Compare moats
Up to three covered companies, band by band. Every call is a curated editorial judgment, never a disclosed figure — and every band carries its cited basis.
| Constellation Energy | Applied Digital | Modine Manufacturing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moat rating | wide The FY2025 10-K describes the nation's largest nuclear fleet — approximately 22 GW across 14 stations producing 68% of 2025 electric supply — running at a 94.7% capacity factor that 'has been approximately four percentage points better than the industry average annually since 2013', with NRC licences extending to 2054 and an IRA nuclear production tax credit floor from 2024. | none The FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) shows contracted revenue, not a demonstrated competitive edge. About 1,410 MW is leased under 15-year take-or-pay, non-cancellable base terms worth about $36.2 billion, but only about 100 MW of the roughly 1.5 GW that is contracted and either operating or under construction was operating and earning revenue at May 31, 2026, and Item 1A says "lessees may have the right to terminate applicable leases if there are significant delays in construction." Item 1A also concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time," and the Competition section names 13 power-advantaged developers the company competes with. Signed leases give revenue visibility, but the filing does not show a durable advantage. | none Modine's FY2026 Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 31 March 2026, filed 2026-05-27 as EDGAR accession 0001104659-26-066795; read from the copy on Modine's investor-relations site) describes competitive markets and no structural protection. It says "Most of our products are sold in competitive markets", that "pricing pressures from our customers and pricing actions of our competitors" may "require us to adjust the prices of products to stay competitive", that it experiences "competition from companies in other parts of the world that enjoy economic advantages, such as lower labor costs", and that if it cannot differentiate with technology "we may experience price erosion, lower sales, and lower profit margins." Stored fundamentals from Modine's 10-Ks show gross profit of $365.5 million on $2,212.7 million of revenue in fiscal 2019 and $389.4 million on $2,297.9 million in fiscal 2023; the FY2026 10-K reports gross margin of 24.9 percent for fiscal 2025 and 23.0 percent for fiscal 2026, and the Q1 fiscal 2027 release (2026-07-29) reports 20.8 percent. Customers are concentrated: the ten largest were 49 percent of fiscal 2026 net sales and "one global technology customer" about 11 percent. The strongest counter-evidence is in data centres, where on the Q4 fiscal 2026 call (https://s205.q4cdn.com/270741342/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/Modine_Transcript-Q4-FY26.pdf) the CEO announced an agreement under which "we will guarantee capacity to supply more than 4 billion of data center cooling products during calendar years 2027 through 2029"; but that is a capacity commitment to one existing customer, and the CFO added "Short of an LTA, we don't have multiyear POs. And what this one did is it gave us a really high confidence in a big portion of our two-, three-year outlook." Fast growth in a capacity-short market, without a protected position or a durable margin premium, is not shown to be a moat, so the band is none. |
| Moat type | cost scale The cited edge is operating cost at scale: average refuelling outages of 22 days in 2025 against industry averages of 33 and 38 days in 2024 and 2023, a capacity factor about four points above the industry every year since 2013, and 'significant economies of scale' in what the filing calls the largest US customer-facing energy platform. | none The 10-K claims three advantages: power-advantaged sites (it believes securing power and interconnection ahead of demand is 'the principal constraint on new HPC capacity and a core differentiator for us from many of our competitors'), a standardized 'franchise-style' design, and hyperscaler master service and master telecom service agreements 'that are difficult to obtain.' The filing does not show any of them to be durable. Its Competition section says competition 'centers on securing and developing sites with access to large-scale, reliable, and cost-competitive power and interconnection' and names 13 power-advantaged developers going after the same leases, and Item 1A concedes it lacks the resources to compete with larger providers. Signed leases are take-or-pay and non-cancellable, so a tenant leaving for convenience owes 'the full remaining contractual value,' but that is contractual lock-in on each lease rather than a moat source, so no moat type is assigned. | none No moat source is demonstrated in the filings. The 10-K says "our business as a whole is not materially dependent upon any particular patent or license, or any particular group of patents or licenses", although Item 1A says intellectual property "plays an important role in maintaining our competitive position in a number of the markets we serve." Switching costs are the closest candidate: the 10-K says customers ask Modine, "as well as their other primary suppliers", for R&D, design and validation support, and on the Q1 fiscal 2027 call (https://s205.q4cdn.com/270741342/files/doc_financials/2027/q1/Modine_-Transcript-Q1-FY27.pdf) the CEO described a product designed with a specific hyperscaler "in probably the third iteration of the design cycle". But the same 10-K says "Generally, we supply products to our customers on the basis of individual purchase orders received from them", that long-term sales agreements are "typically three to five years in duration", and that its 80/20 pricing strategy "may result in a lower overall win rate for new business", which describes contestable rather than locked-in business. Scale is not claimed as an advantage either: the company competes with "many manufacturers of heat transfer and HVAC&R solutions, some of which are divisions of larger companies". The type is none. |
| Leadership | clear leader The 10-K states Constellation is 'the largest nuclear energy company in the U.S.', is 'the nation's largest energy supplier for C&I and residential power volumes' based on EEI data, and has 'over 32% of the C&I market share of direct customer business'. | behind The 10-K makes no leadership claim and gives no ranking or share figure. Item 1A concedes "We do not have the resources to compete with larger providers of similar products or services at this time" and that some rivals have "substantially greater liquidity and financial resources than we do." Its Competition section places APLD against established operators (Digital Realty, Equinix), hyperscalers that build their own capacity, independent developers and 13 named power-advantaged developers (IREN, Cipher Digital, TeraWulf, Hut 8, Riot, CleanSpark, HIVE, Core Scientific, Bitdeer, Galaxy Digital, Fermi, Keel Infrastructure, MARA). | fast follower The 10-K gives no share or rank and names no competitor; it says only "We compete with many manufacturers of heat transfer and HVAC&R solutions, some of which are divisions of larger companies." The independent view is Dell'Oro Group's 3Q 2025 data center physical infrastructure release (2025-12-10, https://www.delloro.com/news/data-center-physical-infrastructure-market-expands-18-percent-y-y-in-3q-2025/), which grouped Modine with rising entrants: "Emerging competitors continued to gain momentum, with Aaon scaling its data center thermal business by an order of magnitude within a few quarters, supported by a very healthy backlog as hyperscalers broaden their supplier base. Modine also strengthened its position, securing notable hyperscale wins that reinforce its rising relevance in large AI campus deployments." On the Q4 fiscal 2026 call the CEO said "From a market demand standpoint, we're in a great competitive position", which is the company's own view. A supplier gaining ground with hyperscalers, described by a tracker as of rising relevance rather than as a leader, is a fast follower. |
| Pricing power | moderate The 10-K states 'While providing customers with a competitive price is a key focus' in retail, on roughly two-year average C&I contract terms with 77% power and 84% gas renewal rates in 2025, and the nuclear fleet's downside is set by the IRA nuclear PTC 'as unit revenues decline below levels established in the IRA'; SEC-reported operating income was 13.6% of revenue in 2025. | weak Item 1A says "Due to the limited number of hyperscalers, we expect that a limited number of customers will continue to account for a high percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future," and that if customers' equipment usage declines or they discontinue use of its facilities, APLD "may be compelled to lower our lease prices in some instances or risk losing a significant customer." One customer was 59% of FY2026 revenue from continuing operations. Take-or-pay, non-cancellable terms protect contracted revenue over the base term, and Note 19 reports a $39.1M HPC Hosting segment profit on $385.3M of segment revenue in FY2026, but those terms are agreed with a small group of concentrated buyers. | weak The filing describes price as something Modine defends rather than sets. Item 1A says "Our sales levels and margins could be adversely affected by pricing pressures from our customers and pricing actions of our competitors", and that its 80/20 pricing strategy, with "clear, strategic profit margin targets for new sales", "may result in a lower overall win rate for new business." Cost recovery is mechanical and lagged: contract adjustments are "limited to the underlying cost of the material", "typically do not include related metals premiums or fabrication costs", and can take "a three-month to one-year lag"; on the Q4 fiscal 2026 call the CFO said "we'll recover tariffs through surcharges and mitigate increasing metals prices with pricing mechanisms in our customer contracts." The fiscal 2025 margin gain in Climate Solutions came "primarily due to favorable sales mix and the favorable impact of commercial pricing settlements"; company gross margin then fell 190 basis points to 23.0 percent in fiscal 2026 and was 20.8 percent in Q1 fiscal 2027 (https://s205.q4cdn.com/270741342/files/doc_financials/2027/q1/Modine-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027-Results.pdf). On the Q1 fiscal 2027 call the CEO said the company is "taking decisive pricing actions to offset inflationary cost increases, including materials and tariffs", which is cost recovery, not evidence of a price premium. |
| Summary | Constellation pairs the largest US nuclear fleet with the largest competitive retail book, which lets it sell around-the-clock carbon-free power under long-term contracts such as the 20-year Microsoft PPA restarting Three Mile Island Unit 1 as the 835 MW Crane Clean Energy Center. | Applied Digital designs, builds and operates purpose-built, liquid-cooled HPC data centers, which it calls 'AI factories', and leases the capacity to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers. At May 31, 2026 its 10-K lists five campuses (Polaris Forge 1-3 and Delta Forge 1-2) with about 1,410 MW contracted under roughly 15-year take-or-pay, non-cancellable leases worth about $36.2 billion over the base terms. The filing claims three sources of advantage: it controls power-advantaged sites, it uses a standardized 'franchise-style' design built to deliver about 150 MW in about 14 to 18 months, and it holds hyperscaler master agreements that are 'difficult to obtain.' The same document shows how early the company is. About 100 MW was operating and earning revenue. One customer was 59% of FY2026 revenue from continuing operations. It competes with Digital Realty, Equinix, hyperscalers that build their own capacity and 13 named power-advantaged developers, and it concedes that it lacks the resources to compete with larger providers. Signed leases give long-dated revenue visibility, but the filing does not show a durable competitive advantage. | Modine makes thermal management products in two groups, per its FY2026 10-K: Climate Solutions (data centre cooling, heat transfer coils and coatings, refrigeration and power-generation coolers, and HVAC heating and indoor-air-quality products) and Performance Technologies (heat exchangers and cooling modules for vehicles, off-highway equipment and generator sets). Data centre products rose to 35 percent of fiscal 2026 net sales from 25 percent; they include chillers, dry coolers, precision air handling units, CRAC and CRAH units, fan walls, rear-door heat exchangers, coolant distribution units and immersion solutions, sold to hyperscale, colocation, NeoCloud and edge customers. Fiscal 2026 net sales were $3.2 billion, up 23 percent, and on the Q4 fiscal 2026 call the CEO said data centre sales "increased 73% to 1.1 billion" and announced a capacity agreement covering "more than 4 billion of data center cooling products during calendar years 2027 through 2029" with an existing customer. Modine plans to spin off Performance Technologies and combine it with Gentherm, which it expects to close by the end of calendar 2026, leaving a data centre and commercial HVAC company. An independent tracker, Dell'Oro Group (2025-12-10), described Modine among "emerging competitors" that "strengthened its position, securing notable hyperscale wins". The limits are in the 10-K and recent results: most products are sold "in competitive markets" under customer pricing pressure, the ten largest customers were 49 percent of sales, no single patent is material, and gross margin was 23.0 percent in fiscal 2026 and 20.8 percent in Q1 fiscal 2027, when the Data Centers segment's gross margin fell 960 basis points to 20.2 percent on capacity expansion costs and supply shortages. Strong demand and customer co-design are real, but the filings show no protected position or margin premium, so Modine is rated as having no moat. |
| Chain position | Generator and retailer in one — the fleet is the physical supply behind the long-term carbon-free contracts it sells to large corporate buyers. | Developer and landlord of power-advantaged, liquid-cooled AI data-center capacity, leased long-term to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers. | Modine supplies facility-level cooling for AI data centres, chiefly chillers and air handling units with a smaller CDU line; on the Q1 fiscal 2027 call the CEO said order growth came from "the three largest customers that we have that are hyperscaler and Neocloud", and the 10-K names one global technology customer at about 11 percent of fiscal 2026 sales. |
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| Long-horizon vote | +0.38 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | -0.20 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | -0.06 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. |