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TSMC (TSM) ☆

foundry & packaging · Industry Index 53 (rank #2) · $431.81 (-1.80%) · mkt cap $2.2T

ⓘ Data freshness

price: as of 2026-10-29 index: as of 2026-10-29 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-03-31 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)

The world's leading semiconductor foundry; fabricates nearly all leading-edge AI chips. Files 20-F (annual XBRL only).

Signal

signal: as of 2026-10-13

Short (~2 weeks)

0%
Low-confidence · Neutral
Conviction 0
  • News— Recent sentiment 0.37 vs 120d baseline 0.50 across 5 stories.[news][news][news]
  • Options positioning— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 49% / put 51% (net skew -0.03), unusualness 31/100. Context: earnings in 2 days.[options]
  • Price momentum— Technical flat across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.03, confidence 0.29 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Structural— Industry Index 53.4 (falling -3.0 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Medium (~3 months)

0%
Low-confidence · Neutral
Conviction 0
  • Growth trend— Revenue 41% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • Price momentum— Technical flat across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.03, confidence 0.29 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · derived internally
  • Smart money— 3 filer(s) accumulating, 5 trimming in 2026Q2 (value-weighted net -0.66).[holding][holding][holding][holding][holding]
  • Structural— Industry Index 53.4 (falling -3.0 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Long (~6 months)

50%
Bullish
Conviction 50
  • Growth trend— Revenue 41% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): wide moat / clear_leader / strong pricing ⇒ wider/leading long-horizon tilt 0.42. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — tsmc — wide moat, clear_leader, strong pricing (as of 2026-04-16)]
  • Structural— Industry Index 53.4 (falling -3.0 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · derived internally

Show Details

Relationship network

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  • KLA Corporation — supplier
  • Apple — customer · 90% · editorial estimate
  • Tesla, Inc. — customer
  • Applied Materials — supplier
  • Amkor Technology — partner
  • ASM International — supplier
  • ASMPT — supplier
  • Camtek — supplier
  • Disco Corporation — supplier
  • Lam Research — supplier
  • Nova Ltd — supplier
  • Onto Innovation — supplier
  • Tokyo Electron — supplier
  • Cerebras Systems — customer
  • Etched — customer
  • Marvell Technology — customer
  • Qualcomm — customer
  • Rambus — customer
  • SambaNova Systems — customer
  • Vanguard International Semiconductor — portfolio company · 20% · disclosed
  • AMD — customer · 90% · disclosed
  • Broadcom — customer · 70% · editorial estimate
  • NVIDIA — customer · 90% · editorial estimate
  • ASML — supplier · 90% · editorial estimate

Key relationships

  • KLA Corporation — supplier · KLA discloses Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company as a customer accounting for more than 10% of total revenues in each of the fiscal years ended June 30, 2026, 2025 and 2024, primarily in the Semiconductor Process Control segment. source: sec.gov
  • Apple — customer · 90% dependency editorial estimate · TSMC manufactures Apple's A-series and M-series (Apple Silicon) chips on its leading-edge nodes; Apple is reported to be TSMC's largest customer and to have ordered roughly half of TSMC's initial 2nm capacity for the iPhone 18. source: cnbc.com
  • Tesla, Inc. — customer · TSMC co-produces Tesla's AI5 inference chip at its Arizona fab under a dual-foundry arrangement with Samsung. source: techhq.com
  • Applied Materials — supplier · Applied Materials discloses TSMC as a greater-than-10% customer, supplying deposition, etch, CMP and other wafer-fabrication equipment. source: sec.gov
  • Amkor Technology — partner · Amkor and TSMC signed a 10-year agreement for Amkor to provide turnkey advanced packaging and test in Arizona supporting TSMC's US wafer customers. source: amkor.com
  • ASM International — supplier · ASM International, the leader in atomic layer deposition (ALD), supplies the ALD tools TSMC needs for gate-all-around transistors at advanced AI-logic nodes. source: convequity.substack.com
  • ASMPT — supplier · ASMPT supplies thermocompression bonding (TCB) tools for advanced packaging of AI and HPC chips, the packaging class used for GPU/HBM integration at foundries such as TSMC. source: digitimes.com
  • Camtek — supplier · Camtek's inspection systems serve TSMC's CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity expansion for AI accelerators. source: kavout.com
  • Disco Corporation — supplier · Disco supplies the grinding and dicing equipment used in TSMC's advanced packaging (e.g., CoWoS) and wafer thinning for AI chips. source: newsletter.semianalysis.com
  • Lam Research — supplier · TSMC uses Lam Research etch and deposition systems in its logic manufacturing lines. source: sec.gov
  • Nova Ltd — supplier · Nova supplies dimensional and materials metrology (including OCD) to TSMC for advanced-node process control. source: en.wikipedia.org
  • Onto Innovation — supplier · Onto Innovation's Dragonfly inspection/metrology platform passed TSMC's tool-qualification process for 2.5D advanced packaging used in AI GPU packages. source: beyondspx.com
  • Tokyo Electron — supplier · Tokyo Electron is a key supplier of coater/developer, etch and deposition equipment to TSMC, described as its most important customer. source: asia.nikkei.com
  • Cerebras Systems — customer · Cerebras discloses reliance on TSMC to manufacture its wafer-scale AI processors. source: sec.gov
  • Etched — customer · Etched's Sohu transformer inference ASIC is fabricated on TSMC's 4nm process. source: techcrunch.com
  • Marvell Technology — customer · Marvell relies on TSMC's advanced process nodes to manufacture its custom AI ASICs and data-center silicon. source: sec.gov
  • Qualcomm — customer · Qualcomm uses TSMC, alongside Samsung, to manufacture its advanced mobile and compute SoCs. source: sec.gov
  • Rambus — customer · Rambus is fabless and depends on foundries such as TSMC to manufacture its memory interface chips. source: sec.gov
  • SambaNova Systems — customer · SambaNova's SN40L RDU is fabricated on TSMC's 5nm process with CoWoS advanced packaging. source: servethehome.com
  • Vanguard International Semiconductor — portfolio company · 20% dependency · TSMC is the largest shareholder of Vanguard International Semiconductor, historically owning roughly 27-28% (reducing toward ~19% after a 2026 stake sale). source: trendforce.com
  • AMD — customer · 90% dependency · AMD's 10-K discloses reliance on TSMC for substantially all leading-edge wafer fabrication. source: sec.gov
  • Broadcom — customer · 70% dependency editorial estimate · Broadcom is fabless; TSMC fabricates its leading-edge networking and custom AI accelerator silicon. source: sec.gov
  • NVIDIA — customer · 90% dependency editorial estimate · TSMC fabricates substantially all of NVIDIA's leading-edge data-center GPUs; NVIDIA's 10-K discloses dependence on a small number of foundries. source: sec.gov
  • ASML — supplier · 90% dependency editorial estimate · ASML is the sole supplier of the EUV lithography systems TSMC requires for leading-edge nodes. source: asml.com

Options positioning

delayed · aggregate: as of 2026-10-29
  • Call vs put volume: 26,101 calls · 20,027 puts — tilt +13.2% toward calls
  • Vol/OI turnover: 0.11×
  • Premium ($ notional proxy): $16.7M calls · $44.0M puts — tilt -45.0% toward puts
  • OTM tilt: +23.6% toward OTM calls
  • IV skew (put − call): +13.7%