Research
18 articles · newest first
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2026-10-26 Deep dive
Cerebras after the selloff: real demand, unfinished economics
Wafer-scale computing has won a place inside OpenAI. At a much lower share price, the harder question is how much of that technical success will reach shareholders.
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2026-10-13 Deep dive
Chip demand hasn't cracked. Confidence in who pays for it has
The chip index fell 7.4% in four sessions to 12 October, its second slide since June's record, while the demand figures stayed strong. What broke was confidence in the money behind them: one big customer's revenue, a build-out now running on debt, and a Fed raising rates again.
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2026-10-12 Deep dive
Meta's AI is paying off. The bill is growing faster
The second quarter of 2026 showed both halves at once: ad prices up 12%, helped by better AI ranking, and free cash flow down to $784 million under a $130-145 billion capex plan. Our read on which half wins.
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2026-10-07 Deep dive
Arm at 300 times earnings: opportunity or trap?
A great business priced as if its 2031 plan has already worked. At this price, we think the risks outweigh the story.
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2026-10-07 Deep dive
Will Gemini 4 Argon save Google? Wrong question
Google isn't sinking. Its real problems are the bill for AI and the assistant race, and Argon, still gated, can't fix either yet.
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2026-10-02 Deep dive
AAOI versus Credo: who keeps the profit from AI connectivity?
One is financing an optical manufacturing ramp; the other is extending a profitable connectivity platform. Their shareholder economics are very different.
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2026-10-01 Deep dive
Micron Technology Investment Deep Dive
AI memory demand, customer contracts, and the durability of Micron’s extraordinary profitability.
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2026-09-30 Weekly brief
Weekly brief: AI moves from components to systems
A rack order, a memory partnership and new agent controls put integration at the centre of this week’s AI buildout. The next test is delivery.
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2026-09-29 Deep dive
Bloom Energy's window is someone else's backlog
Bloom's annual report says its opening exists because turbine makers and grid operators cannot build fast enough; its 2026 filings show how quickly it is turning that borrowed time into a business, and how much of the result is still contingent.
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2026-09-17 Deep dive
Meta spent $72 billion and the stock fell
Four rivals publish a price per million tokens. Meta publishes an ad auction. That difference, not a benchmark, is the case for and against the bet.
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2026-09-16 Deep dive
Nokia's nine percent
The stock went up 4.7 times on a customer line worth EUR 446 million a quarter — and the company's own profit guidance never moved.
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2026-09-15 Deep dive
The duration mismatch at the heart of the AI build
Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and the neoclouds are all making the same trade. Their own filings disagree about how much of it they can afford.
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2026-09-08 Deep dive
Intel's bear case is in its own filing
Three flat years and conceded share loss in client and data centre, with the recovery staked on a process node whose next generation is built for customers the filing does not name.
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2026-09-07 Deep dive
OpenAI has released GPT-6 Astra. Is AGI actually arriving?
The first model OpenAI rates Critical for cybersecurity, and it found two zero-day vulnerabilities while being evaluated. It ships through Azure and Bedrock on day one, so what it reshapes fastest is not benchmarks but demand for silicon, memory and electricity.
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2026-09-06 Deep dive
Palantir sells the layer above the model
Its own annual report puts the large language model outside the company. The margin, the moat and the ceiling all follow from where that line is drawn.
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2026-09-04 Deep dive
The Cybercab, from one clause to a production line
Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi gets a single future-tense sentence in the annual report. Six months later it was in production — and the operating line shows what that cost.
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2026-09-03 Deep dive
Broadcom's two moats and one margin line
Custom silicon plus the network between the racks — a quarter that beat, a guide that split the horizons, and the named programs behind a $230 billion claim.
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2026-09-03 Deep dive
Credo and the copper window
A complete-suite interconnect vendor, roughly ninety percent sold to ten buyers — and what one quarter did to the price of that book.