chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU) · Industry Index 28 (rank #10) ·
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-10-30 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Intel designs and manufactures x86 CPUs, Gaudi AI accelerators, and operates a contract foundry business.
Industry exposure 0.4 (AI exposure comes from Xeon host CPUs, Gaudi accelerators, and foundry ambitions, but most revenue is PC and general-purpose compute.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:earnings just released on 29 October
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $64 PUT | 88 | mid-market · no side | +2 | 8,516 | 1703.2× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $60 PUT | 84 | buy-side | +15 | 30,992 | 15.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $75 CALL | 84 | buy-side | +17 | 22,896 | 224.5× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $70 CALL | 82 | — | -13 | 41,744 | 57.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $61 PUT | 78 | buy-side | +11 | 3,400 | 147.8× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $64 PUT | 77 | buy-side | +346 | 74,444 | 173.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $71 CALL | 74 | buy-side | -100 | 10,311 | 859.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $70 CALL | 68 | mid-market · no side | +400 | 7,062 | 14.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $74 CALL | 67 | mid-market · no side | 0 | 3,362 | 1120.7× |
11 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 3.6× its 13-day baseline
20% calls / 80% puts (by premium)
News set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a negative tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; news dissented. Directional agreement 0.65.
A clear neutral score; conviction 0.14 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
Still the incumbent x86 CPU designer-manufacturer — FY2025 revenue was $52.9 billion, roughly flat — but the filing concedes lost share in client and data center and an AI-driven customer shift toward GPUs; the counter-thesis is process IP, with Intel 18A shipping in Core Ultra Series 3 ('the first products to be manufactured using our new Intel 18A process technology') and Intel 14A 'designed from inception as an offering to external customers.'
Rating: eroding
The FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-01-23) repeats the concession, now broadened: 'we have lost market share in recent years, including in both client and data center markets, in the market for x86-based semiconductor products, and more generally in the markets for semiconductor compute products, as competitors have introduced highly competitive data center and client platform products.' It adds that the data-center business 'has been further negatively impacted in the past few years by the significant shift of customer spend toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads' — a historically wide moat still actively eroding.
Type: intangibles ip
The durable assets remain the x86 architecture and process-technology IP: the FY2025 10-K claims 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs and other semiconductor products' and stakes the recovery on process IP — 'Intel 18A introduces two industry firsts in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing: gate-all-around transistors (RibbonFET) and backside power delivery (PowerVia).'
Leadership: fast follower
The FY2025 10-K still opens 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs', yet concedes lost share 'in both client and data center markets' and a spend shift 'toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads' where Intel participates via 'Xeon, AI PCs, Arc GPUs and our open software stack' plus 'inference-optimized GPUs on a targeted annual cadence' — following the AI compute market rather than setting its pace.
Pricing power: weak
The FY2025 10-K states the mechanism itself: higher-priced products 'have lower margins as they are produced at external foundries rather than in our manufacturing facilities. To the extent demand shifts from our higher-margin to lower-margin products in any of our market segments, our gross margin percentage has decreased and may decrease again' — plus $878 million of 2025 inventory reserves on the early Intel 18A ramp.
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU)
x86 compute incumbent and would-be US leading-edge foundry; its 18A/14A ramp is the main Western alternative to TSMC at the leading edge.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted -0.24 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score 0.02, conviction 0).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| AI accelerators (Gaudi and inference-optimized GPUs) · AI accelerators Gaudi line plus a stated roadmap of inference-optimized GPUs on an annual cadence. | Niche The FY2025 10-K notes 'reduced Gaudi AI accelerator inventory-related charges relative to 2024' and describes plans for 'successive generations of inference-optimized GPUs on a targeted annual cadence' — a niche position in a market the filing says has shifted to rivals' GPUs. | Moderate Intel's IP and manufacturing base support entry, but the filing itself attributes the data-center impact to customer spend shifting toward competitors' AI GPUs. |
| Intel Core / Core Ultra (client PC CPUs) · Client CPUs PC processors including AI PC parts; Core Ultra Series 3 is the first Intel 18A product. | Leader The FY2025 10-K claims 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs' while reporting CCG revenue 'decreased 3% from 2024' and conceding lost client share — volume leadership under attack. | Moderate The x86 software ecosystem endures, but the filing's own admission of lost share to 'highly competitive data center and client platform products' shows the barrier no longer excludes rivals. |
| Intel Foundry (leading-edge contract manufacturing) · Foundry services Contract design and manufacturing services, ramping Intel 18A with Intel 14A designed for external customers. | Niche The FY2025 10-K says the Foundry segment 'also offers semiconductor design and manufacturing services to external customers' — a nascent external business, not a ranked merchant foundry. | Deep 'Intel 18A introduces two industry firsts in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing: gate-all-around transistors (RibbonFET) and backside power delivery (PowerVia)' — leading-edge process capability few firms on earth possess. |
| Intel Xeon (data center CPUs) · Server CPUs Data-center CPU line; positioned alongside inference-optimized GPUs in Intel's AI strategy. | Leader Incumbent x86 server line under the same 10-K leadership claim, but the filing concedes lost data-center share and that customer spend has shifted 'toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads.' | Moderate x86 server software compatibility remains a real switching cost; the AI-driven spend shift the 10-K describes routes around it rather than through it. |
These charts plot Intel's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-10-30. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at a loss of $267.0M in FY2025.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 0.40 (USD 0.37–USD 0.48) · 36 | USD 16.5B (USD 16.3B–USD 17.0B) · 36 | +21% |
| FY 2026 | USD 1.53 (USD 1.12–USD 1.74) · 41 | USD 63.2B (USD 58.7B–USD 66.2B) · 43 | +20% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-10-29.
Our model leans Low-confidence · Neutral on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 426,478,962 | $59.5B | -21,071,170 | 0.9% | 8.03% |
| State Street Passive / index | 216,849,675 | $30.3B | 2,528,657 | 0.9% | 4.08% |
| NVIDIA Corporate | 214,776,632 | $30.0B | 0 | 47.3% | 4.04% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 94,431,754 | $13.2B | 36,916,621 | 0.6% | 1.78% |
| Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont) Guru | 12,084,027 | $1.7B | 12,084,027 | 3.5% | 0.23% |
| Renaissance Technologies Guru | 7,321,928 | $1.0B | -77,466 | 1.4% | 0.14% |
| Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman) Guru | 4,252,690 | $593.8M | 2,613,990 | 2.5% | 0.08% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 32,371 | $4.5M | 32,371 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
| Position | Shares | Value | Reported price | % of book | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobileye Global Inc. | 50,000,000 | $484.0M | $9.68 | 78.0% | Held |
| Joby Aviation Inc. | 15,316,315 | $136.6M | $8.92 | 22.0% | New |
Showing all 2 reported 13(f) positions; 0 link to the TradingPilot universe. Reported price is value ÷ shares at the quarter-end — an average, not a buy/sell price.
| Investee | What | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scale AI | Intel Capital joined Scale's $1B Series F at a $13.8B valuation as a new investor (individual amount undisclosed) | 2024-05-21 | active |
Yahoo Finance (Business Wire) · 2026-10-27 · product
Intel and Oracle announced a planned multiyear collaboration covering current and future Xeon platforms, capacity planning and planned Diamond Rapids-based OCI offerings. Future products and roadmap coordination remain plans.
Applied Materials · 2026-10-12 · product
Applied Materials unveiled its Equipment and Process Innovation and Commercialization (EPIC) Center at its Sunnyvale, California, campus, a $5 billion capital investment in a 600,000-square-foot facility with nearly four acres of advanced cleanroom space. Founding partners TSMC, Intel, Samsung Electronics, Micron and SK hynix are joined by innovation partners including Broadcom, Advantest and KIOXIA.
Intel · 2026-10-12 · product
At the OCP Global Summit, Intel shared new technical details on the Intel GPU D-series, formerly code-named Crescent Island, which combines up to 480 GB of LPDDR5X memory, 1.5 TB/s of memory bandwidth and 1.3 petaflops of FP8 compute within a 350-watt power envelope, with customer sampling underway. Intel also introduced Xeon-based rack designs, with select Xeon 6+ configurations scaling beyond 46,000 cores per rack at 133.45 kW total rack power.
Astera Labs · 2026-10-08 · product
Astera Labs announced its Aries 7 PCIe 7 signal conditioning portfolio spanning smart retimers, redrivers, cable modules, optical drivers and optical TIAs, extending reach from centimeters of PCB trace to 50+ meters over optical cables spanning multiple racks. The products are expected to begin sampling in Q4 2026 to select hyperscale, OEM and NPO customers. AMD and Intel, which have each validated Aries Smart Retimers in production from PCIe 4 through 6, are collaborating with Astera Labs on the transition to PCIe 7.
GlobeNewswire · 2026-10-06 · partnership
Applied Materials is working with Intel to accelerate development of next-generation transistors, interconnects and advanced packaging, linking Applied's EPIC Center in Silicon Valley with Intel's R&D campus in Hillsboro, Oregon. No financial terms were disclosed.
The Motley Fool · 2026-10-05 · partnership
Elon Musk said on X that Terafab, the chip-manufacturing project his companies are planning in Texas, is in talks with TSMC: "Just discussions, but something may come of it." Intel joined Terafab in April and has been its only named chip partner.
Google · 2026-09-21 · product
Google opened pre-orders for Googlebook, its new category of Android-based laptops designed for Gemini, with initial devices built by Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo on Intel and Qualcomm processors. Prices start at $899, and devices arrive on U.S. shelves starting October 4.
Verdict · 2026-09-17 · partnership
Verdict, citing Reuters, reports SK Hynix is in discussions with Intel about producing memory chips in the US for the first time, with scenarios including SK Hynix leasing part of Intel's planned Ohio facility or forming a partnership. A source described the discussions as initial and exploratory with no definite decision reached. SK Hynix said nothing has been finalised regarding cooperation with any specific companies mentioned in the article, and Intel declined to comment while confirming ongoing Ohio investment.
PR Newswire · 2026-09-14 · funding
Construction-AI company Buildots announced a $130 million round led by O.G. Venture Partners, with participation from Lightspeed Venture Partners, Intel Capital, Mohari Ventures, Human Capital, Qumra Capital, Avigdor Willenz, Viola Growth and Poalim Equity, bringing total capital raised to $297 million.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-11 · product
Intel said it has processed over one million wafers through High-NA EUV lithography, which it claims exceeds the rest of the industry combined. The figure is a process-maturity marker for its 18A and successor nodes and for its foundry pitch.
Intel · 2026-09-11 · partnership
Intel Foundry and ASML said their joint High-NA EUV work has passed one million wafers processed and is moving the tool toward production readiness. Intel remains the lead customer proving out ASML's next-generation lithography.
Reuters · 2026-09-10 · funding
Altera, the FPGA business Intel sold a majority stake in to Silver Lake, is preparing an IPO that could raise more than $2 billion as soon as 2026. Intel retains a minority stake in the company.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-09-08 · product
Intel said it has processed more than one million wafers on High-NA EUV tooling, more than the rest of the industry combined, and is pioneering 6x12 photomasks to speed production and cut cost. It is a concrete marker of its advanced-node manufacturing ramp.
Barchart · 2026-08-17 · funding
Intel completed an upsized follow-on equity offering that, including the 30-day option given to underwriters to purchase additional shares, raised about $23 billion — up from an initial $15 billion offering that was increased to $20 billion. Proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes including capital expenditures and working capital, supporting Intel Foundry expansion and data-center build-outs. The raise marks a shift toward funding the capital-intensive manufacturing and AI build-out with fresh equity rather than additional debt.
Google News: Intel · 2026-07-15 · product
Intel becomes the first chipmaker to deploy ASML's High-NA EUV lithography tool in mass chip production.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-03 · product
Intel confirmed price increases on select consumer and server CPUs, citing supply costs and demand, with some Xeon processors rising over $1,000.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-03 · product
A report claims Intel has resolved wafer-to-wafer yield issues on its 18A process, with production reaching up to 15,000 wafers per month at both sites.
Wccftech · 2026-07-03 · partnership
Apple reportedly plans to adopt Intel's 18A process to manufacture the A20 chip for the base iPhone 18, advancing its dual-foundry strategy.
The Mercury News · 2026-07-01 · product
Intel broke ground on a new chip manufacturing hub in Santa Clara, California.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-01 · personnel
Tesla hired 17-year Intel veteran Gary Jiang to oversee fab efforts for its Terafab project, which is tied to licensing Intel's 14A process.
2026-10-30 MarketWatch Top Stories · Why Intel’s stock saw its worst day in decades — and a $140 billion wipeout
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel stock has worst day since 1970s, wiping about $12 billion off government's stake
2026-10-30 MarketWatch Top Stories · After Intel’s historic stock drop, analysts say there’s no reason to buy the dip
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Jim Cramer reveals 3 stocks to buy — plus, why he is not selling the Intel plunge
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel plunges on a major guidance miss. What went wrong — and how to proceed
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel stock plunges 21% as chipmaker blames PC slowdown for weak guidance
2026-10-29 Business Wire AI · Intel Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: TSM · Intel Stock Enters Earnings With High Hopes From Analysts
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Intel to report Q3 earnings as chip stocks continue to rebound
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel (INTC) reports earnings tomorrow: what to expect
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Intel Just Fell 24% in a Month: What Will It Take to Get INTC Stock Back Above $100?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel Just Made a $2.3 Billion Quantum Buy and Is Spending Again. Can Cash Flow Keep Up?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Ahead of Intel Earnings, Here's What Barchart Data Says Comes Next for INTC Stock
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Critical Incident Monitoring Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) - Capitalize on the $6.4B Market by 2032; Track Boeing, Draganfly, EHang, Hexagon and Intel
2026-10-27 CNBC Top News · What's behind the AI trade comeback — plus, our take on Intel's latest deal
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel faces test of recovery as Wedbush looks beyond Q3 results
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel Quantum Acquisition Might Not Be Enough to Make It a Powerhouse
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel to acquire Classiq to build full-stack quantum computing platform
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Can Slightly Higher Processor Revenues Aid Intel's Q3 Earnings?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Can Higher Data Center Revenues Propel Intel's Q3 Earnings?
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-28 | earnings | Intel earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. estimated | High |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Intel earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · Rev beat |
| 2026-07-23 | Intel earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · -7.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | Intel earnings confirmed | High | EPS beat · +23.6% |
