研究

18 篇文章 · 最新在前

2026-10-26 深度研究

Cerebras after the selloff: real demand, unfinished economics

Wafer-scale computing has won a place inside OpenAI. At a much lower share price, the harder question is how much of that technical success will reach shareholders.
2026-10-13 深度研究

Chip demand hasn't cracked. Confidence in who pays for it has

The chip index fell 7.4% in four sessions to 12 October, its second slide since June's record, while the demand figures stayed strong. What broke was confidence in the money behind them: one big customer's revenue, a build-out now running on debt, and a Fed raising rates again.
2026-10-12 深度研究

Meta's AI is paying off. The bill is growing faster

The second quarter of 2026 showed both halves at once: ad prices up 12%, helped by better AI ranking, and free cash flow down to $784 million under a $130-145 billion capex plan. Our read on which half wins.
2026-10-07 深度研究

Arm at 300 times earnings: opportunity or trap?

A great business priced as if its 2031 plan has already worked. At this price, we think the risks outweigh the story.
2026-10-07 深度研究

Will Gemini 4 Argon save Google? Wrong question

Google isn't sinking. Its real problems are the bill for AI and the assistant race, and Argon, still gated, can't fix either yet.
2026-10-02 深度研究

AAOI versus Credo: who keeps the profit from AI connectivity?

One is financing an optical manufacturing ramp; the other is extending a profitable connectivity platform. Their shareholder economics are very different.
2026-10-01 深度研究

Micron Technology Investment Deep Dive

AI memory demand, customer contracts, and the durability of Micron’s extraordinary profitability.
2026-09-30 每週簡報

Weekly brief: AI moves from components to systems

A rack order, a memory partnership and new agent controls put integration at the centre of this week’s AI buildout. The next test is delivery.
2026-09-29 深度研究

Bloom Energy's window is someone else's backlog

Bloom's annual report says its opening exists because turbine makers and grid operators cannot build fast enough; its 2026 filings show how quickly it is turning that borrowed time into a business, and how much of the result is still contingent.
2026-09-17 深度研究

Meta spent $72 billion and the stock fell

Four rivals publish a price per million tokens. Meta publishes an ad auction. That difference, not a benchmark, is the case for and against the bet.
2026-09-16 深度研究

Nokia's nine percent

The stock went up 4.7 times on a customer line worth EUR 446 million a quarter — and the company's own profit guidance never moved.
2026-09-15 深度研究

The duration mismatch at the heart of the AI build

Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and the neoclouds are all making the same trade. Their own filings disagree about how much of it they can afford.
2026-09-08 深度研究

Intel's bear case is in its own filing

Three flat years and conceded share loss in client and data centre, with the recovery staked on a process node whose next generation is built for customers the filing does not name.
2026-09-07 深度研究

OpenAI has released GPT-6 Astra. Is AGI actually arriving?

The first model OpenAI rates Critical for cybersecurity, and it found two zero-day vulnerabilities while being evaluated. It ships through Azure and Bedrock on day one, so what it reshapes fastest is not benchmarks but demand for silicon, memory and electricity.
2026-09-06 深度研究

Palantir sells the layer above the model

Its own annual report puts the large language model outside the company. The margin, the moat and the ceiling all follow from where that line is drawn.
2026-09-04 深度研究

The Cybercab, from one clause to a production line

Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi gets a single future-tense sentence in the annual report. Six months later it was in production — and the operating line shows what that cost.
2026-09-03 深度研究

Broadcom's two moats and one margin line

Custom silicon plus the network between the racks — a quarter that beat, a guide that split the horizons, and the named programs behind a $230 billion claim.
2026-09-03 深度研究

Credo and the copper window

A complete-suite interconnect vendor, roughly ninety percent sold to ten buyers — and what one quarter did to the price of that book.