chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU) · 產業指數 27 (排名 #11) ·
價格: 截至 2026-11-03 指數: 截至 2026-11-03 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-10-30 按季揭露（10-Q XBRL）
Intel designs and manufactures x86 CPUs, Gaudi AI accelerators, and operates a contract foundry business.
產業曝險 0.4 (AI exposure comes from Xeon host CPUs, Gaudi accelerators, and foundry ambitions, but most revenue is PC and general-purpose compute.)
延遲的日終逐合約彙總資料——不是即時盤口，也不是逐筆資金流。買賣方向是根據每個合約最後一筆成交在買賣價差中的位置推斷出來的，並非觀測到的委託流。除非有報價的合約佔當日權利金的四分之一以上，否則公司層級的方向會被隱去，因此下方個別合約有方向時這裡也可能為空。買權/賣權權利金是在我們擷取的合約範圍內計算的——最近的 6 個到期日、45 天以內，並非完整選擇權鏈——而下表最多列出 20 個被標記的合約，所以把這些列加總不會還原出上面的百分比。
標記原因：FOMC Rate Decision in 1 day
| 日期 | 合約 | 異常分數 | 買賣方向（推斷）? | 未平倉變動? | 成交量 | 成交量/未平倉 | 標記 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | $65 CALL | 58 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +7,230 | 23,643 | 1.3× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $62 CALL | 56 | 買方主動 | +4,954 | 17,082 | 2.4× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $55 PUT | 53 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +2,266 | 12,725 | 2.1× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $55 PUT | 50 | 買方主動 | +9,291 | 16,466 | 1.0× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $63 CALL | 47 | 賣方主動 | +4,712 | 12,112 | 2.0× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $70 CALL | 45 | 買方主動 | +6,455 | 18,543 | 0.9× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $61 PUT | 43 | — | +15 | 10,736 | 6.1× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $64 CALL | 43 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +591 | 13,515 | 1.7× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $63 CALL | 42 | 賣方主動 | +790 | 2,747 | 3.0× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $62 CALL | 42 | 賣方主動 | +376 | 1,491 | 3.3× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $45 CALL | 39 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +3 | 8,142 | 428.5× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $60 PUT | 39 | 賣方主動 | +8,471 | 27,941 | 1.2× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $70 CALL | 38 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +964 | 4,109 | 0.9× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $65 CALL | 38 | — | +1,225 | 2,868 | 0.8× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $68 CALL | 36 | 賣方主動 | +966 | 8,193 | 1.6× | |
| 2026-11-03 | $60 CALL | 35 | 買方主動 | +3,166 | 8,795 | 1.9× |
4 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：為 13 日基準的 0.7 倍
買權 22% / 賣權 78%（按權利金）
新聞 定下了基調，但群體不願下結論——負向傾斜加上薄弱的一致度，因此結論為中性。
多數投票者傾向一致；新聞 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.65。
一個明確的中性分數；信心度 0.14 反映的是代理人之間的一致強度。信心度是信心，不是價格變動的機率。
Still the incumbent x86 CPU designer-manufacturer — FY2025 revenue was $52.9 billion, roughly flat — but the filing concedes lost share in client and data center and an AI-driven customer shift toward GPUs; the counter-thesis is process IP, with Intel 18A shipping in Core Ultra Series 3 ('the first products to be manufactured using our new Intel 18A process technology') and Intel 14A 'designed from inception as an offering to external customers.'
評級: 正在侵蝕
The FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-01-23) repeats the concession, now broadened: 'we have lost market share in recent years, including in both client and data center markets, in the market for x86-based semiconductor products, and more generally in the markets for semiconductor compute products, as competitors have introduced highly competitive data center and client platform products.' It adds that the data-center business 'has been further negatively impacted in the past few years by the significant shift of customer spend toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads' — a historically wide moat still actively eroding.
類型: 無形資產與智慧財產
The durable assets remain the x86 architecture and process-technology IP: the FY2025 10-K claims 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs and other semiconductor products' and stakes the recovery on process IP — 'Intel 18A introduces two industry firsts in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing: gate-all-around transistors (RibbonFET) and backside power delivery (PowerVia).'
領先地位: 快速追隨者
The FY2025 10-K still opens 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs', yet concedes lost share 'in both client and data center markets' and a spend shift 'toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads' where Intel participates via 'Xeon, AI PCs, Arc GPUs and our open software stack' plus 'inference-optimized GPUs on a targeted annual cadence' — following the AI compute market rather than setting its pace.
定價權: 弱
The FY2025 10-K states the mechanism itself: higher-priced products 'have lower margins as they are produced at external foundries rather than in our manufacturing facilities. To the extent demand shifts from our higher-margin to lower-margin products in any of our market segments, our gross margin percentage has decreased and may decrease again' — plus $878 million of 2025 inventory reserves on the early Intel 18A ramp.
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：sec.gov
層級: chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU)
x86 compute incumbent and would-be US leading-edge foundry; its 18A/14A ramp is the main Western alternative to TSMC at the leading edge.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 -0.24 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 neutral（分數 0.02，信念度 0）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| AI accelerators (Gaudi and inference-optimized GPUs) · AI accelerators Gaudi line plus a stated roadmap of inference-optimized GPUs on an annual cadence. | 利基市場 The FY2025 10-K notes 'reduced Gaudi AI accelerator inventory-related charges relative to 2024' and describes plans for 'successive generations of inference-optimized GPUs on a targeted annual cadence' — a niche position in a market the filing says has shifted to rivals' GPUs. | 中等 Intel's IP and manufacturing base support entry, but the filing itself attributes the data-center impact to customer spend shifting toward competitors' AI GPUs. |
| Intel Core / Core Ultra (client PC CPUs) · Client CPUs PC processors including AI PC parts; Core Ultra Series 3 is the first Intel 18A product. | 領先 The FY2025 10-K claims 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs' while reporting CCG revenue 'decreased 3% from 2024' and conceding lost client share — volume leadership under attack. | 中等 The x86 software ecosystem endures, but the filing's own admission of lost share to 'highly competitive data center and client platform products' shows the barrier no longer excludes rivals. |
| Intel Foundry (leading-edge contract manufacturing) · Foundry services Contract design and manufacturing services, ramping Intel 18A with Intel 14A designed for external customers. | 利基市場 The FY2025 10-K says the Foundry segment 'also offers semiconductor design and manufacturing services to external customers' — a nascent external business, not a ranked merchant foundry. | 深 'Intel 18A introduces two industry firsts in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing: gate-all-around transistors (RibbonFET) and backside power delivery (PowerVia)' — leading-edge process capability few firms on earth possess. |
| Intel Xeon (data center CPUs) · Server CPUs Data-center CPU line; positioned alongside inference-optimized GPUs in Intel's AI strategy. | 領先 Incumbent x86 server line under the same 10-K leadership claim, but the filing concedes lost data-center share and that customer spend has shifted 'toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads.' | 中等 x86 server software compatibility remains a real switching cost; the AI-driven spend shift the 10-K describes routes around it rather than through it. |
這些圖表繪製的是 Intel 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-10-30）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，FY2025 淨損 $267.0M。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-11-02。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Dec 2026 | USD 0.25 (USD 0.21–USD 0.27) · 32 | USD 15.7B (USD 15.2B–USD 17.9B) · 35 | +15% |
| FY 2026 | USD 1.49 (USD 1.45–USD 1.52) · 35 | USD 61.8B (USD 58.7B–USD 64.4B) · 45 | +17% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2027-01-28。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
正在與同業比較…
| 機構 | 股數 | 金額 | 季增減股數 | 佔 13F 比例 | 佔流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被動 / 指數 | 426,478,962 | $59.5B | -21,071,170 | 0.9% | 8.02% |
| State Street 被動 / 指數 | 216,849,675 | $30.3B | 2,528,657 | 0.9% | 4.08% |
| NVIDIA 企業 | 214,776,632 | $30.0B | 0 | 47.3% | 4.04% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被動 / 指數 | 94,431,754 | $13.2B | 36,916,621 | 0.6% | 1.78% |
| Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont) 大師 | 12,084,027 | $1.7B | 12,084,027 | 3.5% | 0.23% |
| Renaissance Technologies 大師 | 7,321,928 | $1.0B | -77,466 | 1.4% | 0.14% |
| Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman) 大師 | 4,252,690 | $593.8M | 2,613,990 | 2.5% | 0.08% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大師 | 32,371 | $4.5M | 32,371 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot 計算的欄位（佔 13F 比例、佔流通股比例）由申報原值推導而來；只有名稱、股數與金額是申報原值。
| 部位 | 股數 | 金額 | 申報均價 | 佔投組比例 | 異動 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobileye Global Inc. | 50,000,000 | $484.0M | $9.68 | 78.0% | 維持 |
| Joby Aviation Inc. | 15,316,315 | $136.6M | $8.92 | 22.0% | 新建部位 |
顯示全部 2 個申報的 13(f) 部位；其中 0 個可連結到 TradingPilot 的公司庫。申報均價為金額 ÷ 股數（季末口徑）——這是一個平均值，不是買進或賣出價。
| 被投公司 | 內容 | 日期 | 狀態 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scale AI | Intel Capital joined Scale's $1B Series F at a $13.8B valuation as a new investor (individual amount undisclosed) | 2024-05-21 | active |
Yahoo Finance (Business Wire) · 2026-10-27 · 產品
Intel and Oracle announced a planned multiyear collaboration covering current and future Xeon platforms, capacity planning and planned Diamond Rapids-based OCI offerings. Future products and roadmap coordination remain plans.
Applied Materials · 2026-10-12 · 產品
Applied Materials unveiled its Equipment and Process Innovation and Commercialization (EPIC) Center at its Sunnyvale, California, campus, a $5 billion capital investment in a 600,000-square-foot facility with nearly four acres of advanced cleanroom space. Founding partners TSMC, Intel, Samsung Electronics, Micron and SK hynix are joined by innovation partners including Broadcom, Advantest and KIOXIA.
Intel · 2026-10-12 · 產品
At the OCP Global Summit, Intel shared new technical details on the Intel GPU D-series, formerly code-named Crescent Island, which combines up to 480 GB of LPDDR5X memory, 1.5 TB/s of memory bandwidth and 1.3 petaflops of FP8 compute within a 350-watt power envelope, with customer sampling underway. Intel also introduced Xeon-based rack designs, with select Xeon 6+ configurations scaling beyond 46,000 cores per rack at 133.45 kW total rack power.
Astera Labs · 2026-10-08 · 產品
Astera Labs announced its Aries 7 PCIe 7 signal conditioning portfolio spanning smart retimers, redrivers, cable modules, optical drivers and optical TIAs, extending reach from centimeters of PCB trace to 50+ meters over optical cables spanning multiple racks. The products are expected to begin sampling in Q4 2026 to select hyperscale, OEM and NPO customers. AMD and Intel, which have each validated Aries Smart Retimers in production from PCIe 4 through 6, are collaborating with Astera Labs on the transition to PCIe 7.
GlobeNewswire · 2026-10-06 · 合作
Applied Materials is working with Intel to accelerate development of next-generation transistors, interconnects and advanced packaging, linking Applied's EPIC Center in Silicon Valley with Intel's R&D campus in Hillsboro, Oregon. No financial terms were disclosed.
The Motley Fool · 2026-10-05 · 合作
Elon Musk said on X that Terafab, the chip-manufacturing project his companies are planning in Texas, is in talks with TSMC: "Just discussions, but something may come of it." Intel joined Terafab in April and has been its only named chip partner.
Google · 2026-09-21 · 產品
Google opened pre-orders for Googlebook, its new category of Android-based laptops designed for Gemini, with initial devices built by Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo on Intel and Qualcomm processors. Prices start at $899, and devices arrive on U.S. shelves starting October 4.
Verdict · 2026-09-17 · 合作
Verdict, citing Reuters, reports SK Hynix is in discussions with Intel about producing memory chips in the US for the first time, with scenarios including SK Hynix leasing part of Intel's planned Ohio facility or forming a partnership. A source described the discussions as initial and exploratory with no definite decision reached. SK Hynix said nothing has been finalised regarding cooperation with any specific companies mentioned in the article, and Intel declined to comment while confirming ongoing Ohio investment.
PR Newswire · 2026-09-14 · 融資
Construction-AI company Buildots announced a $130 million round led by O.G. Venture Partners, with participation from Lightspeed Venture Partners, Intel Capital, Mohari Ventures, Human Capital, Qumra Capital, Avigdor Willenz, Viola Growth and Poalim Equity, bringing total capital raised to $297 million.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-11 · 產品
Intel said it has processed over one million wafers through High-NA EUV lithography, which it claims exceeds the rest of the industry combined. The figure is a process-maturity marker for its 18A and successor nodes and for its foundry pitch.
Intel · 2026-09-11 · 合作
Intel Foundry and ASML said their joint High-NA EUV work has passed one million wafers processed and is moving the tool toward production readiness. Intel remains the lead customer proving out ASML's next-generation lithography.
Reuters · 2026-09-10 · 融資
Altera, the FPGA business Intel sold a majority stake in to Silver Lake, is preparing an IPO that could raise more than $2 billion as soon as 2026. Intel retains a minority stake in the company.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-09-08 · 產品
Intel said it has processed more than one million wafers on High-NA EUV tooling, more than the rest of the industry combined, and is pioneering 6x12 photomasks to speed production and cut cost. It is a concrete marker of its advanced-node manufacturing ramp.
Barchart · 2026-08-17 · 融資
Intel completed an upsized follow-on equity offering that, including the 30-day option given to underwriters to purchase additional shares, raised about $23 billion — up from an initial $15 billion offering that was increased to $20 billion. Proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes including capital expenditures and working capital, supporting Intel Foundry expansion and data-center build-outs. The raise marks a shift toward funding the capital-intensive manufacturing and AI build-out with fresh equity rather than additional debt.
Google News: Intel · 2026-07-15 · 產品
Intel becomes the first chipmaker to deploy ASML's High-NA EUV lithography tool in mass chip production.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-03 · 產品
Intel confirmed price increases on select consumer and server CPUs, citing supply costs and demand, with some Xeon processors rising over $1,000.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-03 · 產品
A report claims Intel has resolved wafer-to-wafer yield issues on its 18A process, with production reaching up to 15,000 wafers per month at both sites.
Wccftech · 2026-07-03 · 合作
Apple reportedly plans to adopt Intel's 18A process to manufacture the A20 chip for the base iPhone 18, advancing its dual-foundry strategy.
The Mercury News · 2026-07-01 · 產品
Intel broke ground on a new chip manufacturing hub in Santa Clara, California.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-01 · 人事
Tesla hired 17-year Intel veteran Gary Jiang to oversee fab efforts for its Terafab project, which is tied to licensing Intel's 14A process.
2026-11-02 CNBC Top News · Intel foundry push faces critical test after stock's 45% plunge in October
2026-11-02 PR Newswire Aerospace/Defense · INTC SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION: SueWallSt Notifies Investors of Potential Securities Claims Involving Intel
2026-11-02 PR Newswire Energy · ZKH and Intel Bring Industrial Multimodal AI to the Edge with LingLong Insight 1.0
2026-10-30 MarketWatch Top Stories · Why Intel’s stock saw its worst day in decades — and a $140 billion wipeout
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel stock has worst day since 1970s, wiping about $12 billion off government's stake
2026-10-30 MarketWatch Top Stories · After Intel’s historic stock drop, analysts say there’s no reason to buy the dip
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Jim Cramer reveals 3 stocks to buy — plus, why he is not selling the Intel plunge
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel plunges on a major guidance miss. What went wrong — and how to proceed
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel stock plunges 21% as chipmaker blames PC slowdown for weak guidance
2026-10-29 Business Wire AI · Intel Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: TSM · Intel Stock Enters Earnings With High Hopes From Analysts
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Intel to report Q3 earnings as chip stocks continue to rebound
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel (INTC) reports earnings tomorrow: what to expect
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Intel Just Fell 24% in a Month: What Will It Take to Get INTC Stock Back Above $100?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel Just Made a $2.3 Billion Quantum Buy and Is Spending Again. Can Cash Flow Keep Up?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Ahead of Intel Earnings, Here's What Barchart Data Says Comes Next for INTC Stock
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Critical Incident Monitoring Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) - Capitalize on the $6.4B Market by 2032; Track Boeing, Draganfly, EHang, Hexagon and Intel
2026-10-27 CNBC Top News · What's behind the AI trade comeback — plus, our take on Intel's latest deal
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel faces test of recovery as Wedbush looks beyond Q3 results
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel Quantum Acquisition Might Not Be Enough to Make It a Powerhouse
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
| 日期 | 類型 | 事件 | 影響 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-28 | 財報 | Intel earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. 預估 | 高 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Intel earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · 營收優於預期 · -28.6% |
| 2026-07-23 | Intel earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · -7.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | Intel earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +23.6% |
