Compare moats
Up to three covered companies, band by band. Every call is a curated editorial judgment, never a disclosed figure — and every band carries its cited basis.
| Applied Digital | MongoDB | Ciena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moat rating | none The FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) shows contracted revenue, not a demonstrated competitive edge. About 1,410 MW is leased under 15-year take-or-pay, non-cancellable base terms worth about $36.2 billion, but only about 100 MW of the roughly 1.5 GW that is contracted and either operating or under construction was operating and earning revenue at May 31, 2026, and Item 1A says "lessees may have the right to terminate applicable leases if there are significant delays in construction." Item 1A also concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time," and the Competition section names 13 power-advantaged developers the company competes with. Signed leases give revenue visibility, but the filing does not show a durable advantage. | narrow The FY2026 10-K frames a 'rapidly evolving and highly competitive' database market where the principal rivals — 'legacy database providers and large cloud providers' — hold explicit advantages: 'longer operating histories, more established relationships … significantly greater financial, technical, marketing or other resources … broader global distribution,' and can offer competing products 'at a low cost or no cost.' A developer-mindshare and switching-cost position is defensible but not wide against that field. | narrow Ciena's FY2025 10-K describes a technology position that has held but does not lock customers in. On the durable side, the strategy is to "build on and expand our global leadership in optical networking", resting on "our proprietary WaveLogic™ coherent modem technology" and approximately 2,400 issued patents with 800 more pending as of December 2, 2025. On the limiting side, the same filing says competition "remains intense" and features "aggressive selling efforts, including using significant pricing pressure to displace incumbent vendors", that "our customer contracts generally do not include minimum or guaranteed purchases", and that "there is no assurance that we will maintain our incumbency". Concentration cuts the same way: the five largest customers contributed approximately 50% of fiscal 2025 revenue, one cloud provider approximately 18%. Its income statement reports gross profit of $1,878.9M on $4,386.5M of revenue in FY2023, $1,719.6M on $4,015.0M in FY2024 and $2,004.9M on $4,769.5M in FY2025. Self-described leadership in its segments, with customers that are re-won deal by deal, is a narrow moat. |
| Moat type | none The 10-K claims three advantages: power-advantaged sites (it believes securing power and interconnection ahead of demand is 'the principal constraint on new HPC capacity and a core differentiator for us from many of our competitors'), a standardized 'franchise-style' design, and hyperscaler master service and master telecom service agreements 'that are difficult to obtain.' The filing does not show any of them to be durable. Its Competition section says competition 'centers on securing and developing sites with access to large-scale, reliable, and cost-competitive power and interconnection' and names 13 power-advantaged developers going after the same leases, and Item 1A concedes it lacks the resources to compete with larger providers. Signed leases are take-or-pay and non-cancellable, so a tenant leaving for convenience owes 'the full remaining contractual value,' but that is contractual lock-in on each lease rather than a moat source, so no moat type is assigned. | switching costs A database is the system an application is built on: the 10-K states 'a database directly impacts an application's performance, scalability, flexibility and reliability,' and Atlas is 'our managed multi-cloud database-as-a-service' running the customer's live workloads — re-platforming a database is a rewrite, not a swap. | intangibles ip The FY2025 10-K locates the advantage in owned technology rather than in customer lock-in: "The success of our business and technology leadership depends significantly on our proprietary and internally developed technology." That technology is centred on WaveLogic, which Ciena's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings presentation (the source of the first two product rows below) defines as "Ciena's proprietary family of coherent optical chips — the core technology inside most of our networking products", and it reaches beyond Ciena's own systems: the 10-K's coherent pluggable transceivers use WaveLogic "for use within our systems and third-party equipment". Switching costs are the weaker candidate, because the same filing describes operators disaggregating line systems from modems and competitors using price to displace incumbents. |
| Leadership | behind The 10-K makes no leadership claim and gives no ranking or share figure. Item 1A concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time" and that some rivals have "substantially greater liquidity and financial resources than we do." Its Competition section places APLD against established operators (Digital Realty, Equinix), hyperscalers that build their own capacity, independent developers and 13 named power-advantaged developers (IREN, Cipher Digital, TeraWulf, Hut 8, Riot, CleanSpark, HIVE, Core Scientific, Bitdeer, Galaxy Digital, Fermi, Keel Infrastructure, MARA). | co leader The 10-K positions MongoDB as the leading document database by developer mindshare but names 'legacy database providers and large cloud providers' as better-resourced rivals across the broader database market — a category leader within a market it does not lead overall. | co leader Slide 6 of Ciena's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings presentation of 2026-09-03 (https://s25.q4cdn.com/550667411/files/content_files/Ex-99-2-2026-Q3-Earnings-Presentation_FINAL-1.pdf) lists "#1 in Data Center Interconnect Globally" (Dell'Oro Group), "#1 in Total Optical Networking in N. America" (Cignal AI, Dell'Oro Group, Omdia) and "#1 in Submarine Networks Globally" (Omdia), with market share measured as of Q2 2026 excluding China, and a caveat that Ciena "has not independently verified" the analyst data. On the company's own presentation of that data, that is the front rank in its core segments, but the presentation does not claim the global lead in total optical networking, and the FY2025 10-K says competition is "dominated by a small number of very large, multi-national companies" - Nokia, Huawei, Cisco, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and ZTE - many of which have "substantially greater financial, operational and marketing resources, and broader product offerings". A shared front rank, led by Ciena where the company-reported rankings measure it, rather than an uncontested one. |
| Pricing power | weak Item 1A says "Due to the limited number of hyperscalers, we expect that a limited number of customers will continue to account for a high percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future," and that if customers' equipment usage declines or they discontinue use of its facilities, APLD "may be compelled to lower our lease prices in some instances or risk losing a significant customer." One customer was 59% of FY2026 revenue from continuing operations. Take-or-pay, non-cancellable terms protect contracted revenue over the base term, and Note 19 reports a $39.1M HPC Hosting segment profit on $385.3M of segment revenue in FY2026, but those terms are agreed with a small group of concentrated buyers. | moderate Owning the IP and the roadmap ('the determination of which features are included in our free or paid offerings') gives real list-price control, but the same filing flags competitors offering database products 'at a low cost or no cost basis,' which caps it. | moderate Moderate, and improving. The FY2025 10-K's income statement reports gross profit of $1,878.9M on $4,386.5M, $1,719.6M on $4,015.0M and $2,004.9M on $4,769.5M of revenue for FY2023-FY2025, in a market where, the filing says, rivals use "significant pricing pressure to displace incumbent vendors" and "price and total cost of ownership" heads the list of competitive factors. Since then the AI build-out has lifted gross margin: Ciena's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings presentation (https://s25.q4cdn.com/550667411/files/content_files/Ex-99-2-2026-Q3-Earnings-Presentation_FINAL-1.pdf) reports GAAP gross margin of 45.4% against 41.3% a year earlier, on revenue up 37% year over year, and guides fiscal 2027 adjusted gross margin to 45% to 46%. The presentation does not say how much of that is price rather than mix or volume, and the 10-K warns that AI-related demand has led to "a constrained supply environment" that can raise component costs. |
| Summary | Applied Digital designs, builds and operates purpose-built, liquid-cooled HPC data centers, which it calls 'AI factories', and leases the capacity to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers. At May 31, 2026 its 10-K lists five campuses (Polaris Forge 1-3 and Delta Forge 1-2) with about 1,410 MW contracted under roughly 15-year take-or-pay, non-cancellable leases worth about $36.2 billion over the base terms. The filing claims three sources of advantage: it controls power-advantaged sites, it uses a standardized 'franchise-style' design built to deliver about 150 MW in about 14 to 18 months, and it holds hyperscaler master agreements that are 'difficult to obtain.' The same document shows how early the company is. About 100 MW was operating and earning revenue. One customer was 59% of FY2026 revenue from continuing operations. It competes with Digital Realty, Equinix, hyperscalers that build their own capacity and 13 named power-advantaged developers, and it concedes that it lacks the resources to compete with larger providers. Signed leases give long-dated revenue visibility, but the filing does not show a durable competitive advantage. | MongoDB monetizes developer mindshare that began as open source: the 10-K notes 'we own the intellectual property of our offerings since we are the creators of the software,' which lets it run a 'proprietary software subscription business model' and control the roadmap. The durable asset is the document-model install base and Atlas's managed multi-cloud workloads, positioned for AI as 'the underlying database … capable of processing queries against rich and complex data structures.' The counterweight, in the filing's own words, is that the large cloud providers it depends on for Atlas hosting are also its best-resourced competitors. | Ciena is the optical-transport specialist among networking vendors - its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings presentation calls it "the only pure-play optical systems provider operating at scale today" - and its FY2025 10-K builds the business on one proprietary technology, the WaveLogic coherent modem, carried into the 6500 Packet-Optical Platform, Waveserver data center interconnect systems, the 6500 RLS photonic line system and coherent pluggable transceivers sold for Ciena's own systems and third-party equipment. Analyst rankings the company cites in that presentation, which it says it "has not independently verified", put Ciena first in data center interconnect globally, in total optical networking in North America and in submarine networks globally (Q2 2026, excluding China). The AI build-out has turned it into more of a cloud supplier than a telecom one: cloud providers were 53% of fiscal Q3 2026 revenue, revenue rose 37% year over year, and GAAP gross margin reached 45.4%. The 10-K is equally clear about why the position is narrow rather than wide. Competition is "dominated by a small number of very large, multi-national companies", many with greater resources; rivals use pricing to displace incumbents; contracts carry no minimum or guaranteed purchases; the five largest customers were about half of fiscal 2025 revenue; and disaggregation lets an operator buy the line system from one vendor and the modem from another, while the push into data-center interconnects brings Ciena up against Marvell, Credo and Broadcom. |
| Chain position | Developer and landlord of power-advantaged, liquid-cooled AI data-center capacity, leased long-term to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers. | Layer-10 application-layer data platform — the operational database under AI and general software workloads. | Ciena sits between optical-component suppliers and the operators building AI-era networks. Upstream, its FY2025 10-K says its products include "optical and electronic components for which reliable, high-volume supply is often available only from sole or limited sources", built by contract manufacturers with facilities in Canada, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States; at November 1, 2025 it carried $826.2 million of inventory and $2.1 billion of purchase commitments. Downstream, the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings presentation puts direct cloud providers at 53% of the quarter's revenue against 37% for service providers, and describes its products as the links between data centers (data center interconnect) and between distributed AI training clusters ("scale-across"). |
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| Long-horizon vote | -0.20 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | +0.13 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | +0.13 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. |