研究
18 篇文章 · 最新在前
-
2026-10-26 深度研究
Cerebras after the selloff: real demand, unfinished economics
Wafer-scale computing has won a place inside OpenAI. At a much lower share price, the harder question is how much of that technical success will reach shareholders.
-
2026-10-13 深度研究
芯片需求没有崩，动摇的是“谁来买单”
费城半导体指数在截至10月12日的四个交易日里下跌7.4%，这是6月创下纪录后的第二轮下跌；同一时期公布的需求数据却依然强劲。真正动摇的是需求背后的钱：最大客户的收入、越来越依赖举债的算力建设，以及重新开始加息的美联储。
-
2026-10-12 深度研究
Meta的AI在赚钱，但账单涨得更快
2026年第二季度，同一份财报里出现了两组数字：广告单价上涨12%，AI排序是推手之一；而在1300亿至1450亿美元的资本开支计划下，自由现金流只剩7.84亿美元。哪一组更能说明问题？
-
2026-10-07 深度研究
Arm是机会还是陷阱？生意一流，价格已提前兑现五年
Arm是半导体行业最好的商业模式之一，但约300美元的股价已经假设未来五年的计划全部兑现，在这个价位上我们认为它更像陷阱而非机会。
-
2026-10-07 深度研究
Gemini 4 Argon 能拯救谷歌吗？
谷歌并不需要被拯救：Argon 能让前沿 AI 更便宜，却解决不了为 AI 买单和追赶 ChatGPT 这两道真正的难题，它是杠杆而非救星。
-
2026-10-02 深度研究
AAOI versus Credo: who keeps the profit from AI connectivity?
One is financing an optical manufacturing ramp; the other is extending a profitable connectivity platform. Their shareholder economics are very different.
-
2026-10-01 深度研究
Micron Technology Investment Deep Dive
AI memory demand, customer contracts, and the durability of Micron’s extraordinary profitability.
-
2026-09-30 每周简报
Weekly brief: AI moves from components to systems
A rack order, a memory partnership and new agent controls put integration at the centre of this week’s AI buildout. The next test is delivery.
-
2026-09-29 深度研究
Bloom Energy's window is someone else's backlog
Bloom's annual report says its opening exists because turbine makers and grid operators cannot build fast enough; its 2026 filings show how quickly it is turning that borrowed time into a business, and how much of the result is still contingent.
-
2026-09-17 深度研究
Meta spent $72 billion and the stock fell
Four rivals publish a price per million tokens. Meta publishes an ad auction. That difference, not a benchmark, is the case for and against the bet.
-
2026-09-16 深度研究
Nokia's nine percent
The stock went up 4.7 times on a customer line worth EUR 446 million a quarter — and the company's own profit guidance never moved.
-
2026-09-15 深度研究
The duration mismatch at the heart of the AI build
Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and the neoclouds are all making the same trade. Their own filings disagree about how much of it they can afford.
-
2026-09-08 深度研究
Intel's bear case is in its own filing
Three flat years and conceded share loss in client and data centre, with the recovery staked on a process node whose next generation is built for customers the filing does not name.
-
2026-09-07 深度研究
OpenAI has released GPT-6 Astra. Is AGI actually arriving?
The first model OpenAI rates Critical for cybersecurity, and it found two zero-day vulnerabilities while being evaluated. It ships through Azure and Bedrock on day one, so what it reshapes fastest is not benchmarks but demand for silicon, memory and electricity.
-
2026-09-06 深度研究
Palantir sells the layer above the model
Its own annual report puts the large language model outside the company. The margin, the moat and the ceiling all follow from where that line is drawn.
-
2026-09-04 深度研究
The Cybercab, from one clause to a production line
Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi gets a single future-tense sentence in the annual report. Six months later it was in production — and the operating line shows what that cost.
-
2026-09-03 深度研究
Broadcom's two moats and one margin line
Custom silicon plus the network between the racks — a quarter that beat, a guide that split the horizons, and the named programs behind a $230 billion claim.
-
2026-09-03 深度研究
Credo and the copper window
A complete-suite interconnect vendor, roughly ninety percent sold to ten buyers — and what one quarter did to the price of that book.