chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU) · 产业指数 28 (排名 #10) ·
价格: 截至 2026-10-30 指数: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-10-30 按季披露（10-Q XBRL）
Intel 设计并制造 x86 CPU 与 Gaudi AI 加速器，并经营晶圆代工业务。
产业敞口 0.4 (AI 敞口来自 Xeon 主机 CPU、Gaudi 加速器与晶圆代工方面的布局，但大部分营收来自 PC 与通用计算。)
延迟的日终逐合约汇总数据——不是实时盘口，也不是逐笔资金流。买卖方向是根据每个合约最后一笔成交在买卖价差中的位置推断出来的，并非观测到的委托流。除非有报价的合约占当日权利金的四分之一以上，否则公司层面的方向会被隐去，因此下方个别合约有方向时这里也可能为空。看跌/看涨权利金是在我们采集的合约范围内计算的——最近的 6 个到期日、45 天以内，并非完整期权链——而下表最多列出 20 个被标记的合约，所以把这些行加总不会还原出上面的百分比。
标记原因：earnings just released on 29 October
| 日期 | 合约 | 异常分 | 买卖方向（推断）? | 持仓量变动? | 成交量 | 成交量/持仓量 | 标记 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $64 PUT | 88 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +2 | 8,516 | 1703.2× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $60 PUT | 84 | 买方主动 | +15 | 30,992 | 15.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $75 CALL | 84 | 买方主动 | +17 | 22,896 | 224.5× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $70 CALL | 82 | — | -13 | 41,744 | 57.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $61 PUT | 78 | 买方主动 | +11 | 3,400 | 147.8× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $64 PUT | 77 | 买方主动 | +346 | 74,444 | 173.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $71 CALL | 74 | 买方主动 | -100 | 10,311 | 859.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $70 CALL | 68 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +400 | 7,062 | 14.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $74 CALL | 67 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | 0 | 3,362 | 1120.7× |
11 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：为 13 日基准的 3.6 倍
看涨 20% / 看跌 80%（按权利金）
新闻 定下了基调，但群体不愿下结论——负向倾斜叠加薄弱的一致度，因此结论为中性。
多数投票者倾向一致；新闻 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.65。
一个明确的中性分数；置信度 0.14 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
Still the incumbent x86 CPU designer-manufacturer — FY2025 revenue was $52.9 billion, roughly flat — but the filing concedes lost share in client and data center and an AI-driven customer shift toward GPUs; the counter-thesis is process IP, with Intel 18A shipping in Core Ultra Series 3 ('the first products to be manufactured using our new Intel 18A process technology') and Intel 14A 'designed from inception as an offering to external customers.'
评级: 正在侵蚀
The FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-01-23) repeats the concession, now broadened: 'we have lost market share in recent years, including in both client and data center markets, in the market for x86-based semiconductor products, and more generally in the markets for semiconductor compute products, as competitors have introduced highly competitive data center and client platform products.' It adds that the data-center business 'has been further negatively impacted in the past few years by the significant shift of customer spend toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads' — a historically wide moat still actively eroding.
类型: 无形资产与知识产权
The durable assets remain the x86 architecture and process-technology IP: the FY2025 10-K claims 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs and other semiconductor products' and stakes the recovery on process IP — 'Intel 18A introduces two industry firsts in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing: gate-all-around transistors (RibbonFET) and backside power delivery (PowerVia).'
领先地位: 快速追随者
The FY2025 10-K still opens 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs', yet concedes lost share 'in both client and data center markets' and a spend shift 'toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads' where Intel participates via 'Xeon, AI PCs, Arc GPUs and our open software stack' plus 'inference-optimized GPUs on a targeted annual cadence' — following the AI compute market rather than setting its pace.
定价权: 弱
The FY2025 10-K states the mechanism itself: higher-priced products 'have lower margins as they are produced at external foundries rather than in our manufacturing facilities. To the extent demand shifts from our higher-margin to lower-margin products in any of our market segments, our gross margin percentage has decreased and may decrease again' — plus $878 million of 2025 inventory reserves on the early Intel 18A ramp.
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：sec.gov
层级: chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU)
x86 compute incumbent and would-be US leading-edge foundry; its 18A/14A ramp is the main Western alternative to TSMC at the leading edge.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 -0.24 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 0.02，信念度 0）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| AI accelerators (Gaudi and inference-optimized GPUs) · AI accelerators Gaudi line plus a stated roadmap of inference-optimized GPUs on an annual cadence. | 细分市场 The FY2025 10-K notes 'reduced Gaudi AI accelerator inventory-related charges relative to 2024' and describes plans for 'successive generations of inference-optimized GPUs on a targeted annual cadence' — a niche position in a market the filing says has shifted to rivals' GPUs. | 中等 Intel's IP and manufacturing base support entry, but the filing itself attributes the data-center impact to customer spend shifting toward competitors' AI GPUs. |
| Intel Core / Core Ultra (client PC CPUs) · Client CPUs PC processors including AI PC parts; Core Ultra Series 3 is the first Intel 18A product. | 领先 The FY2025 10-K claims 'We are a global leader in the design and manufacturing of CPUs' while reporting CCG revenue 'decreased 3% from 2024' and conceding lost client share — volume leadership under attack. | 中等 The x86 software ecosystem endures, but the filing's own admission of lost share to 'highly competitive data center and client platform products' shows the barrier no longer excludes rivals. |
| Intel Foundry (leading-edge contract manufacturing) · Foundry services Contract design and manufacturing services, ramping Intel 18A with Intel 14A designed for external customers. | 细分市场 The FY2025 10-K says the Foundry segment 'also offers semiconductor design and manufacturing services to external customers' — a nascent external business, not a ranked merchant foundry. | 深 'Intel 18A introduces two industry firsts in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing: gate-all-around transistors (RibbonFET) and backside power delivery (PowerVia)' — leading-edge process capability few firms on earth possess. |
| Intel Xeon (data center CPUs) · Server CPUs Data-center CPU line; positioned alongside inference-optimized GPUs in Intel's AI strategy. | 领先 Incumbent x86 server line under the same 10-K leadership claim, but the filing concedes lost data-center share and that customer spend has shifted 'toward GPUs optimized for AI workloads.' | 中等 x86 server software compatibility remains a real switching cost; the AI-driven spend shift the 10-K describes routes around it rather than through it. |
这些图表绘制的是 Intel 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-10-30）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，FY2025 净亏损 $267.0M。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-10-26。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 0.40 (USD 0.37–USD 0.48) · 36 | USD 16.5B (USD 16.3B–USD 17.0B) · 36 | +21% |
| FY 2026 | USD 1.53 (USD 1.12–USD 1.74) · 41 | USD 63.2B (USD 58.7B–USD 66.2B) · 43 | +20% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
下次财报约在 2026-10-29。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
正在与同业比较…
| 机构 | 股数 | 金额 | 环比股数变动 | 占 13F 比例 | 占流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被动 / 指数 | 426,478,962 | $59.5B | -21,071,170 | 0.9% | 8.03% |
| State Street 被动 / 指数 | 216,849,675 | $30.3B | 2,528,657 | 0.9% | 4.08% |
| NVIDIA 企业 | 214,776,632 | $30.0B | 0 | 47.3% | 4.04% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被动 / 指数 | 94,431,754 | $13.2B | 36,916,621 | 0.6% | 1.78% |
| Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont) 大师 | 12,084,027 | $1.7B | 12,084,027 | 3.5% | 0.23% |
| Renaissance Technologies 大师 | 7,321,928 | $1.0B | -77,466 | 1.4% | 0.14% |
| Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman) 大师 | 4,252,690 | $593.8M | 2,613,990 | 2.5% | 0.08% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大师 | 32,371 | $4.5M | 32,371 | 0.0% | 0.00% |
TradingPilot 计算的列（占 13F 比例、占流通股比例）由申报原值推导而来；只有名称、股数与金额是申报原值。
| 持仓 | 股数 | 金额 | 申报均价 | 占组合比例 | 变动 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobileye Global Inc. | 50,000,000 | $484.0M | $9.68 | 78.0% | 维持 |
| Joby Aviation Inc. | 15,316,315 | $136.6M | $8.92 | 22.0% | 新建仓 |
显示全部 2 个申报的 13(f) 持仓；其中 0 个可关联到 TradingPilot 的公司库。申报均价为金额 ÷ 股数（季末口径）——这是一个平均值，不是买入或卖出价。
| 被投公司 | 内容 | 日期 | 状态 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scale AI | Intel Capital joined Scale's $1B Series F at a $13.8B valuation as a new investor (individual amount undisclosed) | 2024-05-21 | active |
Yahoo Finance (Business Wire) · 2026-10-27 · 产品
Intel and Oracle announced a planned multiyear collaboration covering current and future Xeon platforms, capacity planning and planned Diamond Rapids-based OCI offerings. Future products and roadmap coordination remain plans.
Applied Materials · 2026-10-12 · 产品
Applied Materials unveiled its Equipment and Process Innovation and Commercialization (EPIC) Center at its Sunnyvale, California, campus, a $5 billion capital investment in a 600,000-square-foot facility with nearly four acres of advanced cleanroom space. Founding partners TSMC, Intel, Samsung Electronics, Micron and SK hynix are joined by innovation partners including Broadcom, Advantest and KIOXIA.
Intel · 2026-10-12 · 产品
At the OCP Global Summit, Intel shared new technical details on the Intel GPU D-series, formerly code-named Crescent Island, which combines up to 480 GB of LPDDR5X memory, 1.5 TB/s of memory bandwidth and 1.3 petaflops of FP8 compute within a 350-watt power envelope, with customer sampling underway. Intel also introduced Xeon-based rack designs, with select Xeon 6+ configurations scaling beyond 46,000 cores per rack at 133.45 kW total rack power.
Astera Labs · 2026-10-08 · 产品
Astera Labs announced its Aries 7 PCIe 7 signal conditioning portfolio spanning smart retimers, redrivers, cable modules, optical drivers and optical TIAs, extending reach from centimeters of PCB trace to 50+ meters over optical cables spanning multiple racks. The products are expected to begin sampling in Q4 2026 to select hyperscale, OEM and NPO customers. AMD and Intel, which have each validated Aries Smart Retimers in production from PCIe 4 through 6, are collaborating with Astera Labs on the transition to PCIe 7.
GlobeNewswire · 2026-10-06 · 合作
Applied Materials is working with Intel to accelerate development of next-generation transistors, interconnects and advanced packaging, linking Applied's EPIC Center in Silicon Valley with Intel's R&D campus in Hillsboro, Oregon. No financial terms were disclosed.
The Motley Fool · 2026-10-05 · 合作
Elon Musk said on X that Terafab, the chip-manufacturing project his companies are planning in Texas, is in talks with TSMC: "Just discussions, but something may come of it." Intel joined Terafab in April and has been its only named chip partner.
Google · 2026-09-21 · 产品
Google opened pre-orders for Googlebook, its new category of Android-based laptops designed for Gemini, with initial devices built by Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo on Intel and Qualcomm processors. Prices start at $899, and devices arrive on U.S. shelves starting October 4.
Verdict · 2026-09-17 · 合作
Verdict, citing Reuters, reports SK Hynix is in discussions with Intel about producing memory chips in the US for the first time, with scenarios including SK Hynix leasing part of Intel's planned Ohio facility or forming a partnership. A source described the discussions as initial and exploratory with no definite decision reached. SK Hynix said nothing has been finalised regarding cooperation with any specific companies mentioned in the article, and Intel declined to comment while confirming ongoing Ohio investment.
PR Newswire · 2026-09-14 · 融资
Construction-AI company Buildots announced a $130 million round led by O.G. Venture Partners, with participation from Lightspeed Venture Partners, Intel Capital, Mohari Ventures, Human Capital, Qumra Capital, Avigdor Willenz, Viola Growth and Poalim Equity, bringing total capital raised to $297 million.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-11 · 产品
Intel said it has processed over one million wafers through High-NA EUV lithography, which it claims exceeds the rest of the industry combined. The figure is a process-maturity marker for its 18A and successor nodes and for its foundry pitch.
Intel · 2026-09-11 · 合作
Intel Foundry and ASML said their joint High-NA EUV work has passed one million wafers processed and is moving the tool toward production readiness. Intel remains the lead customer proving out ASML's next-generation lithography.
Reuters · 2026-09-10 · 融资
Altera, the FPGA business Intel sold a majority stake in to Silver Lake, is preparing an IPO that could raise more than $2 billion as soon as 2026. Intel retains a minority stake in the company.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-09-08 · 产品
Intel said it has processed more than one million wafers on High-NA EUV tooling, more than the rest of the industry combined, and is pioneering 6x12 photomasks to speed production and cut cost. It is a concrete marker of its advanced-node manufacturing ramp.
Barchart · 2026-08-17 · 融资
Intel completed an upsized follow-on equity offering that, including the 30-day option given to underwriters to purchase additional shares, raised about $23 billion — up from an initial $15 billion offering that was increased to $20 billion. Proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes including capital expenditures and working capital, supporting Intel Foundry expansion and data-center build-outs. The raise marks a shift toward funding the capital-intensive manufacturing and AI build-out with fresh equity rather than additional debt.
Google News: Intel · 2026-07-15 · 产品
Intel becomes the first chipmaker to deploy ASML's High-NA EUV lithography tool in mass chip production.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-03 · 产品
Intel confirmed price increases on select consumer and server CPUs, citing supply costs and demand, with some Xeon processors rising over $1,000.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-03 · 产品
A report claims Intel has resolved wafer-to-wafer yield issues on its 18A process, with production reaching up to 15,000 wafers per month at both sites.
Wccftech · 2026-07-03 · 合作
Apple reportedly plans to adopt Intel's 18A process to manufacture the A20 chip for the base iPhone 18, advancing its dual-foundry strategy.
The Mercury News · 2026-07-01 · 产品
Intel broke ground on a new chip manufacturing hub in Santa Clara, California.
Tom's Hardware · 2026-07-01 · 人事
Tesla hired 17-year Intel veteran Gary Jiang to oversee fab efforts for its Terafab project, which is tied to licensing Intel's 14A process.
2026-10-30 MarketWatch Top Stories · Why Intel’s stock saw its worst day in decades — and a $140 billion wipeout
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel stock has worst day since 1970s, wiping about $12 billion off government's stake
2026-10-30 MarketWatch Top Stories · After Intel’s historic stock drop, analysts say there’s no reason to buy the dip
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Jim Cramer reveals 3 stocks to buy — plus, why he is not selling the Intel plunge
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel plunges on a major guidance miss. What went wrong — and how to proceed
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Intel stock plunges 21% as chipmaker blames PC slowdown for weak guidance
2026-10-29 Business Wire AI · Intel Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results
2026-10-29 Yahoo Finance: TSM · Intel Stock Enters Earnings With High Hopes From Analysts
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Intel to report Q3 earnings as chip stocks continue to rebound
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel (INTC) reports earnings tomorrow: what to expect
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Intel Just Fell 24% in a Month: What Will It Take to Get INTC Stock Back Above $100?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel Just Made a $2.3 Billion Quantum Buy and Is Spending Again. Can Cash Flow Keep Up?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Ahead of Intel Earnings, Here's What Barchart Data Says Comes Next for INTC Stock
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Critical Incident Monitoring Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) - Capitalize on the $6.4B Market by 2032; Track Boeing, Draganfly, EHang, Hexagon and Intel
2026-10-27 CNBC Top News · What's behind the AI trade comeback — plus, our take on Intel's latest deal
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel faces test of recovery as Wedbush looks beyond Q3 results
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel Quantum Acquisition Might Not Be Enough to Make It a Powerhouse
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Intel to acquire Classiq to build full-stack quantum computing platform
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Can Slightly Higher Processor Revenues Aid Intel's Q3 Earnings?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: INTC · Can Higher Data Center Revenues Propel Intel's Q3 Earnings?
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 类型 | 事件 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-28 | 财报 | Intel earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. 预估 | 高 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Intel earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益超预期 · 营收超预期 |
| 2026-07-23 | Intel earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益超预期 · -7.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | Intel earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益超预期 · +23.6% |
