Compare moats
Up to three covered companies, band by band. Every call is a curated editorial judgment, never a disclosed figure — and every band carries its cited basis.
| Semtech | MongoDB | SAP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moat rating | narrow Semtech’s FY2026 10-K (fiscal year ended January 25, 2026) supports a narrow moat and no more. On the durable side, it owns the LoRa® radio franchise - “our LoRa® devices and wireless radio frequency technology” - which IoT Analytics’ LPWAN Market 2024 release (https://iot-analytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/INSIGHTS-RELEASE-LPWAN-Market-2024.pdf) ranks first outside China at 41% of LPWAN connections, and it argues that scarce analog talent “has historically made it more difficult for new suppliers in the analog market to quickly develop products and gain significant market share.” On the limiting side, the same filing says its patents do not “create definitive competitive barriers to entry”, that average selling prices “have historically decreased rapidly”, that some customers “can stop incorporating our products into their own products with limited notice to us and suffer little or no penalty”, and that customers in China (including Hong Kong) were 47% of fiscal 2026 net sales. The record is uneven: its income statement shows gross profit of $296,250 thousand on net sales of $868,758 thousand in fiscal 2024, $456,528 thousand on $909,287 thousand in fiscal 2025 and $542,144 thousand on $1,049,975 thousand in fiscal 2026, and the 10-K says difficulties “have adversely impacted” its ability to realise the benefits of the Sierra Wireless acquisition. | narrow The FY2026 10-K frames a 'rapidly evolving and highly competitive' database market where the principal rivals — 'legacy database providers and large cloud providers' — hold explicit advantages: 'longer operating histories, more established relationships … significantly greater financial, technical, marketing or other resources … broader global distribution,' and can offer competing products 'at a low cost or no cost.' A developer-mindshare and switching-cost position is defensible but not wide against that field. | wide The 20-F describes a migration market made of SAP's own customers: RISE with SAP 'is targeted at our installed base customers and helps them on their journey from legacy ERP systems to SAP Business Suite' — an installed base so entrenched that moving WITHIN the vendor is a multi-year journey, with the Q2 2026 statement showing €22.9 billion of contractually committed cloud backlog, up 27%. |
| Moat type | intangibles ip The defensible assets the 10-K describes are intellectual: the LoRa® radio technology, analog and mixed-signal design expertise - “The development of IP and the resulting proprietary products is a critical success factor for us” - and 303 U.S. and 541 foreign patents. The filing itself discounts the patent part (“we do not believe they create definitive competitive barriers to entry”), which leaves the moat in proprietary technology and scarce design know-how rather than in scale or lock-in: Semtech outsources most manufacturing, sold 74% of fiscal 2026 net sales through independent distributors, and its customer agreements “do not require them to purchase a minimum quantity of our products”. | switching costs A database is the system an application is built on: the 10-K states 'a database directly impacts an application's performance, scalability, flexibility and reliability,' and Atlas is 'our managed multi-cloud database-as-a-service' running the customer's live workloads — re-platforming a database is a rewrite, not a swap. | switching costs ERP is the system of record for a company's core processes; the 20-F's own strategy language — SAP Business Suite as 'the destination for all our customers,' with AI-enabled migration tools easing the journey off SAP's own legacy systems — is a switching-cost moat described from the inside. |
| Leadership | fast follower LoRa, the technology Semtech owns, leads outside China; elsewhere Semtech is contesting the front rank. IoT Analytics’ March 21, 2024 release states “When excluding all LPWAN data from China, LoRa has the leading share of global LPWAN connections at 41%—more than double NB-IoT’s share”, though “Globally, NB-IoT has the largest share of LPWAN connections at approximately 54%” and “LoRa’s share of LPWAN connections is decreasing”. In data-center optics, management said on the fiscal Q2 2027 call (TradingKey machine transcript, https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262131465-tradingkey) that at “800 gig, we had the market share about 18%. So over the 2 years, we have grown the market share well over 50% for 800 gig”, a company figure; an independent September 2024 newsletter (Deep Fundamental) had instead named Marvell and MACOM “the dominant players” in drivers and TIAs and said Semtech “has struggled to keep pace since the transition to 200G”. A third-party lead measured at the technology level rather than as Semtech’s own share, a company-reported share that the only independent view contradicts, and no ranking for its other lines do not evidence co-leadership, so the band is fast follower. | co leader The 10-K positions MongoDB as the leading document database by developer mindshare but names 'legacy database providers and large cloud providers' as better-resourced rivals across the broader database market — a category leader within a market it does not lead overall. | clear leader Grounded in scale and position rather than an asserted share: the 20-F describes a market segment consisting of SAP's own legacy estates (RISE), and the Q2 statement shows Cloud ERP Suite revenue of €5.5 billion in a single quarter, up 25% — no competitor filing this site tracks describes an installed-base market of its own. |
| Pricing power | moderate The 10-K describes a market where prices fall: “In the past, we have reduced the average selling prices of our products in anticipation of future competitive pricing pressures”, and Semtech’s products “are typically differentiated in performance but are priced competitively”. Margins have nonetheless climbed with the data-center mix: the fiscal Q2 2027 release (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000088941/000008894126000028/smtc-07262026x8k991.htm) reports GAAP gross margin of 53.8% against 52.1% a year earlier and guides fiscal Q3 adjusted gross margin to 58.3% +/- 100 bps, or 63.9% excluding the business held for sale. The release does not separate price from mix. | moderate Owning the IP and the roadmap ('the determination of which features are included in our free or paid offerings') gives real list-price control, but the same filing flags competitors offering database products 'at a low cost or no cost basis,' which caps it. | moderate Q2 2026: total revenue up 9% with non-IFRS operating profit up 7% — profit growing slightly behind revenue, and the 2026 profit outlook 'updated to reflect dilutive impact from Dremio and Prior Labs acquisitions' rather than raised. |
| Summary | Semtech is an analog and mixed-signal chipmaker being reshaped around two franchises. The first is AI data-center connectivity in its Signal Integrity segment - FiberEdge TIAs and drivers for optical transceivers and CopperEdge redrivers for active copper cables - whose net sales the FY2026 10-K reports at $322,608 thousand in fiscal 2026 against $177,033 thousand in fiscal 2024; the March 2026 HieFo acquisition added foundries that make devices for data-center interconnects. The second is LoRa, the long-range, low-power radio that IoT Analytics ranks as the leading LPWAN technology outside China. Around them sit protection devices, sensing and power products, and the IoT Systems business inherited from Sierra Wireless, whose cellular-module unit Semtech has agreed to sell to Compal Electronics for US$62 million (ABI Research, September 9, 2026, https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/insight/7788486-compal-electronics-takes-semtechs-mantle-t). Momentum is strong: the fiscal Q2 2027 release reports record net sales of $341.9 million, up 33% year over year, and management said data-center revenue hit a record $100 million in the quarter. But the 10-K is frank about limits - rapid ASP erosion, customers that can drop its parts with little notice, 47% of sales to China, competitors that are “much larger and better resourced than we are”, and patents that do not bar entry. Proprietary technology in two growing niches, rather than a locked-in customer base, makes the moat narrow. | MongoDB monetizes developer mindshare that began as open source: the 10-K notes 'we own the intellectual property of our offerings since we are the creators of the software,' which lets it run a 'proprietary software subscription business model' and control the roadmap. The durable asset is the document-model install base and Atlas's managed multi-cloud workloads, positioned for AI as 'the underlying database … capable of processing queries against rich and complex data structures.' The counterweight, in the filing's own words, is that the large cloud providers it depends on for Atlas hosting are also its best-resourced competitors. | SAP monetizes the stickiest software estate in enterprise computing twice over: a declining on-premise support stream and a growing cloud one, with the 20-F's 'flywheel' — Business AI enhancing Cloud ERP, which feeds Business Data Cloud, which fuels the AI — as the argument that the transition compounds rather than cannibalizes. The caveat is regulatory, in the filing's own words: the European Commission opened formal proceedings over on-premise maintenance and support policies, with suggested remedies market-tested in 2025 and 'pending final EC approval in 2026' — the moat's support-pricing half is under review. |
| Chain position | Semtech sells mostly through independent distributors (74% of fiscal 2026 net sales) to OEMs. In AI data centers its FiberEdge and CopperEdge parts go into the optical transceivers and active copper cables that module and cable makers build, and the 10-K says hyperscale cloud providers “are generally our indirect customers”. Two customers took 14% and 11% of fiscal 2026 net sales, and customers in China (including Hong Kong) 47%. | Layer-10 application-layer data platform — the operational database under AI and general software workloads. | Layer-10 application incumbent embedding AI (Joule, Business AI) into the enterprise system of record. |
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| Long-horizon vote | +0.06 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | +0.13 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. | +0.38 at weight 0.20 · swarm neutral Editorial prior, not backtested. |