q26 'due to the increase in average selling price and the product mix change', and the company guided 26% to 28% for 3Q26. TrendForce (2025-12-25) reports price increases 'mainly concentrated on its 8-inch BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) process platform and averaging around 10%'. TrendForce (2026-05-22) says SMIC 'negotiated price increases with customers for product categories facing supply shortages'. The annual report warns that if it 'fails to timely deliver competitive process technologies and platforms, it may face customer loss and weakened pricing power'.
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：trendforce.com
產業鏈位置
層級: foundry & packaging
- 上游（供應商）： ASML
- 下游（客戶）： —
- 競爭對手： Hua Hong Semiconductor
Upstream logic and specialty wafer foundry, mainly for Chinese chip designers. In 2Q26, 90.2% of revenue came from China. By application, consumer electronics was 44.2% of wafer revenue, smartphone 16.9%, industrial and automotive 16.5%, computer and tablet 15.6%, and connectivity and IoT 6.8%.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
訊號貢獻 編輯先驗
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 +0.06 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 neutral（分數 -0.23，信念度 8）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品線
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| Advanced FinFET logic (7nm-class N+2/N+3) · Advanced-node logic foundry SMIC's 7nm-class FinFET processes, made with DUV lithography. TechInsights (2025-12-11) confirmed that Huawei's Kirin 9030 in the Mate 80 Pro Max is built on N+3, 'a scaled evolution of its 7nm-class technology'. | 利基市場 TrendForce (2026-04-29, citing Reuters) reports: 'Currently, SMIC remains the only domestic player capable of producing chips using 7nm.' It also reports that Huawei 'is said to be planning to shift part of its AI chip production from SMIC to Hua Hong', and that Huali is targeting initial output of several thousand 7nm wafers per month by the end of 2026. No tracker gives a share figure. Globally the position is a captive domestic niche, not a share of the leading-edge market. | 中等 The barrier is export controls as much as technology. TrendForce reports that the U.S. moved to block tool shipments from Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA to two Hua Hong plants, which U.S. officials believe may be involved in producing China's most advanced chips. The same report says Huali reportedly began developing 7nm at Hua Hong's Fab 6 last year and is targeting initial output of several thousand 7nm wafers per month by the end of 2026, so a domestic rival is attempting the same node. TechInsights (2025-12-11) says N+3 shows how close SMIC is to 'a true 5nm-equivalent node without EUV lithography', and that it 'remains significantly less scaled than leading commercial 5nm nodes offered by TSMC and Samsung'. |
| BCD and power/analog platforms · Specialty mature-node foundry BCD (bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) and analog platforms on 8-inch and 12-inch wafers for power management, audio amplifiers, motor drivers and automotive chips. The 2025 annual report lists 90nm BCD and 8-inch automotive BCD among its ongoing R&D projects. | 未知 TrendForce (2025-12-25, citing chinastarmarket.cn) reports that 'China's foundries with BCD platforms currently include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, United Nova Technology, and CR Micro.' It gives no shares. SMIC's annual report claims 'leading advantages in segmented markets such as BCD, analog', but that is the company's own description, so no band is claimed. | 中等 Demand is tight but supply is contested. TrendForce says AI servers 'require large volumes of power-management chips, which in turn are consuming a significant share of BCD capacity', and that 'TSMC is scaling back its 8-inch capacity to focus on advanced nodes'. At least four Chinese foundries offer BCD, and VIS notified customers of similar increases. |
| High-voltage display driver platforms · Specialty mature-node foundry High-voltage processes for medium- and large-size screen display driver chips, including car screens. The 2025 annual report says mass production of the next-generation medium-size display driver platform has been achieved, and the large-size platform's process development is complete. | 未知 No tracker gives SMIC a display-driver share. TrendForce (2026-05-22) says demand for HV processes is moving to Chinese foundries in general. SMIC's annual report sets a goal 'To continuously expand more market share in medium and large display driver field', which states intent, not a share. | 低 Customers move on price and capacity. TrendForce (2026-05-22) says that 'with Taiwanese foundries shifting capacity and raising prices, customers in HV processes and CIS applications are increasingly turning to Chinese foundries for more stable pricing and capacity availability'. It says the shift has been evident since 2H25 and is driving strong demand for 90nm-and-above 12-inch wafers among Chinese foundries. |
| Wafer foundry services (8-inch and 12-inch) · Pure-play wafer foundry Foundry and technology services on 8-inch and 12-inch wafers. In 2Q26, 12-inch wafers were 78.2% of wafer revenue and 8-inch 21.8%, per the 2Q26 results. | 前三 TrendForce's 2Q26 ranking (2026-09-09) places SMIC third among the top 10 foundries. Revenue rose 20% QoQ to more than $3 billion and its market share 'edged up to 5.4%'. TSMC holds 72.5% and Samsung Foundry 5.9%. | 中等 SMIC's 2025 annual report says wafer foundry 'has high barriers to entry due to technological hurdles, talent requirements, and continuous capital investment'. It spent $1,835.7 million on capex in 2Q26 alone, per the 2Q26 results. The same report warns that numerous new entrants could push capacity into 'structural oversupply'. |
你正在看的是什麼
這些圖表繪製的是 Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-06-30）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，營收成長 28%，達到 $9.3B（FY2022→FY2025）; 毛利率從 38% 變為 21%; FY2025 淨利為 $685.1M。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-12。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 0.05 (USD 0.03–USD 0.06) · 9 | USD 3.1B (USD 3.0B–USD 3.2B) · 11 | +30% |
| FY 2026 | USD 0.18 (USD 0.14–USD 0.23) · 17 | USD 11.9B (USD 11.7B–USD 12.2B) · 22 | +22% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2026-11-12。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
現金流與流動性
資產負債表
部分近期數字取自 Yahoo Finance，用來補上最新 SEC 申報尚未發布的期間——已換算為美元，並與 SEC 申報期間核對過。
申報文件
- 2026Q2 · 申報於 2026-06-30 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- 2025Q4 · 申報於 2025-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2025 · 申報於 2025-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2024 · 申報於 2024-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2023 · 申報於 2023-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
顯示另外 1 份較早的申報文件
- FY2022 · 申報於 2022-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
關鍵比率與同業比較
正在與同業比較…
13F 無法告訴你的事
- 延遲 45 天以上。部位是所示季末的狀態，最晚可在其後 45 天才申報。
- 僅含多方，且限於美國掛牌商品。不含空方、現金、債券、外匯、境外或未上市部位；掛牌選擇權按名目金額申報，並不計入個別部位的股票價值。
- 1 億美元門檻。規模更小的經理人根本無須申報。
- 「佔 13F 比例」不等於「佔管理規模比例」。13F 只是一份不完整的部位表。
- 「已出清」只表示「不再申報」——未必真的賣掉了。
- 一個 CIK 可能彙總多個子實體。保密處理可以略去某些部位。
- 被動指數申報人 不是投資大師。他們的 13F 變動是指數資金流，因此已被排除在 TradingPilot 的聰明錢訊號之外。
- 量化機構須注意。量化機構（如 Renaissance）的 13F 是一份僅含多方的季末快照，並不反映其真實的高週轉、短週期策略。
- 投資大師頁面與其持股從不進入任何訊號（無權重）。
尚無標記的新聞。
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
即將到來
| 日期 | 類型 | 事件 | 影響 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 財報 | Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation earnings — Company-confirmed date. 已確認 | 中 |
已過去
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation earnings 已確認 | 中 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +4.8% |